You are very selectively using the numbers to advocate your position. If you take the period 1/1/28 to 12/31/37 your assets would be underwater. A 55 year old in 1928 who followed your strategy would experience all of the volatility of the period and none of the benefits you are espousing. Is your philosophy based on the fact that the 55 yr old would very likely have been dead anyway? Or is your purpose to keep all of us sheep in the game so that the market is propped up enough so that experts like yourself can pick up the pieces later.
Posted 6:05 PM EST October 31, 2008
Posted by: DKP50
Oh Please! Let's leave the ' Great Depression' were it belongs shall we? they did not have all the Progams in place we have now, let alone the experience we have now..
And The only way you could have Invested in the Sstock market back then was how? Thru a broker and you best have had some Money and 90% were just barely getting by 'Down on the Farm'....
We ahve som 40 Million invested in the marketes in some form or another and give them a PC and Internet? And that my friend, IS the Problem..
All those Amatures can make the market Change in a heartbeat...
Proportionally? An Investor should have a Minimum of $10,000 before being allowed In adn there lies the problem.. too many Nickel and Dime people , subjecting the market to Panic and Lack of Knowledge and Forget about Buy and Holding anymore... that went out the Window when Bill Gates and the Internet got so cheap, everyone could have a PC and the Internet..
The Brokers and the stock market...(Read more of this comment) sellers found a way to avoid having to deal with Fellow Pro's by Opening up the market to the Amatures and found a way to Sucker them as well..
The only way to Beat a Pro is to BE a Pro..and everyone else should stay OUT of the markets..
Either Hire a Firm or Own only Balanced Funds.. They proved themselves in the Last Bear of 00-2' and are doing so again this time around..
And please? Stay out of the Market otherwise, ok?
You hire a Plumber, Electrictian and a Mechanic don't you? So why are you trying to handle your own money youreself for?
Damn Fool and his Money are soon parted...and rightfully so and as it should be...
Jack Boggle taold this to everyone yrs aggo and it has been duplicated by many others eversince.. Being a Penny Wise and a Dollar Foolish is not the way to go with your Savings... you Damn Fool
Just spread your $ btwn Bal. Funds like VWINX, FPACX,OAKBX,PRPFX,WMRIX, WMMRX and add a Trasury fund like VFITX when you retire and keep 3 yrs COH/CD's to pay your retirement bills and you'll do fine...
Don't be a Fool anymore... ' It Takes a Pro to Beat A Pro'..Don't be a sucker and try to beat the house yourself...
(Show less of this comment)
Posted 2:20 PM EST October 30, 2008
Posted by: yeshe
Sanguine statements like 'over the long run, stocks are your best investment' miss a crucial point: over the long run, we are all DEAD, too!
If you were unfortunate to be close to retirement in 1929, with all of your assets in the market, you would not haved lived to recover your investments -- it took about 30 years for the Dow to reach its pre-crash levels.
Then, as now, the decline was fed by an orgy of 'de-leveraging' as investors found themselves forced to sell whatever they could, to raise the cash needed to cover margin calls, etc.
If you were wise enough to have kept a balanced portfolio, with sufficient cash and equivalents, and stayed clear of debt-fueled speculative investing, you would indeed have been in a position to clean up.
But few people were that fortunate...
Posted 5:34 PM EST October 29, 2008
Posted by: joshuatree28
Hard to call, but to the point. Likely, as with most everything, there will be a stunning 'hindsight' analysis in 5 or 10 years. Regardless, if the world economic systems do collapse.... what a time to be an entrepreneur ( or a 'deep value investor')!
Posted 11:49 PM EST October 28, 2008
Posted by: riche2
I understand specifics of conditions were different during the Great Depression than current but isn't the commonality that both might be the crisis that gets out of control despite the efforts of the best available financial minds.
The common theme is the inappropriate credit excesses that fueled a false sense of profit. Then deflation, inexplicable deflation. They were used to combating inflation. Deflation stuns. We know the Hoover administration did things wrong, but we don't truly know that different choices would have worked in 1929 - 1931.