Story Comments

@tradeking13: She’s not a hermit. She’s a computer generated: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hXsd5aw8oas see

Megan Fox is a hermit? That is so hot.

Andy T: Saw the last dozen or so games while getting a burger at Culver’s in the Woodlands. Agree with your assessment. Guess no one charges the net any more. Out of curiousity, I looked up leftie tennis stars and it seems that day is past: Laver, Connors, McEnroe, Navratilova and Renee Richards.

“Haven't kept up with tennis for awhile. Since it has become more about high velocity serves, that may not longer be important.” No doubt. Anyone who saw wimbledon saw a display of high velocity serves and what becomes of a match when such a thing occurs. It was a terrific match because it was a display of human endurance, strength, intensity, etc….but it was no McEnroe/Borg circa 1980….that was a slugfest today. I came away disappointed because today, I thought Rodd!*k was the better tennis player, but Federer somehow outlasted him. If they played again in two weeks, I would bet on Rodd!*k.

@Mike in Nola: Ross Perot’s $1 gas tax proposal wouldn’t have helped pay down the deficit at all. We both know what would have happened. Congressman #1: Look at all of this extra money pouring in. Let’s start some more social programs. Congressman #2: Perot will probably veto the bill. Congressman #1: Are you kidding me? Not only do we have a two thirds majority, we have a 100 percent majority - that is, 100 percent of us like to vote entitlements to our constituents so we can stay in office destroying this country forever (and making more than 3 times the median income doing it).

PPT had better get warmed up. Looking ugly in Asia and U.S. futures looking shaky. Since I sold my SRS and FAZ on Friday, I’m really rooting for an up day tomorrow and/or Tuesday so that I can get in again, which means I probably won’t get it!

thetanman: Maybe the Illuminati are all left handed. I never could bat left. Think I learned just by watching and the only ones around me were righties.

Mike, Ouch! Leftys have the advantage in Baseball too. In the early years there were almost no lefties (the most famous Ty Cobb and Joe Jackson) and then came Gehrig and Ruth. Young players saw what an advantage batting left handed was. Left handed pitchers were different too. For some reason most junk pitchers were left handed, and the right handed pitchers were much more conventional. It may have been that in a mostly right league, left handed pitchers were much more into velocity deception. A strong stereotype developed of the not quite all there southpaw.

I’m not 100% on this….but I think Hank Paulson is a lefty also…. Seriously?? Clinton, Bush, McCain, Obama….all lefties?? I smell a constitutional amendment…

the tanman; Looks like I’ll stop bragging. Looks like Obama and McCain are lefties. http://www.anythingleft-handed.co.uk/presidents.html

thetanman: Lefties used to have a big advantage in tennis, e.g. Rod Laver, supposedly because the other players didn’t get to play lefties all the time. Haven’t kept up with tennis for awhile. Since it has become more about high velocity serves, that may not longer be important. My observation in the law practice was that there were an unusual number of lefties who were sole practitioners. Must be something in the personality.

not sure that sub-prime was a response to securitization (its been around a long time, and it has worked well for the most part). in this case it appears that a lot of mortgage issuers used it as method to make money on loan fees, and to duck responsibility for their contracts (they basically wrote contracts they knew would fail, and sold them ASAP to avoid the loss that was inevitable). if any thing securitization allowed this fraud to be more wide spread and easier to accomplish. but the rating agencies were major contributors as they rated these bogus securities as AAA when they were any thing but. if they hadn’t, the banks would have been unlikely to have ever bought them. and the investment banks were major players in this. they pushed these loans again with help of the rating agencies.

I just realized two of the three were Bush Sr. and Clinton. Special takes on a whole new meaning.

Mike, Three people selected at random have a 0.3% of all being leftys. So something else must be at work. Must be that leftys are indeed special people.

Ok, I’m confused. I’m half way through your book and have just finished the chapter on mortgage securitization and the quest for higher yields. On the one hand, you say that historically interest rates played a small roll in the decision to buy a home. Steady, secure employment and good wages were the predominant criteria. However, after describing the need for fund managers to pursue higher yields due to the Fed lowering rates, you say explicitly that mortgage rates are vastly important to the decision to buy a home. I understand that sub-prime was a direct response to securitization and the global demand for AAA rated junk yields. But I’m inclined to agree with your first statement that interest rates alone does not explain the public’s clamor for mortgages. As a back office worker for 10 years at a real estate title company in Florida, it was instead the lure of a McMansion for what on the surface seemed to be the the mortgage equivalent of a Big Mac...(Read more of this comment) with cheese. (Needless to say, my company is no longer in business). Did I read your book incorrectly or were you stating that the criteria had changed?(Show less of this comment)

“While the Cat is Away, the Mice will be at Play..” BR, just a note, MSFT’s IE scrIpt editor telles an IE-user, when ’scrIpt editing’ is /not/ disabled, that your site is full of scrIpt defects/coding errors.. I’m sure you’re paying full fare to your ‘web-developers’, they might care to pay attention to the work that they’re producing.. Past that, hope you, and yours, had a good time on the g’island..good time of year to take a break, the second-half is guaranteed to curl, even more, hairs..

new plans? http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31711461/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/

Ah yes, if we’d have taken some of the remedies of Ross Perot we’d certainly be better off now. At least some of the attitude. But alas, this nation mocked and derided him, because we all knew better and we could have it all with no sacrifices to be made. Besides he was/is a funny looking little man with a funny voice, and we all know that superficial judgments about people based on attractiveness and charm are the much better way to assess people; or is that con men? Hmmm.

What is the trend here? 1 Greater personal savings…rapidly I think this is bullish for gold/silver/safes/home security/firearms/trained dogs/alarm companies. 2Unemployment increasing..not bottoming More general suffering/homelessness = crime up Bullish for Cheap Stuff…MCD is first to mind 3Any entitiy that has to balance ingo with outgo is hurting…families, communities, counties, states Who’s going to be the first to BK?? Cali?? MI?? I think there have already been some bond defaults local levels- Bearish for State Capitol Towns ie. Sacramento, Albany, etc… 4As noted on other web sites and blogs more so that TBP…restuarants, hotels, airlines, sports events, etc. all are hurting, and no 'bottom' seems in place. Bullish for storage space, auction companies, Hopefully kills this nation’s idiotic obsession with massmedia driven sports…one can only hope. 5Graduates have poor job prospects…even butterbar lawyers are being paid not to start… Butterbars…...(Read more of this comment);heh….Probably one of the best fields a young college grad could get into right now is get a commission. I’m trying talk my daughter and all her cousins into considering academy/military options…USN/CoastGuard/USMaritime Academy… 6Lowest numbers of hours worked since records have been kept…33.0 and decreasing. Bearish for OIL 7Appeals on property valuations for tax purposes have jumped 10 fold..and increasing. Is there a RE/BK lawyer in the house?? 8Private sector job creation has lagged hugely the creation and costs of public sector jobs…and there is increasing inability to fund this segment of our workforce. Until this starts to improve….nothing will get any better…more gov is not the answer 9National government and the cost of national government is increasing…rapidly WTF is Ross Perot with those charts??!! Batsh!t crazy yes….but I’d take Ross in a heartbeat right now…..or how about a Goldwater?? WTF is up with political ideological bulls!*t?? Why are the smart guys always shoved to the back of the room?? 10There is a significant movement toward more simple and less costly living… Oh yeah….my household is on a three year plan to be completely free of any debt or contractual obligations. We’ve always been savers…but now it’s serious. Still not sure what we’re going to do then….but at least we’ll have options. I’m hoping the economy can maybe hold together for at least three more years….kicking the can as it were…but it doesn’t look good to me honestly. I hope you and yours have a nice Independence Day weekend.(Show less of this comment)

Just on for a minute. That’s quite a pile of links.Will take awhile. Willid3: The story about the FDIC shows that we really need a new Resolution Trust Corporation, either independent or as part of the FDIC which can take on those cases that cannot be resolved quickly. Those are probably easy to identify. The RTC did a very good job and saved us a lot of money by not having to stage fire sales as I’m sure the FDIC does. Got two links to pass along myself. If this one is true, it signals the end of the commodity bubble and a big leg down. All the credible stories about the Chinese “recovery” point to the creation of commodity and real estate bubbles there in place of real recovery, much like Easy Al’s prescrIption at the turn of the century (weird sounding in that context). The Chinese banks are being told to lend like there is no tomorrow and the loans in large part are going into speculation in real estate and commodities, since there ...(Read more of this comment)are few good business uses for the money after the collapse of exports. http://business.smh.com.au/business/china-signals-end-of-stockpiling-20090629-d2i9.html This other is nostalgic: Ralph Nader writing about how right Ross Perot was about NAFTA, GM and other things. And he was. I still remember his proposal for a $1.00/gallon gasoline tax to pay off the national debt. It would have also encouraged fuel efficiency. Of course, the usual anti-tax furor erupted, but it would have solved a lot of problems. Instead we launched into the era of the SUV and sending all our money over to fund terrorism. The good old days when all three candidates for president were left handers: a superior breed. http://nader.org/index.php?/archives/2127-Ignoring-Propethic-Predictors.html(Show less of this comment)

I think Mohamed El-Erian has hit the nil on the head. just what are we (the US) going to do next? since the days of high finance and leverage and easy credit are over for now. add on the the additional head wind of much much lower consumption as US consumers relearn old lessons (from the GD). just what is going to drive the economy now? all of the previous standard bearers (technology, plastics, oil) are gone. the only things that are still going are health care and education, but neither of them can drive the economy, and they will soon enough face head winds of their own (think medical vacations to LCC, or outsourcing education to LCC via the internet). thats the trillion trillion dollar question. and as of yet we have no answer. if we don’t find one, expect to have a lot of changes in ways that many will not like. protectionism will be just the first one and the lowest impact one

>> I sure hope she fades away quickly, after cashing in on her fleeting moment as much as she can I'm sure. I click on every link I can about Palin. She’s more entertaining than Britney Spears. What will she do or say next? What would comedians and the Democratic Party do without her? Even the libertarian party stands to benefit. She’s a gift!

willid3 Yep, the stimulus tax cuts are largely going to repair household balance sheets or bulk up those that aren’t necessarily in tatters. The ironic thing is that many who aren’t even in terrible economic condition are saving more because of the fear of future tax raises due to the huge borrowing being done for “stimulus.” So we’re borrowing from the future so that people can save that money to pay future taxes to pay off the borrowing we’re doing. Brilliant. It’s like me taking out a loan so that I can afford to pay that loan off in the future. Huh?? Instead we have to face the brutal facts and write down debt across the spectrum with those who’ve risked money taking losses. No other way to fix this.

other signs of economic decline http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/07/offices-rising-vacancies-falling-rents.html having lived in SOCAL before, this is almost unheard of http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/07/apartment-rents-decline-in-los-angeles.html and its not a good sign for the smaller banks either. they may have avoided the retail RE boom(bomb), but they did avoid the other boom(bomb) i think O and company thought it wasn’t as bad as it is, mainly because main stream economists said it wasn’t so bad (of course this is the same bunch that said it wasn’t going south either). and they still were trying to do what had become main stream, but was failing. it also what they could get through Congress who was (and still is) living in the last 8 years. of that 800 billion stimulus. the vast majority was tax cuts. which seem to have not done more that slow the pace of decline. the actual spending on infrastructure hasn’t happened yet

Michael Lewis: The Man Who Crashed the World (Vanity Fair) More on the AIG FP debacle comes to light It always circles back to Goldman Sachs, doesn’t it.