Chalk it up as yet another historic aspect of our Great Recession: short-term interest rates that have hovered around zero since last December. Investors will learn next week whether the government intends to keep them there when the Federal Open Market Committee meets on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Investors closely watch the eight annual meetings of the FOMC, a group that includes Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and 11 other members of the Federal Reserve. Stocks briefly rallied on Sept. 23 after the last statement the group released noted, economic activity has picked up following its severe downturn. The FOMC sets what s known as the federal funds rate, the overnight interest rate at which banks lend one another money. This rate influences the short-term interest rates, foreign exchange rates and ultimately the rates consumers receive on mortgages and other loans. (While the market sets long-term rates, they usually move in tandem with the federal funds rate.)

The FOMC uses loan rates as a lever to control the flow of money in the economy. Despite some improvement in the overall economy, investors expect the FOMC will leave rates at the current level of between zero and 0.25%. This low level stimulates loan activity, which in turn encourages business to expand. Banks are less eager to loan money when rates are high and they can make less on what s known as spread, or the difference between the rates at which they borrow and lend money. Ultra-low rates represent one way that the federal government has propped up the flagging economy, along with purchases of Treasury and mortgage-backed bonds and other measures.

The big question looming beyond next week s rate decision is how successful the federal government will be in withdrawing its massive stimulus from the economy and letting the private sector take over. If the hand-off is sloppy, interest rates are not what you re going to worry about, says Mark Hudoff, a bond portfolio manager with Hotchkis and Wiley Capital Management. The fear then, he notes, is an economy that can t stand on its own. The government will withdraw much of its stimulus next year. Mark Kiesel, head of global corporate bonds at bond investment shop PIMCO, says when that happens, we probably won t see green shoots to the extent the market is romancing.