6 Stocks for the Contrarian-Minded

To a casual observer, Boeing (BA) might seem like a company that used to make airplanes but now mostly manufactures excuses. Its new fuel-sipping wide-body, the 787 Dreamliner, attracts heaps of press, but mostly for launch delays. Five years ago Boeing promised eight planes delivered by 2007 and another 35 in 2008. The public indeed got its first view of the plane in 2007: One was rolled out of a hangar on July 8 (as in 7/8/07) with some parts only temporarily fastened. But Boeing has delayed its maiden flight five times, most recently in November. Analysts now expect customers to begin receiving planes in early 2010, two years late.

Boeing's stock has lost 54% in a year, or 15 percentage points more than the broad market. Blame the 787 delays, but also a dismal world economy. Some forecasters think plane deliveries will fall by half over the next five years. For good measure, blame Boeing's laborers. Machinists' recent 58-day work stoppage to voice dissatisfaction with job security was akin to a hunger strike to protest malnourishment.

But be assured that Boeing still makes planes. It should deliver 364 commercial ones this year, mostly medium-range 737s but also a few '47s and '67s and more than five dozen '77s. Granted, 364 is well fewer than Boeing delivered last year (441) or the year before (398), but it's 158 more than it delivered in 1995, when the stock price was last this low. Since then, sales and earnings per share have tripled. The company's defense business has grown from less than a quarter of sales to more than half.

And so Boeing might be too cheap. Sales are set to dip nearly 7% this year. Thanks to "fixed-cost deleveraging" -- selling less stuff while paying for the same plants and workers -- per-share profits are expected to fall 11%. Wall Street expects them to bounce back and then some next year, rising 29%. The most pessimistic of 23 forecasts has 2009 earnings increasing 7% from this year's consensus. Most analysts recommend a purchase of shares. Frankly, I prefer to see a little more gloom from the prognosticators when hunting for contrarian stock picks. But Boeing's share-price tumble, and its present valuation of less than nine times beaten-down 2008 earnings, makes it look unloved enough.

The 787 delays aren't yet reason enough to shun shares. Production problems are common among flying machines made of four million parts, and Boeing might be in better shape than its competitor. Airbus is three years late in merely finalizing plans for its answer to the 787: the A350. Shipments aren't expected until at least 2014. So while Boeing's customers are frowning, and might even scale back orders for lack of funds, they're not deserting.

On Monday, Boeing gave investors slightly more reason to tuck shares away and await better days. It increased its quarterly dividend to 42 cents a share from 40 cents. That puts the stock's yield at 4%, a percentage point more than the S&P 500's yield. Payments look plenty affordable, given Boeing's manageable debt and, this year notwithstanding, its ample profit.

Boeing turned up recently on a search for companies that have underperformed the market over the past year, and now carry healthy dividend yields and look cheap relative to their asset values.