5 Housing Markets That Have Further to Fall

Home buyers looking for a bottom in the real estate market may have been encouraged by housing data released earlier this week. Sales of existing homes rose 2.4% in May, according to the National Association of Realtors. The increase was a little less than most analysts had expected, but it represented the second straight month of improvement. Meanwhile, sales of new homes dipped 0.6% in May, continuing a trend of fairly flat months so far this year, according to data released by the Commerce Department.

Don’t get too excited – it’s still too early to say the housing market bottomed out, analysts and economists say. Distressed properties still account for about a third of all sales, and 29% of sales were to first-time home buyers, who are currently benefiting from an $8,000 tax credit.

The sales trends are telling. “You’re not really seeing a lot of move-up buying,” says Richard F. Moody, chief economist and director of research at Forward Capital, LLC. “There are so many vacant homes and so many foreclosures that [there’s] not the normal trade-up pattern that you would have traditionally seen,” Moody says.

Housing prices fell nationwide during the first quarter, according to Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Index. The decline appears to be slowing: in February and March, the annual rate of decline did not set a new record, but home owners should take little solace in those numbers. “Based on the March data… we see no evidence that that a recovery in home prices has begun,” David M. Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s, said in a statement.

All of this less-than-terrible news has left analysts cautiously optimistic that much of the country will start to see housing prices rise sometime in the next year or two. Looking at the nation as a whole, today through the spring of 2011 may be the window for those looking to buy a house at the bottom of the market, says Gary Hager, president and founder of Integrated Wealth Management, a New Jersey-based financial planning company.

A few markets where the housing crisis started earliest have already shown signs of bottoming out. Early-suffering cities like Denver and Boston are now seeing slower declines in home prices, which could indicate they’re already poised for a comeback.

And in some areas, buyers have seized on rapidly falling prices. Existing-home sales rose 9% in the Midwest in May, according to the National Association of Realtors.

“There will be regional differences in the turnaround,” says Maureen Maitland, vice president of index services at Standard & Poor’s. “Most economists I talk to are expecting the beginning of the turnaround to be sometime next year,” she says. However, she added, “the last market may not turn around for two or three years.”

For those hoping to buy at the best possible price, we’ve got a list of five cities where home prices may still have farther to fall. But keep in mind, getting a house at a discount is still not necessarily a house you can afford.

“In light of the housing market boom and bust, consumers should feel very comfortable financially” before deciding to buy, says Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors. “They should not try to overstretch their budget to get their dream home.”

Housing prices fell 4.9% in Detroit in March, according to the latest reading of the Case-Shiller Index. That marked the city’s largest monthly decline since January 1991, when S&P’s backlogged data begin. Houses in Detroit are currently selling at 1995 prices – and with prices still falling so fast, it’s hard to say when the city will rejoin the 21st century.

“Detroit is Detroit because of the auto industry,” says Maitland. The whole Midwest is hurting from car companies’ woes, but Detroit is hurting the most.