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After the Pause
The Fed has never resumed rate hikes after pausing. Prepare your portfolio accordingly.
 
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Posted 9:46 PM EST August 30, 2006
Posted by: jamesmcglynn
Why did James change his verbiage in the archive on 'never'?

gordo
Posted 4:14 PM EST August 09, 2006
Posted by: rborman
' The Fed has never paused in a campaign to raise rates'. Then goes on to list 3 recent times when the Fed paused but this was in periods of declining rates 1999, 1994, and 1988. I could be wrong but Bloomberg shows that in 1999 the Fed hiked in 6/99, 8/99, paused in 10/99 and hiked again in 11/99. In 2/94, 3/94, 4/94 and 5/94 the Fed hiked, did nothing in 7/94 and hiked again in 8/94. Lastly, 1988 also was a tightening campaign with a pause. Please correct me if I am wrong.
Posted 1:43 PM EST August 09, 2006
Posted by: JSwadesh
A dollar drop would force the Fed's hand. That's why history can fool one: it never happens quite the same way twice.
Posted 9:43 PM EST August 08, 2006
Posted by: marketinsider
James Stewart says, 'Unless the laws of economics have been repealed, a slowing economy will in turn ease inflationary pressures.' Stagflation is real, just because the economy slows does not mean inflation will go down. Unless you are a journalist who is trying to make an argument based on bull instead of facts, you had better believe in stagflation.
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