Now, It's Shareholders at the Gate

GOOD MORNING. Stocks in Asia closed lower today; U.S. futures are pointing to a lower open.

Some of Goldman Sachs (GS) biggest shareholders are unhappy about massive bonuses the firm is paying out, arguing that the earnings should instead be passed along to investors, according to the Wall Street Journal. More than just bad news for Goldman, if the trend takes, it could signify a new and bigger threat to Wall Street bonuses--and could help competing firms struggling to keep talent.

Big bonuses have outraged taxpayers throughout the course of the recession as people argue that no one deserves huge sums when results are suffering and government intervention was required. Such outrage prompted the creation of a “pay czar” and other bonus regulation that is in the works in Washington.

Goldman received $10 billion from the U.S. government in 2008 under the Troubled Asset Relief Program, which it repaid in June. Although it continues to benefit from the help, it was not a Bank of America (BAC) or a Citigroup (C); it was not saved by government support. But that hasn’t stopped the bonus criticism, which is greater than ever as Goldman is on track to make the biggest employee payout in the firm's 140-year history. Employees are set to earn about $717,000 apiece for 2009, according to the Journal.

Easing the bonus pool could help to stave off criticism to be sure. But if it comes not in response to the government but rather as a reaction to shareholders, it could also signal a new era in the bonus debate. Struggling, bailed-out banks have argued that they can’t compete for talent because of government mandated pay controls. Shareholder pressure on some of the better performing banks to keep bonuses under control could make things better for other firms that have had to reduce their payouts.

Still, even if Goldman doesn’t increase the size of its payout from last year, it’s still dwarfing what some other Wall Street firms are able to do. And many banks are already rapidly increasing base pay in order to compensate employees for lower bonuses, reduce the heat in the bonus debate and retain talent.

IN OTHER NEWS:

The Senate is expected to take one more step on the road to a vote on majority leader Harry Reid’s health care reform bill today or tomorrow. The procedural vote could prepare the way for floor debate on the “Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act” after the Thanksgiving holiday. If the vote passes, there will likely be another two to three weeks of debate on the floor to sort out details and proposed amendments.

The “Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act” comes with a hefty price tag of $848 billion in Medicaid spending, subsidies, and tax credits for employers. But the Congressional Budget Office estimates that it would ultimately reduce the federal budget deficit by $130 billion between 2010 and 2019 by offsetting the cost of expanded coverage with a tax on high-premium insurance plans and some cost-saving measures. The House “Affordable Health Care for America Act” would reduce the deficit by $109 billion during the same period.

Even assuming all procedural hurdles are cleared and some version of health care reform ultimately passes, changes to the health care system won’t take effect as quickly as many Americans expect. A recent poll conducted by the Kaiser Family Foundation found that 49% of respondents believe that if reform passes, uninsured people will get financial help within a year, and 51% believe that insurance companies would have to start accepting patients with pre-existing conditions within a year. Under current proposals, changes would generally not take effect until roughly 2013.