Should You Invest in Michael Jackson?

Is it a smart time to invest in Michael Jackson?

Fans across the world are mourning the sudden death on Thursday of Michael Jackson who despite controversy over the years remained for many a music superstar whose talent will never be forgotten. But it’s a reality that with the death of any artist, their works may go up in value – and with any celebrity’s demise, practically any physical object associated with the star has the potential to rise in price too.

In recent years, the market for unique collectibles linked to Jackson has been strong. “His reach is global, collectably,” says Darren Julien, principal of Julien Auctions, which exhibited the Collections of the King of Pop in April. (Jackson had hired the company in 2008 to clear out Neverland and auction its contents but changed his mind at the end of the exhibit.) The collection drew more than 45,000 visitors at stops in New York, Los Angeles and Dublin, Julien says. The collection’s box set catalog sold thousands of copies.

Still, during Jackson’s life, some recent signs suggested relatively little interest from the broader consumer market in his memorabilia. Before Jackson’s death, sellers listed an average 200 to 400 memorabilia items daily on eBay (EBAY), only 50 to 100 of which sold, according to market researcher eSeller Street. Of course, some items offered on eBay may not have been of sufficient quality to attract buyers.

When a major celebrity dies suddenly, prices on the collectors’ market typically increase swiftly and remain elevated for up to a year before leveling off, says Noah Fleisher, a spokesman for Heritage Auction Galleries in Dallas, which sold some of Jackson’s effects during his life. Just how high prices go – and whether that value endures – depends on the market supply of a given item and how kindly the public remembers the celebrity. “History will probably view Jackson kindly when it comes to his music and forget a little what a weirdo he was,” says Fleisher.

Only time will tell. “It is too early to ascertain the effect of yesterday's news on the value of Michael Jackson memorabilia; this will be felt over time and dictated by supply of items to the market,” says a spokesperson for Christie’s, which has auctioned several of Jackson’s items, including a triple-platinum award for the album, “Bad,” which nabbed about $295 at an auction in May 2006.

One big issue for those wanting to purchase a piece of Jackson’s legacy: fakes. “Anyone who has any talent with signing will fake Jackson’s signature,” says Timmy Wade Miller, a specialist in entertainment memorabilia for the International Society of Appraisers and chairman of rare bookseller FlatSigned.com. Even certificates of authenticity aren’t necessarily a guarantee -- those can be faked, too. For especially pricey items, buy through a reputable dealer who can trace the history of ownership back to Jackson and provide additional proof of an item’s legitimacy (photographs and other documentation), advises Miller. Have the item authenticated by a third party, and pay with a credit card so that you can get your money back if an item turns out to be a fake.

The news of Jackson’s death unfolded swiftly. He was rushed to UCLA Medical Center on Thursday, after reportedly suffering cardiac arrest. His death was reported shortly thereafter. The case will be keenly watched in coming days for more details about what led to Jackson’s death.

The singer’s career started at age 5 and took off in 1969 with “I Want You Back” a year after Motown Records signed The Jackson 5. Jackson began recording solo performances soon after, landing a string of hits, including 1982’s “Thriller,” which the Recording Industry Association of America pegs as 28-times platinum. In 2003, his reputation was tarnished by allegations of child molestation of which he was acquitted. In recent weeks, Jackson was preparing to launch a new tour -- which was being eagerly awaited by fans who snapped up tickets.

So, are collectibles experts bullish on Michael Jackson? We reviewed a variety of Jackson memorabilia -- some extremely rare, some less so -- to get their views on how various items may appreciate. They told us the most valuable stuff is likely to be items linked to historically important Jackson performances. “Anything that’s pierced the cultural zeitgeist enough that everyone knows it, like the red jacket in ‘Beat It,’” says David Reeder, vice president of GreenLight, which handles intellectual property rights for celebrity estates. Other items, like some old concert tickets or signed photos, won’t hold much value because there are a lot on the market.

Here's a look at some Jackson memorabilia and how its value might change: