20 Funds to Guard Against Deflation

The debate over whether government stimulus poses an inflation threat has given way to new worries a possible decline in prices, demand and even wages caused by deflation.

For most Americans, deflation is the stuff of history or case studies overseas. There has not been a major deflationary period in the U.S. since the Great Depression.

It could be about time. As the market has turned flat and consumer spending has stalled, more economists and officials have begun to consider the likelihood and consequences of deflation. James Bullard, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, has been vocal about the threat of the economy falling into a cycle of waning demand, wages and prices, akin to that of Japan in the 1990s.

Not everyone is convinced. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke dismissed the threat in a speech Friday. Falling into deflation is not a significant risk for the United States at this time, but that is true in part because the public understands that the Federal Reserve will be vigilant and proactive in addressing significant further disinflation, he said in a statement.

Still, many investors who never considered such an environment have at least begun planning for one. Others, including Pimco s Bill Gross, have already adjusted their asset allocations for price declines.

Investment strategies for a deflationary period depend on how low prices go, says Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist, Wells Capital Management.

Mild deflation can be bullish and has driven the U.S. economy to booms at times, he says. Investors might flock to riskier assets during booms led by productivity revolutions the Industrial Revolution or information technology when prices can fall quickly because productivity is growing fast, Paulsen says.

However, if companies can t keep up with a decline in top-line prices through increased productivity, then destructive deflation sets in. When the party is over, companies have no profitability, they fall into themselves, and it becomes a vicious cycle, Paulsen says.

For this week s Fund Screen we looked areas industry watchers say may offer a cozy nook to safeguard against deflation. They pointed to funds with exposure to four areas: municipal bonds, money market funds, Treasuries and emerging market debt. Below are the top three performing municipal bond, long and intermediate government bond and emerging market debt funds for the year to date, which carry no loads, are open to new investment and were in the top 10% for their category by trailing three and five-year returns. In addition, we've listed the top ten money market funds by trailing 5-year returns, have a minimum initial purchase of less than $10,000 and have beat their category average year to date and for the past three and five year periods.

First, let s look at municipal bonds, which should increase in value as other interest rates decrease in a deflationary environment. They are free from federal taxes, and buyers who live in the issuing state also may get a break on state taxes. However, without diversification, holders run the risk of the municipality hitting financial problems. National municipal bond funds offer less of a tax advantage, but more safety.

Many municipal bonds would not perform well in destructive, run-for-the-hills deflation, because issuers would have more trouble making payments. However, in deflation with sluggish growth, investors would probably do well in high quality municipals, Paulsen says.

The classic deflation hedge is a position in government or high-quality corporate bonds, especially longer term. Because longer- term bonds have a higher yield as overall interest rates decrease, a nominal yield is effectively worth more, says Adam Leone, an advisor with Modera Wealth Management. On the other hand, many investors don t want to bet the farm on deflation, so they buy Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, or TIPS, more volatile bonds that hold their value if deflation turns to inflation.

Deflation tends to lift a currency s value, so just holding dollar-denominated assets, like money market funds, is another hedging strategy, says Jack Ablin, chief investment officer, Harris Private Bank. Investors may earn next to nothing, but their cash gains more purchasing power in a deflationary environment.

Another way to hedge against deflation is to invest in foreign debt. Ablin says emerging market economies would be intriguing in a deflationary environment because they would have inflation and could let their currencies rise a bit to rebalance the world a little, he says, adding that could be a home run.

Investors looking to bet on deflation with equities should stick with high-quality dividend paying companies that can maintain pricing power, capitalize and gain market share in a tough environment, Leone says.

The Criteria: The funds on the table have a minimum investment of $10,000 or less. They're open to new money and charge an annual expense ratio no greater than 1.25%. In addition, their performance track records were in the top 10% year-to-date and over the trailing three and five-year periods for their peer group, except for the money market funds, which are ranked by five-year return and beat their category average year-to-date and for the past three and five-year periods. As usual, we did not include load funds.

Emerging Market Bond Funds
FundTickerNet Assets
(Millions)
YTD
Return
1 Year
Return
5 Year
Return
Expense
Ratio
TCW Emerging Markets Income I TGEIX 56715.5747325.9745111.152161.17
Fidelity New Markets Income FNMIX 364.911.0508619.4477210.257120.9
Fidelity Advisor Emerging Markets Inc I FMKIX 836.410.8303519.0051710.302350.95

Intermediate Government Bond Funds
FundTickerNet Assets
(Millions)
YTD
Return
1 Year
Return
5 Year
Return
Expense
Ratio
Vanguard Interm-Term Treasury Adm VFIUX 6683.19.7302610.143196.963890.12
T. Rowe Price US Treasury Interm PRTIX 504.39.653419.812856.842110.52
Managed Account US Mortgage MSUMX 131.19.2190212.915837.199160

Long Government Bond Funds

FundTickerNet Assets
(Millions)
YTD
Return
1 Year
Return
5 Year
Return
Expense
Ratio
Delaware Extended Duration Bond Inst DEEIX 364.517.1880324.682298.917380.99

Muni National Long-Term Bond Funds
FundTickerNet Assets
(Millions)
YTD
Return
1 Year
Return
5 Year
Return
Expense
Ratio
Fidelity Tax-Free Bond FTABX 20516.8083510.302444.939750.25
Elfun Tax-Exempt Income ELFTX 1808.16.6256510.260725.111340.18
DWS Managed Municipal Bonds S SCMBX 4208.66.3967411.051625.263120.55

Money Market Funds
FundTickerNet Assets
(Millions)
YTD
Return
1 Year
Return
5 Year
Return
Expense
Ratio
Source: Morningstar. Note: All returns through Aug. 25. Money market funds limited to assets greater than $50MM
DWS Institutional Daily Assets DAFXX 9919.40.154720.248353.114160.12
Western Asset Instl Liqd Rsrvs SVB I SVIXX 6840.40.068990.121713.042880.3
Invesco Treasurer's Ser Tr Prem Inv IMRXX 4079.20.057220.103112.992510.21
Wells Fargo Advantage Money Market Trust

WMMXX

2332.60.113390.171582.977160.24
SEI Daily Income Money Market A TCMXX 442.30.076830.122612.973880.24
BNY Mellon Money Market M MLMXX 1124.90.031150.072252.945450.33
BlackRock Liquidity TempFund Adm BTMXX 60681.60.032240.060572.926720.31
SEI Daily Income Prime Obligation A TCPXX 4476.50.064460.107242.925030.23
Vanguard Prime Money Market Inv VMMXX 106920.90.03360.086362.91210.28
HighMark Diversified Money Market Fid HMDXX 2565.60.108150.235142.897180.58

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