7 Pieces of Good News About the Economy

In a dismal and stagnant job market, rosy economic indicators may seem like a rarity even if they aren t rare at all.

Even as recent data, company news and federal announcements suggest the economy is perking up, the sagging labor market continues to weigh on conventional wisdom. The public is going to worry about the economy until they see the job market pick up, says John Canally, an economist at LPL Financial, a Boston-based network of financial advisors.

The job market is a real concern for economists, as well as the public. Consumer spending is crucial to economic growth, so a worried public could hold back the recovery. The key thing is employment: Is it a leading indicator or a lagging indicator in this situation? says Doug Roberts, the chief investment strategist for Channel Capital Research. Employment is traditionally considered a lagging indicator, but Roberts says that the pickup so far has been driven by various government stimulus programs, and a more sustainable recovery will need to rely on an increase in consumer confidence that gets people back into stores.

Many companies have cut deeply to control costs and have turned to their reduced staffs to take on extra responsibilities. When anxious workers are stretched thin and profits hinge on people having jobs and buying products something s got to give. It s kind of like the paradox of thrift: It s good if one company [runs tight], but if every company does that, there s no demand for anyone else s product, says Robert Johnson, the associate director of economic analysis at Morningstar.

Still, many companies are posting results that trend upward, and there are lots of other signs that a recovery is underway even if it hasn t yet reached the job market. Most (working) economists agree that the momentum has shifted; the question is how fast and by how much will the economy bounce back.

It s hard for me to find an indicator that isn t up, Johnson says. He says he expects the economy to bounce back from a severe downturn with a strong recovery. My personal disposition is, it s going to be a lot better than most people think, he says.

Here are seven recent pieces of good news that may indicate economic growth is on the horizon:

Take it from the Federal Reserve: Growth was on the way. The prospects for a return to growth in the near term appear good, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said in a speech earlier this month at the Brookings Institution. "From a technical perspective, the recession is very likely over at this point.

However, the Fed chief did not predict a strong or swift recovery. The economic recovery is likely to be relatively slow at first, with unemployment declining only gradually from high levels, Bernanke said. "It's still going to feel like a very weak economy for some time."

Photos: Getty Images

Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said that the Consumer Price Index rose just 0.4% in August and it has slipped 1.5% over the past year. The August increase was driven by a bump in the gasoline index, which rose 9.1% from July to August but has fallen 30% over the past 12 months. The food index was essentially unchanged in August, and new vehicle prices were down 1.3%, while prices for used cars and trucks were up 1.9%.

The lack of inflation is good news for workers still facing a tough job market with few prospects for wage increases. It also gives the Fed the leeway to keep interest rates low to encourage lending.

The pace of M&A activity has picked up over the past few weeks with several billion-dollar deals made or proposed, including Kraft s bid for Cadbury, Disney s purchase of Marvel, Warner Chilcott s purchase of Procter & Gamble s prescription drugs unit, and Dell s acquisition this week of Perot Systems, for about $3.9 billion in cash.

This activity could signal that big companies that have emerged from the recession relatively healthy are looking to snap up weakened rivals or that some firms are looking to position themselves for stronger growth as the economy perks up. For more on what this trend means for investors, see our story.

General Motors Vice Chairman Bob Lutz said last week that the company may need to increase production of four of its most popular new models to keep up with demand. And making those extra cars might require hiring more workers at some factories. Bankrupt in June, hiring in September sounds like good news.

For now, the auto industry has gotten an artificial boost from the wildly popular cash for clunkers program. Of course, that incentive may have simply shifted some car sales from the fourth quarter to the third, as consumers rushed to take advantage of the deal. However, even if the industry s fourth quarter is weak, demand for cars will pick up eventually, Johnson says. Cars wear out, they break down. It isn t like you can totally put those off forever, he says.

Industrial output rose 0.8% in August, according to the Federal Reserve. Manufacturing production expanded by 0.6%, and excluding motor vehicles and parts, the index rose 0.4%.

Over the first half of the year all companies cut inventories at the fastest pace ever, Canally says. Now, they are realizing that they may have cut back too far and are being forced to pick up production. Once that kind of pickup starts, it may slow down, but it s unlikely to reverse, he says.

The Philadelphia Fed s September Business Outlook Survey found the region s manufacturing sector showing signs of growth. The survey s index of current activity jumped from 4.2 in August to 14.1 in September, the highest reading since June 2007. Although employment and work hour indexes were still negative, indicators of future activity approached 2004 levels, the report said.

The Chicago Institute for Supply Management s Purchasing Managers Index ticked up from 43.4 in July to 50.0 in August, ending 10 straight months of contraction. Production and new orders indexes were both in positive territory for the first time in a year.

Retail sales rose a surprising 2.7% in August, according to the Commerce Department. Cash for clunkers did spur some of this increase sales of motor vehicles and parts were up 10.6% from July to August but other sectors also saw gains.

Household net worth also increased during the second quarter of the year, for the first time since the third quarter of 2007, according to the Federal Reserve s Flow of Funds report. The Fed said household debt contracted for the second consecutive quarter.

Consumers have already started to repair their balance sheets, Canally says. It s not like it has to start now.

And not every consumer is drowning in debt, Johnson says. We all know somebody like that, but it doesn t mean every one of us is like that, he says. The healthier consumers who see bargains and start shopping will pick up where the government stimulus leaves off, sparking sustainable growth, Johnson says.

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