Monday November 23, 2009 3:26 PM ET
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What If We Were in a Great Depression?
Jim Stewart on which investments ultimately triumph after dark times.
 
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Posted by: bussybod@
You are very selectively using the numbers to advocate your position. If you take the period 1/1/28 to 12/31/37 your assets would be underwater. A 55 year old in 1928 who followed your strategy would experience all of the volatility of the period and none of the benefits you are espousing. Is your philosophy based on the fact that the 55 yr old would very likely have been dead anyway? Or is your purpose to keep all of us sheep in the game so that the market is propped up enough so that experts like yourself can pick up the pieces later.




Posted by: DKP50
Oh Please! Let's leave the ' Great Depression' were it belongs shall we? they did not have all the Progams in place we have now, let alone the experience we have now..

And The only way you could have Invested in the Sstock market back then was how? Thru a broker and you best have had some Money and 90% were just barely getting by 'Down on the Farm'....

We ahve som 40 Million invested in the marketes in some form or another and give them a PC and Internet? And that my friend, IS the Problem..

All those Amatures can make the market Change in a heartbeat...

Proportionally? An Investor should have a Minimum of $10,000 before being allowed In adn there lies the problem.. too many Nickel and Dime people , subjecting the market to Panic and Lack of Knowledge and Forget about Buy and Holding anymore... that went out the Window when Bill Gates and the Internet got so cheap, everyone could have a PC and the Internet..

The Brokers and the stock market...(Read more of this comment)
Posted by: yeshe
Sanguine statements like 'over the long run, stocks are your best investment' miss a crucial point: over the long run, we are all DEAD, too!

If you were unfortunate to be close to retirement in 1929, with all of your assets in the market, you would not haved lived to recover your investments -- it took about 30 years for the Dow to reach its pre-crash levels.

Then, as now, the decline was fed by an orgy of 'de-leveraging' as investors found themselves forced to sell whatever they could, to raise the cash needed to cover margin calls, etc.

If you were wise enough to have kept a balanced portfolio, with sufficient cash and equivalents, and stayed clear of debt-fueled speculative investing, you would indeed have been in a position to clean up.

But few people were that fortunate...
Posted by: joshuatree28
Hard to call, but to the point. Likely, as with most everything, there will be a stunning 'hindsight' analysis in 5 or 10 years. Regardless, if the world economic systems do collapse.... what a time to be an entrepreneur ( or a 'deep value investor')!
Posted by: riche2
I understand specifics of conditions were different during the Great Depression than current but isn't the commonality that both might be the crisis that gets out of control despite the efforts of the best available financial minds.

The common theme is the inappropriate credit excesses that fueled a false sense of profit. Then deflation, inexplicable deflation. They were used to combating inflation. Deflation stuns. We know the Hoover administration did things wrong, but we don't truly know that different choices would have worked in 1929 - 1931.

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