Sunday November 22, 2009 4:33 AM ET
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Acclaimed Economist Says Recession Is Over
Donald Luskin: Peak unemployment claims show the recession may be over.
 
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piranhaobama.com SmartMoney Insiders
8 Comments
I read the esteemed economists assessment that we may be out of the recession/ this is the most misleading and deceptive prediction I have ever seen, its wrong on so many levels, that I could argue the point for weeks with him. Not the least of which, we are in a totally different era geopolitically and economically/ we crossed a line and there is no turning back in terms of what the effects of the recent Government spending etc.. will do to the economy "moving forward"
I have been in business since 1977 and a student of the economy, never seen anything Like this before.

So maybe the previous indicators prove his point, the reality of the situation is still unknown.
Posted by: pneogy
I have no idea how acclaimed an economist Gordon is. But the mere fact that his work is being touted by Luskin makes me very suspicious.
Posted by: BJohnson123
Why is the '09 part of the unemployment curve in the article so steep and smooth? The uninterrupted curve makes it look like Obama never approved the constitutionally unauthorized socialism that we paid hundreds of billions of dollars for. In fact, Obama had fantasized in his Caterpillar plant speech earlier this year that the results of the stimulus package would be immediate.
Posted by: gdl50
As shown in this article starting w/ paragraph entitled 'Is Unemployment a Lagging or a Leading Indicator?' found at http://www.safehaven.com/article-13344.htm, things will continue to stay bad and not recover any time soon. This is not an ordinary recession with the unprecedented debt and de-leveraging we are undergoing. We have a long way to go...if we ever recover with the current counter productive policies and corruption in place. Any one suggesting these policies are good or done by people who have a clue what they are doing will be in for a rude awakening.
Posted by: mikecraney
Agree with the article, but remember that the definition of "recession" that economists use is "two consecutive quarters of negative GDP."

IOW, if quarterly GDP for the next 10 years shows .1% growth annualized, the econs will say we are "out of recession."

It may not feel "out of recession" to anyone but them.
dadismurf SmartMoney Insiders
1 Comments
Hooray, sorry for the facetiousness. I can't picture it. Welfare back to pre 1995 status, government involved in screwing bondholders, trillion USD deficits, who outside the USA will want to compete with this Federal backed union? No sign of any corporate tax cuts or drilling for more oil on our own shores.
China buying commodities not because of growth but to hedge against weak USD, that is an ugly little secret that will keep a fly in the American equity ointment while trying to save the banks, and screw Main Street.
Posted by: jamthrees
If this single variable alone is enough to influence the end of a recession, and the auto industry alone is enough to delay that variables semiperminent downturn, does that mean a business (or a collection of a few business) can be "too big to fail"?
Posted by: amtsop
Like Donlivi, I got in this market about 6 weeks ago (went to 80% cash in the fall of 2007). However, have moved back into 50% cash since we'll see a pullback for the next 2 weeks. However, ultimately, I have little confidence in the current team since they're in the process of creating a whole new set of problems for this country. However, if one understands those issues one can still benefit in their investing decisions.
Posted by: pravchaw
Agree. Another index to keep an eye out is Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index. It is maintained on a real time basis.
http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/real-time-center/business-conditions-index/
Donlivi SmartMoney Insiders
36 Comments
It's always hard to see a bottom, or a top, but I have been "all in" to the market for about two months now, and will ride it out from here. I have confidence in the team that is behind what is happening now, not that anyone is always right. I had no confidence in the past team...
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Comments From Around the Web
Posted by: m4ever on Real Heavy Politics

Thank you BTP.

Posted by: BostonTentacleParty on Real Heavy Politics

"I start today's essay off with that little antidote about the natural plant many in the country use daily as medication" You mean "anecdote." I don't want an antidote for weed.

Posted by: Keith Shepard on FriendFeed

When will this horrible recession be over? According to one surprising source, it's over right now.

Posted by: Hangly on reddit.com

Not always!

Posted by: kissmydick on reddit.com

As I said, the FBI compiled a list of 64,000 names involved in financial fraud. The FBI concluded that the majority of names are from companies, but the list includes also people who lied to get a loan, but worse than that, banks did not investigate these people before giving them loans, because they would profit by simply creating a new loan and reselling it. After reselling, they do not care if people pay or not. And of course, one has to investigate why AAA rating was giving to these mortgages. You will probably find more fraud then. Think about it. 64,000 names involved in fraud and nobody will ever go to jail? Just Madoff to serve as an example? Madoff compared to these guys is a boy from the Vienna Choir.

Posted by: brintoul on reddit.com

I like how the guy mentions the "liar's loans". Let's examine that. Is the suggestion being made that the *people* who applied for these liar's loans should simply be absolved?! I do not argue with your points 1 and 2 and most of 3.

Posted by: kissmydick on reddit.com

I am sure you do not know what generated this crisis. This is a crisis created by greed and fraud on Wall Street and on government, not by regular "people". I suggest you [watch this video](http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/04032009/watch.html), it will explain it all OBAMA is not responsable for the crisis he received. Obama is to blame for the crisis he is building with more spending. Do you want to solve the crisis? Stop what generates spending... in other words... 1) trial and put in jail all 64,000 names listed by financial fraud by the FBI in 2008. This will include most part of Wall Street bank owners, CEO's and investment companies. 2) freeze all assets from these guys. Close their companies, including banks. Use the assets to pay who them defrauded. 3) stop spending in wars. 4) close all thousands of US bases overseas. 5) stop spending to deceive, kill, disrupt foreigner governments. If you success to do these 5 items you do not need to bail out the rich.

Posted by: brintoul on reddit.com

Ah, the old "speculators paying cash" ruse. Just wait for the tidal wave of foreclosures to come on the market and expose those "speculators paying cash" as nothing more than a media creation.

Posted by: brintoul on reddit.com

Get with the program Hangly. Repeat after me: "It's all that dang socialist Obama's fault".

Posted by: brintoul on reddit.com

heh heh heh heh heh heh heh heh heh heh you said "if"... Heh heh heh heh heh heh...

Posted by: brintoul on reddit.com

Ah, the old "blame Obama" trick. I agree with you that this ain't over, but you're barking up the wrong tree. I'm not into the "blame game" necessarily; the point is that we are up s!*t creek without a paddle and there's going to be some pain involved. How would *you* solve this crisis? Personally, I'd like to see everybody who should be kicked out of their house actually *kicked out*, but nobody's gonna let that happen... **PEOPLE** caused this problem, not Obama and not freakin' BUSH.

Posted by: jamesqua on reddit.com

Inventions don't create wealth?

Posted by: Hangly on reddit.com

None of that creates wealth.

Posted by: Sex_Cactus on reddit.com

;D

Posted by: SleepingSheeple on reddit.com

Sorry, this is Reddit. Bad News only, please, preferably unsubstantiated.

Posted by: jamesqua on reddit.com

There wasn't real growth in 1995-2001? That time period was one giant technology explosion. We now have the internet, inexpensive computers, and faster network connections as a result.

Posted by: foonly on reddit.com

You had me at Sex Cactus...

Posted by: foonly on reddit.com

Their only mistake was to use their legal names on reddit...

Posted by: chillmandan on reddit.com

He might be right, we never know if we're in a recession until two quarters into the thing, when all the data from previous quarters can be analyzed. It's very possible that we're out of it now.

Posted by: morrisonsghost on reddit.com

I just threw up.

Posted by: dirtyd0ggy on reddit.com

outsourcing.

Posted by: elshizzo on reddit.com

no, the beginning of the end doesn't happen until the end of the middle. If it is the end of the beginning than we are clearly entering the beginning of the middle, then once we've seen the middle of the middle and the end of the middle, only then will we be entering the beginning of the end.

Posted by: Hixie on reddit.com

Precisely what I came here to say.

Posted by: chuckieballs on reddit.com

JUMP JUMP JUMP

Posted by: Hangly on reddit.com

SHORT SHORT SHORT

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