A 2008 Year in Review a Year in Advance

IGNORE THE CALENDAR.

This is my 2008 year in review, published a little early. Some accuracy had to be sacrificed to leave the rest of the media pack in the dust. Still, everything below remains 100% possible, some of it even plausible. Here's hoping life writes a happier script.

The Chinese never really said that living in interesting times is a curse. And interesting though the past year has been, it's certainly delivered its share of blessings.

Who would have dared to predict during the summer dog days that the S&P 500 would have a chance to end 2008 back above 1400? Or that crude would crash 50% all the way down to $80 a barrel? And who knew that Michael Jackson's campaign on behalf of Debtors Anonymous following his smash comeback tour would leave such a lasting mark on the national psyche? Only Paris Hilton's too-brief stay with the Cistercian sisters made a bigger splash.

Indeed, one of the biggest watersheds in 2008 has been the dramatic upturn in the national mood during the year's final two months. The number of Americans who believe the country is on the wrong track has dropped from 79% immediately following the resignation of Sen. Ted Stevens to a mere 49% now.

The housing depression grinds on, while some pundits now say that unemployment could peak next year near 6%. But the National Salvation Committee has already met, and seems sure to make some useful suggestions soon. It was brilliant of the president-elect to co-opt Democratic kingmakers Oprah Winfrey and Warren Buffett, and to balance them with Jack Welch on behalf of the country club set.

Whether Congress will prove receptive to such radical notions as the elimination of caps on Social Security contributions by high earners is another matter, given the Democrats' failure to significantly expand their majorities. On the other hand, Mike Huckabee has already been forced to acknowledge that his campaign pledge "to completely eliminate all federal income and payroll taxes" will require much Christian patience given the political realities.

The very notion of a President Huckabee had seemed so far-fetched in June, with Hillary Clinton holding a commanding lead in the polls as the recession deepened and consumer confidence continued to plummet. But Michael Bloomberg's late entry into the race changed everything, splitting the block of voters who believe in evolution while underscoring the creationist candidate's god-given homespun charm.

In the end, Huckabee attracted a respectable number of college graduates thanks to the wily choice of Ron Paul as his running mate. Paul's presence on the ticket caused the August gold crash once the polls began to shift in their favor, though bullion is now back above a grand an ounce following the leak of plans to cut IRS staff in half.

It's been a turbulent year in the boardroom as well, as former GE chief Jeff Immelt can attest. Immelt stepped aside amid a shareholder revolt over GE shares' performance in August, replaced after a costly talent search by Suzy Welch.

Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman Sachs outlasted Immelt by just a couple of weeks, resigning when many of Goldman's bets against subprime mortgages proved uncollectible. The Sultan of Brunei used the appreciated ringgit to buy 9.9% of the firm on the cheap.

In other news, George Mitchell, Mitt Romney and Roger Clemens will investigate what went wrong with the Olympic effort in Beijing, and how the U.S. might enhance its performance.

With the writers' strike entering its second year, "Shop 'Til You Drop" retains its prime-time dominance. Who knew people would do such things for a chance at a Visa shopping spree?

As 2009 dawns we can toast the nation's willingness to address longstanding problems head-on and to forge a new consensus out of adversity. U.S. stocks have never been this cheap relative to the rest of the world. And it's been a long time since real estate has been this affordable. So go ahead and lift a glass to 2008. After a year like that, we deserve a drink.

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