ByDAN BURROWS
So much for the> dog days of August. According to the latest consumer confidence data from the Conference Board, consumers are feeling less depressed, thanks to an improved outlook on the economy and, yes, jobs.
This month's reading on consumer sentiment, which surveys folks' feelings about the current and future state of the economy, not only rose, but came in well ahead expectations. The Conference Board said the Consumer Confidence index climbed to 54.1 from 47.4 in July, beating economists' average forecast of 47.5 by a wide margin, according to Thomson Reuters.
Does this mean consumers, the bedrock of the economy who drive 70% of gross domestic product, will start shopping again? Well, don't hold your breath. Any short-term boost in confidence doesn't automatically mean people feel more confident about opening their wallets.
"Consumer confidence tends to track the labor market more closely than any other indicator," says Carl Steidtmann, chief economist and director of Deloitte Research. "We have seen some improvement in unemployment claims, so people aren't as depressed. But the number is still pretty low. We're not suddenly becoming euphoric."
The 54.1 index reading is pretty low -- anything below 90 is indicative of an unhealthy economy. But at least it appears to be headed in the right direction -- and for the right reasons: Consumers are a little less worried about losing their jobs and some are even finding it easier to find work.
From May to July, job losses averaged 331,000 a month, according to the Department of Labor, nearly half the average loss rate from November to April. Thursday's report on initial jobless claims is forecast to come in a 565,000, down from last week's 576,000. Meanwhile, unemployment ticked down to 9.4% in July from 9.5% in June.
As bad as the labor market remains, it appears that consumers are starting to feel the difference. But feeling it and doing something about it are two entirely different things when it comes to consumer spending. Economist expect a slight increase in personal spending figures for July, which are slated to be released on Friday, but say those gains will have little to do with confidence and more to do with a few pockets of strength -- namely the government's "cash for clunkers" program, which temporarily boosted spending on autos.
"You can't use consumer confidence to predict spending from month to month," Brusca says. "And I'm not going to pretend this bounce-back means anything great. But over broad periods consumer confidence is very important to spending. And now it's giving us a little bit better picture."
One recurring problem with consumer confidence surveys like that of the Conference Board or the Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index due out on Friday is that consumers often say one thing but do another, says Michael Niemira, chief economist and director of research for the International Council of Shopping Centers.
And, right now, consumers are socking cash away. The personal savings rate stood at 4.6% in June -- a drop off from the 6.2% rate reported the previous month-- but still well above the year-ago rate of 3.5%. Meanwhile personal spending tumbled 1.2% in the second quarter.
"It's always hard to line up consumer confidence and spending but it does appear that confidence has been stronger," he says. "What's far more important is to see this improvement continue, because presumably as the economic news gets better, confidence starts to build up."
And eventually those sustained improvements in confidence should get consumers spending again, says Brusca. "The confidence number was all about the rise in expectations," he says. "But it hasn't given us a 'go' sign yet."



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