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Even Worse Than the Great Depression
Donald Luskin: If stocks take the same path, we're halfway through. Maybe.
I was comparing a forward leading economic indicator, the Dow Jones Average, over two similar periods in time and pointing out the difference is direction under two similar Democratic Presidents. Obviously not enough time has passed to allow trailing economic indictors cannot be affected by a stimulus bill that has only recently passed. The stock market however is a daily referendum on the concerns by investors about the future.
As far as the "bs statistics" from the past , how else would you evaluate this new president. Obama and his supporters are always looking back to the New Deal and drawing favorable comparisons. His head of the Council of Economic Advisors did so two ago in a public speech. I happened to compare one measure of performance in which Obama comes up short against FDR and you lable that "ridiculous" and "BS". That is not an answer , that is surrender.
History is important to evaluate present event, even though...(Read more of this comment)
As far as the comments about Obama...
"We can't blame President Obama for the mess he inherited. But we can definitely blame him for making it worse. Stocks are off 28.4% since his election, 15.2% since his inauguration, and 17.2% since his so-called 'stimulus' bill was enacted. To say the very least, whate...(Read more of this comment)
Are you saying that it would be a good thing if things got a lot worse than they are now because that would motivate people to "change"? Do you actually think that the decline in the stock market is a good thing? That is just wrong and contrary to what Obama has promised about things getting better.
You also state that when FDR came in the market had nowhere else to go but up. Not true . the Dow had been lower. there was every reason for the Dow to stay in the same range it had been in for about a year . Instead the Dow went higher right after the inauguration and kept going up the rest of the year.
The argument that the market has to go up because it can't go any lower is has been used time and time again to justify buying stocks . It was even used by Obama to justify if his half hearted Buy Stock recommendation last week before the market tanked again. this argument is only valid if the market is at Zero. However maybe that is the ...(Read more of this comment)
Your statistics are bit disingenous at best. The US had already been in the downturn for 4 years before FDR took office compared with 1.2 years for Obama. Also take into account that the Dow was at 60 points on inauguration day, down 85% from its high levels in 1929. Little argument needs to be made that there was pretty much no other place for the market to go but up.
And lastly let's take into account what people's lives were like in 1933. 25% national unemployment rate, An annual growth rate of minus 9.3% from 1930 to 1933. In 1933, the GDP per capita was $4,500 compared to its current level of $45,000 in year 2000 dollars.
Its only when enough people have to really dig in hard and make that "change" which is what obama is really lacking. Right now we're mostly just a bunch of old fat cats sitting on the porch wondering what all the fuss is.
Its like the muffler man says, "you can pay me now or you can pay me later". My guess is...(Read more of this comment)
Brother Paul. I don't have a television. What is BET? Please explain with detail.
I agree. For historical comparison it may be helpful to look back to the early days of the NEW DEAl, under FDR to see how the market performed when a new president came in following a failed Republican. During the first 8 weeks of the New Deal , the DJIA ROSE 48%. It kept on rising the rest of 1933 and finished 1933 about 100% higher than when FDr took office.
Based on this comparison with FDR, whatever Obama is doing , not only is it not working, its not even going in the same direction. So far the Commander in Chief has not turned our Ship of State around.
Are we still going in the same direction as under Bush? If so , is it tim...(Read more of this comment)
In 2009, stock prices drop every time it seems likely that the Democrats will pass another bill adding trillions of government spending that will have to be taxed away from working Americans.
What the chicken bones and goat entrails have to augur for the markets and how Obama is worse than Stalin...
result of greed of millions.
Please use some kind of realistic technical or fundamental analysis that has a basis in something other than political bashing.
Well yeah, I'm a skeptic by nature. But I think nationalization will be better than a total lack of transparency (I trust my current government more than I trust Wall Street). Everybody with common sense knows these banks are totally insolvent. Let's not carry on this charade anymore and at least wipe out the shareholders/bondholders otherwise the taxpayer is left holding the bag (of s#$%).
I try not to respond to other commenters but I'm a little randy tonight. The disaster that is approaching (think Titanic) was not of Obama's creation. All he can do is belatedly react. I persionally favor the temporary stimulus (we are in a liquidity trap after all) but I think the failure to temporarily nationalize the large insolvent banks is a major disaster in the making.
P.S. I've read "The road to Serfdom" many times. I voted Libertarian consistently from 1982 (first year I qualified) through 2000. Then I gew up and came to my senses and have voted straight Democratic ever since (the Patriot Act was the last straw).
Seriously? You're seriously going with the Hitler comparison? Sorry, Mr. Luskin. Godwin's Law - argument lost.
I have consistently forecast during this same period that the Dow Jones would bottom out below 4000 sometime in 2010. I still hold by that forecast (and it mattered not one whit who was elected in 2008). I am not an active trader and try to hold things from trough to peak. I liquidated my stocks in mid-2007 and my gold two weeks ago. Cash is now king. Anyone who still has money in the market that they cannot afford to lose (retirement accounts?) is a fool.
As for the idea that the President's job is to jawbone up the stock market, get a clue. The stock market IS NOT the economy, anymore than "what is good for GM is good for America." The Dow Jones corrected for inflation ...(Read more of this comment)
Jeff Smith, Founder
www.generationBIG.com
So what you are saying is that Racism > Fact? I guess the market is not really down because the old white man lost? So far, Obama has only saddled the next three generations of Americans with more debt than they can ever repay. So far, his policies have only turned most 401k retirements into 201k. =) Please throw your racism implications out and try to argue the facts. Obama is only a great President if he does great things. I am still waiting...
Ad hominem attacks get us nowhere. We seem to be heading into a pit and no one seems to know what to do to prevent it. I wonder if we learned what we thought we did about how to avoid another Great Depression. I do think this is a very poor time to try to enact major health care reform, and change the tax codes. We need stability, not more uncertainty
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I think they were hoping for the placebo effect too. It would certainly be making the transition to socialism smoother for them. The pants down effect has got be irritating them... makes them have to explain [lie] more.
"An Islamic World in Crisis, Anti-Americanism and the Fight Against Israel by Samir Khalil Samir" What a gem this is. I hope it doesn't get lost in the sheer volume of stuff. The writer is that unicorn, a moderate Arab with introspective abilities about Islam while not condemning the West, encouraging both Muslims and westerners toward a middle ground. He includes some things the West might consider, like removing needlessly irritant American army bases from around the world (simultaneously relieving US military overextension) so a win win if it can be done signaling strength of purpose and focus rather than weakness. Another doable item may well be a clear American veto on Israeli expansion which would inconvenience only a minority extremist faction in Israel. His encouragement for Muslims/Arabs to follow their grandparents ands meld the best of the West with Islamic principles, not sharia (and the belief that there is a best)is charming to say the least. While giving unvarn...(Read more of this comment)
Those who believe that Adolf Hitler was sent by God and that Mein Kampf was divinely inspired will find the proposed EU laws very useful. At last they will be able to stop the continual attacks on Adolf Hitler and all his beliefs.
Gregory, you're on the wrong thread.
Jez fjordman, you wrote way too much. Suffice it to say that you just can't get to the moon on a pop-bottle rocket.....
Contra, that janitorial job has some very nice aspects to it. Regular increases in salary, union shop where it is very hard to be fired, and a big fat pension. School district jobs are very sought after.
Ahithophel, don’t forget John McCain. In ascending order of importance (and credit) in assessing the Iraq turnaround are Odierno, Petraeus, McCain, and Bush. The generals opinions were mostly professional - there is definitely such a thing as United States Army politics - and of course they are to be unstintingly commended for their advocacy of and detailed planning for the Surge. McCain, the ex-Navy Commander, also brought shrewd professional judgment to the situation, but the politics were secondary for him, in my opinion, which is to his credit. The burden on Bush was professional, as the C-in-C, but also staggeringly political. The only opinion that mattered, finally, of the four men cited was George Bush’s. Put John Kerry or, one shudders, Barack Obama in charge, and it requires no great insight to imagine the outcome: unmitigated disaster. And the thing is, to believe that a similar, critical decision will NOT confront BO in the not so long term regarding the A...(Read more of this comment)
[…] Jennifer Rubin: “If Joe Biden is ‘Mr. Fix It‘ in this administration we are in big trouble.” I’ll second that–here are ten reasons why: Filed under: Bobos In Paradise, Muggeridge’s Law […]
Obama says we are not winning in Afghanistan, and turning that war around “is going to be much more of a challenge” than was turning around Iraq. This is so self-serving it’s really rather depressing. I know opinions differ on the state of the war in Afghanistan, but Obama is managing the narrative. He can only be credited with a turnaround if we are not winning; and he can only get greater glory than Bush did for the Petraeus strategy if the challenge he faces is greater. Afghanistan is complex, but turning around Iraq certainly seemed to be quite a challenge when nobody but George Bush and Generals Petraeus and Odierno believed it was possible.
#1: “Everyone that needs a job knows where to apply.” Like here: “Ohio school gets 700 applicants — for one janitorial job! “
“Patrick Ruffini gets it largely right on the intra-conservative wars.” I don’t think much of this pair of sentences by Ruffini: “It’s one thing to reject spokespeople with neither egghead credentials nor talent, like Joe the Plumber, or those who are positively cringe-worthy, like Coulter. Rush belongs in neither of these categories. “ Joe the Plumber would be less of an asset to the opposition if he had “egghead credentials”. As for the scintillating Ann Coulter, she is too original to be anyone else’s spokesperson, but this fact calls for neither “cringing” nor “rejection”…
I am inclined to give Geithner some slack. Not because I believe he will pull it together. I am not sure that it can be pulled together. However, it will give reps somewhat longer to figure out what in the world they believe about government and the financial sector. Sure, reps believe in principle in limited government and market solutions. But when push came to shove Paulson was able to steam roll them. It wasn’t even close. And who remembers reps making an issue of Bush’s re-appointment of Greenpsan, followed up with his appointment of Helicopter Ben. If conservatives and neo-conservatives had put up a fight on these appointments, they might have lost the elections in 2006 and 2008 but they would be much further ahead now. (Oh wait, reps did lose in 2006 and 2008). It’s not like conservatives and neo-conservatives couldn’t make Bush pay attention (remember the Harriet Miers nomination). The problem is that conservatives and neo-conservatives really...(Read more of this comment)
Joe NS, On May 18, 2004, Greenspan was appointed by George W. Bush to a fifth term as chairman of the Fed. Greenspan was most negligent during his last years in office.
The Republicans looked to the future and discovered radio!
tex- the way I see it both sides are sort of “stuffing ” this issue. the liberals are ramming through all this stuff about green home heaters and health acre alternatives while the republicans bloviate about the beautiful past and getting back to it and socialism when really what both sides need to do is zer oin on the problem that tim geitner hasn’t initiated a plabn for the troubled assetts and the banks that contain them. it’s all people riding their hobby horses instead of grabbing and shaking tim geitner and larry summers
“Funny also that all the Foreign Policy alternatives they put forth haven't seen the light of day either as for all intents and purposes this is really the third term of George W. Bush” disagree. you have to look at what’s NOT there in that regard. forget this chas freeman stuff for a minute. the difference is the tone
12 Tex: Yeah, I’m real worried too…but that powerful nexus missed 47% of the voters. And against, lets be fair, a 70 something guy that was less than compelling. We already have reports that there are 14 senators that want to form a centrist group. I hope we don’t have to go through a period where the cruelity of Leftism leaves a mark…but there is a little hope that the adults are showing up.
8. I read the Frum article. To me he’s taking aim at the wrong target. The only reason Frum is talking about Rush is because there are no R leaders (in part because of Frum’s previous boss). And, maybe, that’s his strategy…to shame some of the brighter Rs into actually leading. If that’s his goal, then I’m on his side. We were the party of Phil Gramm, d!*k Armey, and Newt even after Reagan. Do we have political leaders like that? No. Liberalism/Leftism is, in my view, a very fragile position intellectually. It is really only about power/control and getting $$ or services from someone else. The results of Liberalism/Leftism are pretty indefensible given its track record both here and the world. Yes, there may be a bit of hormesis in some instances, but generally the poison will kill you.
Before any conservatives get elated that Geithner is a tool, Obama is a know-nothing fraud, and the Dems are socialistic moonbats spending other people’s money and that the economic disaster will shift things shortly back to the Republicans, I say……not so fast. Look, I am a conservative, but also a harsh realist. Obama has settled on a grand coalition, a coalition of educated, young, very rich, and poor to lower middle class people along with the usual gays/blacks/unionizers and seized power. This coalition isn’t going to leave him, ever. This economy could go even worse than the Great Depression, and they won’t leave him. America has changed. The ruling nexus doesn’t involve people who favor limited government, strong defense, and strict immigration, and certainly not people of a religious persuasion. Face it. We are at the exact polar opposite of 1981. A new President, a tough economy, and a post-election teflon for the new POTUS. The real f...(Read more of this comment)
Alan Greenspan is a “Bush appointee”? By the way, have I mentioned that Obama is a lazy cuss?
@9 Interesting lester : “the democrats are having to learn in a matter of weeks that alot of what they believe in and have been agitating for and against doesn't work. ” Strangely enough the American people know that it doesn’t work - -which is why they couldn’t run as naked liberals (thats an ugly image) but as stealth ones. Funny also that all the Foreign Policy alternatives they put forth haven’t seen the light of day either as for all intents and purposes this is really the third term of George W. Bush.
I think democrats are starting to realize the problems at treasury. I don’t want to link to any of them but I’ve reada number of threads at lefty sites with sober assesments by stock market minded liberals explaining that it’s become a problem. they get shouted down but they get their point across. the democrats are having to learn in a matter of weeks that alot of what they believe in and have been agitating for and against doesn’t work. I hope they can figure out a sensible way forward because the republicans are not a substantial opposition right now. they’ve all been resting on their laurels for decades and are totally unprepared for this or any crisis.
7 Excellent points. On a different note, if you all haven’t read this David Frum ( I know) piece, its worth the time. http://www.newsweek.com/id/188279/page/1
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Please listen how our current 'scarcity' greed driven (capitalism-gone-corrupt) monetary/economic policy/system has and will continue to fail ... (Read m...(Read more of this comment)