The Sovereign Risk Trade Simplified

Nearly a decade removed from the last round of sovereign crises, ETFs and ETNs make bets on foreign debt and currencies easier.

The last wave of country defaults and currency crises made hedge fund managers into both stars and scapegoats. But, now, almost a decade removed from the last major sovereign debt disaster in Argentina, almost any investor can wear those crowns.

During the 1997 Asian financial crisis, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad blamed speculators for causing his country's economic woes. He criticized George Soros for shorting the Ringgit, just as Soros shorted the British Pound five years before.

A myriad of financial innovations since then -- including exchange-traded funds and notes -- have democratized macro investing in currencies or sovereign debt. Sovereign risk is now as easy to buy or sell as General Motors, and likely with much better results.

A decade ago many countries in Latin American countries were in the same bankrupt predicament as those currently in distress in Europe. Now, though, Brazil's gross domestic product is poised to best the United Kingdom's for the first time. In fact, the entire region is viewed as a savvy (and safer) alternative to Europe's debt-laden countries. The Market Vectors LatAm Aggregate Bond ETF (BONO), for example, currently yields 5.7% and offers investors the ability to bet on or against intermediate term bonds in Brazil, Mexico, Columbia other Latin American credits.

WisdomTree's Asia Local Debt Fund (ALD) holds bonds from Australia, Malaysia, Singapore and South Korea. The fund currently yields near 2.2% and holds bonds which mature within 5 years.

And while Greece's bonds have imploded, Germany's have soared, benefiting shares of DB German Bund Futures ETN (BUNL), which track intermediate term German bonds and has risen nearly 15% year-to-date. Italian interest rates have skyrocketed in recent weeks, leading to losses for investors) in PowerShares Italian Treasury Bond ETN (ITLY), but gains for those with the foresight to sell it short.

As with all sovereign risk trades, triggers include higher interest rates, which would drop bond prices, or a stronger U.S. dollar, which would negatively impact bonds dominated in foreign currency. And the essentials of money management -- cutting losers and letting winners run -- still apply, just as they do to stocks.

—Jonathan Hoenig is managing member at Capitalistpig Hedge Fund LLC

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