Building a Presidential Portfolio With ETFs

Given the rapidly deteriorating state of the economy it's suspicious that Barack Obama would even desire to be president. After all, who in their right mind would want to inherit this mess?

Come January, inherit it he shall. Although it remains to be seen how quickly the new president can turn the economy around, this much seems clear: A sweeping mandate from the electorate will make some sectors more sensitive to an Obama administration than others.

Let's start with defense. The common misperception is that it pays to own defense stocks only when a Republican is in the White House. Wrong. It turns out that defense stocks have outperformed the market by 19% over the last eight election years irrespective of the party in power, according to David Darst, chief investment strategist for Morgan Stanley's Global Wealth Management Group.

As much as a Democratic Congress and administration might want to pare back on defense spending, the reality of the nation's current military commitment complicates matters. As Mark Ragusa, president and chief investment officer at Money Map Advisors, says: "Defense spending depends on what is happening in the world, not on who's in the White House."

Outside of defense there are some sectors that stand to benefit disproportionately now that Obama has prevailed, and sector ETFs offer a convenient way to play them. (See chart below.)

When it comes to energy, Morgan Stanley says that Obama will help natural gas, wind and solar power come to the fore, so check out United States Natural Gas (UNG), First Trust Global Wind Energy (FAN) and Market Vectors Solar Energy (KWT) .

On health care, Obama's seen making drugs cheaper, something that bodes ill for big pharmaceutical companies and thus not a boon for SPDR S&P Pharmaceuticals (XPH) . At the same time, greater access to health care will help Medicaid companies and hospital managers, a situation that would aid components of iShares Dow Jones U. S. Healthcare Providers (IHF) .

Perhaps most interesting is the boost Obama could give beaten-down retailers, restaurants and other consumer-discretionary stocks. It seems counterintuitive, what with consumer spending on the decline, but Keith McCullough, chief executive and chief investment officer at Research Edge, sees Obama's victory spelling good things for the sector.

"Consumer spending accounts for 70% of the economy," says McCullough. "It's not a political comment but everything changes under an Obama win, and change will be good because it will instill confidence." If you want to go long on the American consumer, try Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) .

Barack Obama ETF Portfolio

Sector

ETF

Ticker

Consumer DiscretionaryConsumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR XLY
Hospital Managers and Medicaid CompaniesiShares Dow Jones U. S. Healthcare Providers IHF
Natural GasUnited States Natural Gas UNG
Solar PowerMarket Vectors Solar Energy KWT
Wind PowerFirst Trust Global Wind Energy FAN

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