Fatten Up on Cheap Restaurant Stocks

In response to the weakened economy, consumers are, rightly so, cutting back on their extraneous spending. The amount of money consumers borrow using credit or charge cards has decreased four out of the last five months, and in February, it fell off a cliff dropping by an annual rate of 9.7%. On a percentage basis, that's the largest one-month drop since 1978.

If you want to tighten your belt, cutting out restaurant dining is certainly one of the easier ways to do it. Yet intense competition means that many eateries offer substantial value. Eating out is a luxury, but it's a rather affordable luxury. While sales at restaurants were down 1.3% last year on an inflation adjusted basis, consumers might easily reacquire the taste for dining out should the economy improve even a marginal amount.

And in an era in which government, now a large equity owner in banking and finance, has overstepped some historic boundaries in recent months, it would be nearly impossible for me to imagine Uncle Sam giving TARP dollars to a Cracker Barrel Old Country Store and Restaurant (CBRL) or Jack in the Box (JACK). Laid off fast food employees aren't as visually sympathetic as a down-on-his-luck steelworker or assembly-line worker at GM (GM).

Despite the penny pinching, many restaurant stocks have made monster moves off their fall 2008 lows. However, some still trade at a fraction of the prices they fetched in recent years.

One to consider is Steak and Shake (SNS), a casual diner which operates 502 locations in 21 states, primarily in the South and Midwest. Warren Buffett has one thing right: hamburgers and shakes won't ever go out of style. And as frugal consumers seek even modest improvements over low-end fast foods, Steak ‘n Shake could benefit. They don't serve hamburgers at Steak ‘n Shake but “Steakburgers,” a trademarked name that harkens back to founder Gus Belt's tradition of grinding sirloin and T-bone steaks into burgers as customers looked on. The stock has more than doubled since its low last fall but still trades at less than half its price back in 2007.

Steak 'n Shake (SNS) - 3 years

California Pizza Kitchen (CPKI) has more than 230 locations in 31 states and deftly survived the low-carb craze. Like Steak n' Shake, CPK has a reputation for higher-than-average quality and is widely credited with making California-style “gourmet” pizza famous. Customers often return to see how the chain's chefs have updated their dishes. Now popular is a grilled tandoori chicken pizza with mango, onions and Mozzarella cheese.

For many American families, a night out at CPK is a treat, and at many mall locations, just as with Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), lines can often build during peak hours. Having more than doubled since last fall, CPK's shares appears poised to retest the 2008 highs.

California Pizza Kitchen (CPKI) - 3 years

I've never been to a Texas Roadhouse Restaurant (TXRH), but their menu looks delicious and unlikely to go out of style anytime soon. Again, quality control appears a priority: the chain doesn't freeze meat and hand cuts steaks on the premises. That sort of thing means a lot to a family who is only going to go out for dinner once a month.

Value is also important. The restaurant offers an 18-ounce Texas T-bone steak for under $20. With more than 310 locations nationwide, the chain continues to expand even amid a challenging environment.

Texas Roadhouse Restaurant (TXRH) - 3 years

The most precious metal in 2009 has been platinum, which is up more than 25% since it was highlighted in this space last December. Yet even with that gain, prices are still $1000 lower than the $2,250 per ounce reached in early 2008.

More than even silver or gold, platinum is a precious metal that also happens to have a myriad of industrial uses. To that end, it tends to function as both a store of value and harbinger of growth. If the global economy improves, you'll likely see industrial commodities like platinum and copper continue to rise along with funds like PowerShares DB Base Metals (DBB), iPath DJ AIG Copper ETN (JJC) and iPath Dow Jones-AIG Industrial Metals ETN (JJM).

On the other hand, if government collapses capitalism and the dollar plunges in value, precious metals will likely shine as stores of value.

Either iPath Dow Jones AIG Platinum Total Return Sub Index (PGM) or UBS E-Tracs UBS Long Platinum ETN (PTM) will track platinum prices. In case you've got any room left in that safety deposit box, you might consider squirreling away a few of these domino-sized one-ounce bars as a true long-term hold.

1-ounce Platinum Pamp Bars (Source: California Numismatic Investments)

In which an unemployed Willis explains to Arnold the inherent conflict of the entitlement state.