10 Smart Books of 2008: Our Staff Picks

Govt to inject Rs 100,000 cr to avoid recession: Congress IANS New Delhi, January 5, 2009 The Congress party on Monday said the government has decided to inject Rs. 100,000 crore in association with the private sector in the Indian economy to stimulate internal demand to insulate it from the effects of global recession. "In the next 100 days, the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government has decided to inject Rs. 1 trillion in the Indian economy to stimulate internal demand to keep it insulated from the world recession. This would be done in association with the private sector," Manish Tewari, Congress spokesperson, told reporters. Tewari said the decision was taken on the advice of UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi. "UPA has taken the decision to provide stimulus to the Indian economy on the advice of Soniaji. This is to increase productivity, control inflation and increase employment opportunities," he said. Tewari also said the UPA government has been successful in not letting t...(Read more of this comment)he world recession impact the Indian economy. "The UPA government has acted as a wall against the world economic recession and hasn't let it impact the Indian economy. We have been able to manage average growth rate of 8.9 per cent during the period of 2004-2009 against 5.8 per cent during the National Democratic Alliance regime (1999-2004)," Tewari said.(Show less of this comment)

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Mahesh asked good question. I do not track Nifty regularly, so I comment on Sensex. My expected bottom (worst) for Sensex is around 6,000-6,500 which may happen in the next 6 months. Sensex earnings will finally fall to 650-700 and command a valuation of 9-10 which gives us a bottom of 6,000-7,000 range. This is my calculation according to the current condition. It is good if situation impoves but things are pointing a btight picture. I am expecting a long recession but not depression for developed economies and drastic slow down for China and India at around 6% and 5% GDP growth rates. In 2007, Companies expected 10-11% GDP growth rates in 2009 and 2010 and builtup massive capacities. In 2009, they are now unable to adjust to 6-5% growth rates (50% fall) which is almost 100% for developed economies. That is why Tata Motors and Tata Steel which paid massive amount for acquisitions are now paying price. Just see what happened to Diachi who bought Ranbaxy. We are living in a econ...(Read more of this comment)omy where World's richest are committing suicide (German who is at 92nd place on Forbes list just committed suicide by placing his head under train). But I don't know when will stock markets react? I don't want to take any chances with hard earned money.(Show less of this comment)

Dear Dr.Krishna - Now Nifty earning is 228 and PE 14. What do you think will be earnings and PE of Nifty by 4th qtr results? It is a tug of war at high between kenesian and austrian economists. Is it a long recession or turning more into depression?

There is nothing wrong in the bullishness about banking stocks. In the Q3 results, Banking stocks will occupy 30% of total earnings in the BSE 100. That is the impact. In one of the estimates, SBI alone accounts for 30% of Sensex earnings in the Q3. They will soon rise excessively and then fall due to fall in deposits and rising NPAs expecially ICICI Bank. Nomura report is meant for just aid but not as a straight forward advice. I don't look at speculative stocks like GMR Infra and JAI Corp. So, I don't give advice on them. I don't know any thing about Indian authors and books on stock markets. I am requesting fellow readers to answer such questions.