ByJONATHAN HOENIG
In the late 1990s>, nobody cared about gold funds like the then-dormant Central Fund of Canada (CEF)
The point is that you've got to have the right product at the right moment. Sometimes a product is a good product, yet just slightly ahead of its time. Northern Trust (NTRS),
Northern Trust is dabbling in ETFs? Indeed. In April, just as the equity markets began falling apart, Northern Trust launched a series of ETFs that, given the equity markets since then, have largely been ignored. Most are country-specific stock funds that, unlike the popular iShares ETFs, are actually based on the index for which a country's equity market is most widely known. For example, the NETS CAC40 Index Fund (FRC)
| Source NetsEtfs.com> | |
|---|---|
| Nippon Building Fund | 20.04% |
| Japan Real Estate Investment Co | 14.85% |
| Nomura Real Estate Office Fund | 7.12% |
| Japan Prime Realty Investment | 4.71% |
| Japan Retail Fund | 4.44% |
| Mori Trust Sogo REIT | 4.43% |
| Orix JREIT | 4.15% |
| Tokyu REIT | 3.73% |
| Global One REIT | 3.28% |
| Frontier Real Estate | 3.18% |
JRE doesn't track the Japanese equity markets, as does the NETS TOPIX Index Fund (TYI)
That alone should pique your interest. I can remember having to recommend funds like American Century International Bond (BEGBX)
Tokyo Thrashing
NETS Tokyo Stock Exchange REIT Index (JRE) 2 month>
As an asset class, real estate has gone through a complete bull market and reversal since I first began writing about it back in 2001. At that time, most investors were still waiting on the rebound in Sun Microsystems (JAVA)
Regular readers know I've been interested in Japan in recent months, investing in many of the securities mentioned in this story. So far I've been largely unsuccessful given the global rout in stocks and the Nikkei's move down to 26-year lows. NTT DoCoMo (DCM)
Shares of J-REITS have also fallen sharply, as reflected in the 24% drop in JRE since its September introduction. It's largest holding (20.04%), Nippon Building Fund, is down 57% from its May 2007 high, while its second-largest, Japan Real Estate Investment Corp. (14.85%) is off by 54% since the same high. These stocks, neither of which trades independently in the U.S., are undeniably weak -- as is actual bricks-and-mortar real estate in Japan. Data from the Japanese government show commercial real estate prices at mid-1970s levels and down 70% from their early 1990s highs.
Land Prices in Japan From 1974-2007
Source: Japan Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Land Price Data>
Knowing that the asset class has been shunned, there's the very real possibility this fund could get shut down. The ETF business itself is shrinking, with smaller firms like FocusShares and HealthShares closing or consolidating funds. JRE has gathered a scant $2 million in assets and would be an easy candidate to shutter if the NETS unit was scaled back.
To me, a stock is like sushi: You generally don't want it on sale. One can objectively say that right now Japanese REITs are by no means in a bull market. But one day, most likely when few are actually paying attention, this unique asset class will enter a new bull phase. When that occurs, this will be the fund you'll want to own.



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