SmartMoney's Election Blog

Investing, Obama-Style

11:43 p.m. | Thomas E. Weber

From energy plays to health care, here are some exchange-traded funds for an Obamacentric portfolio.

Thanks so much for joining us. Have a good night.

How to Be a Good Loser

11:32 p.m. | Rob Wherry

Now that the dwindling electoral map possibilites are anointing Barack Obama the winner of a brutal presidential election race, John McCain is likely to face an important decision: Hold a grudge or be a gracious loser. We typed in the phrase "how to be a good loser" into Google and found several articles that suggested how one can concede defeat with dignity. We aren't sure the Arizona senator, known to have a bit of a temper, will follow each and every suggestion. So we handicap the possibilities. See if you agree.

Cheer on your opponent publicly after he's defeated you.
Probability: High.
If the cameras are on McCain will go out on a high note. Behind closed doors, though, is a whole other situation.

Never blame another a colleague for losing the race. After all, even a presidential candidate can learn from his mistakes.
Probability: Low
We expect the blame game to start as soon as the sun rises. Expect to see the phrase "circular firing squad" tossed around a lot.

Play fair now and in the future because after all nobody likes a poor sport.
Probability: Really Low
Just like Muhammed Ali, we would expect the Republicans to get up off the mat and start planning for the next round. Let the race begin for 2012.

Young and Restless

11:21 p.m. | Rob Wherry

It looks like age played a part in the presidential election, after all. Rock the Vote has announced that the youth vote played a major part in several swing states.

For example, in Pennsylvania, a key win for Barack Obama, the group is estimating nearly one in every five voters was probably casting a ballot for a president for the first time.

Networks Call Election: Sen. Barack Obama Elected 44th President

11:03 p.m. | Mark Glassman

Victories in California, Virgina, Washington and Oregon lifted Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) to a winning margin in the electoral college and guaranteeing him the presidency, according to network projections.

The first African American president of the United States will be sworn in on Jan. 20, 2009.

The current electoral vote count:

  • Obama -- 297

  • McCain -- 139

Obama... the New Reagan?

10:38 p.m. | Mark Glassman

Our colleague Matt Heimer reports from Little Rock, Ark.:



I'm at dinner with the board of an economic-development group, in a private ballroom overlooking the state capitol where Bill Clinton celebrated his victory in 1992. Due to a quirk of local law, the club can't serve booze at the dinner table, so we're all crowded in the bar for drinks -- which means we're there when CNN calls Pennsylvania, then Ohio, for Obama.

This is a pretty typical Chamber of Commerce crowd: mostly Republican, but more conservative fiscally than socially. What's striking is that nobody seems to alarmed by what looks like a Democrat victory. And it seems like they're particularly optimistic about what an Obama win means for the economy. "Somehow he became the 'personal responsibility' guy in this election," says a local hospital exec. "He's not saying, 'I'll bail you out.' He's saying: 'We'll fix the country, but you voters are going to have to step up.' He reminds me of Kennedy -- 'ask not what your country,' et cetera."

"I agree," counters an official with the local electric utility. "But he's not Kennedy. He's Reagan."

Economic Morning in America?

Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi Lift McCain to 135

10:24 p.m. | Mark Glassman

...but those may be hollow wins. CNN reporter Dana Bash says a senior McCain aide sees "no path to victory" at this point in the race.

Current electoral vote count:

  • Obama -- 207

  • McCain -- 135

Let the Economic Second-Guessing Begin

10:17 p.m. | Thomas E. Weber

How rich is rich? The "mental recession." Here's one writer's list of the McCain campaign's top 10 economic gaffes.

Electoral Update: Obama 207, McCain 89

10:05 p.m. | Mark Glassman

Electoral vote count and most recent victories:

Obama -- 207
New Mexico
Iowa

McCain -- 89
Louisiana
Utah
Kansas

A Boost for Liquidity

9:55 p.m. | Rob Wherry

A time-honored tradition on Capitol Hill, regardless of whether you are a Republican or a Democrat, is to party with a drink in your hand on Election Night like its 1999. Granted, it's only fun if your party actually wins.




Judging from this story from the Washington Post, it seems like the Democrats have booked every Irish pub, party room and martini bar in town.

Maybe the bar tabs will give a little boost to D.C.'s sagging economy.

Obama Takes Ohio

9:38 p.m. | Mark Glassman

The Midwestern working class have given Sen. Barack Obama a critical victory in Ohio. No Republican has ever won the presidency without carrying the state.

The economy weighed particularly heavy on Ohio voters. A slowdown in the manufacturing sector has crippled the state's factories and left many voters without jobs.

Current electoral vote count:

  • Obama: 194

  • McCain: 69

Voters Brace for Higher Taxes

9:32 p.m. | Thomas E. Weber

From the exit polls: most Americans expect their taxes are headed higher, CNN says.

McCain Takes Georgia, West Virginia

9:26 p.m. | Mark Glassman

Current electoral vote count:

  • Obama: 174

  • McCain: 69

An Economic Scapegoat?

9:15 p.m. | Rob Wherry

While Americans watch the results roll in, over at The New York Times the paper is already giving John McCain a scapegoat -- and it isn't Sarah Palin.



Columnist Floyd Norris writes that just as Richard Nixon is said to have blamed William McChesney Martin, then the Federal Reserve chairman, for not energizing the economy in time for him to beat John Kennedy, in the event of a loss McCain can squarely point a finger at Treasury secretary Henry Paulson.

Norris says that before the demise of Lehman Brothers, McCain was either leading Barack Obama in polls or running neck and neck. But when Lehman went under an already sagging economy fell off a cliff -- maybe even tipping it into a recession. The political spotlight shifted from foreign affairs -- McCain's strong suit -- to the economy -- not so much up his alley. Headed into Election Day, 14 polls had Obama well ahead of McCain. Paulson, though, doesn't have to worry about being fired by either candidate. He has already said he is leaving the job as soon as a new administration is sworn in.

Electoral Update: Obama 174, McCain 49

9:01 p.m. | Mark Glassman

Electoral counts and the latest races called:

Obama -- 174
Rhode Island
Michigan
Wisconsin
New York
Minnesota

McCain -- 49
Wyoming
North Dakota
Alabama

Asian Markets Gain. Election Optimism?

8:53 p.m. | Thomas E. Weber

Bloomberg reports stock markets in Asia are opening higher, with some analysts citing optimism that the U.S. election will change investor sentiment.

Obama Takes Pennsylvania, New Hampshire

8:41 p.m. | Mark Glassman

Current electoral count:

  • Obama: 102

  • McCain: 34

TV News and the Obi-Wan Kenobi Factor

8:19 p.m. | Rob Wherry

The computer geeks at CNN are channeling their inner "

" fan on election night. The network beamed in a hologram of correspondent Jessica Yellin from Chicago, a la Princess Leia in the original science fiction film. The 3-D image was produced using 44 cameras and 20 computers, says USA Today.



Star Wars

CNN has been showing off its technology this election cycle. At times, John King and his multimedia election map come off like the smart kid showing up his lesser classmates. There's good reason, though, for the theatrics: Election night is like the Super Bowl for CNN.

Do all those gadgets and gurus matter? Time Warner (TWX), the parent of CNN, has seen its stock sink 38.8% year-to-date. Only Walt Disney (DIS), parent of ABC, has done better. (Its shares are down 21% in 2008.) News Corp. (NWS.A), which owns the Fox network (and half of SmartMoney.com), CBS (CBS) and General Electric (GE), home of NBC, are all down more than Time Warner. Does Mickey Mouse need a light saber?

Electoral Vote Update: Obama 77, McCain 34

8:04 p.m. | Mark Glassman

Obama -- 77
Mass.
Ill.
Ct.
Md.
NJ.
Maine -- 3 of 4 electoral votes
Delaware
DC
VT

McCain -- 34
Oklahoma
Tenn.
S.C.
KY

8 p.m. closings
Alabama
FL
Miss
Missouri
NH
Penn.

Obama Projected to Win VT, McCain KY

7:24 p.m. | Mark Glassman

Also, polls now closed in Georgia, Indiana and Virginia.

Exit Polls: Round 1: It's the Economy

5:41 p.m. | Mark Glassman

Early exit polls show majority of voters identified the economy as the key issue in the election, The Huffington Post reports:

"The key concern to most voters, far and away, was the economy, which 62 percent of respondents said was foremost on their mind.

Iraq, once thought to be the chief issue of the election, was chosen by only 10 percent of voters are their primary concern. (Among that subset of voters, Obama had a 2-1 lead.)"

**UPDATE: The AP reports 6 out of 10 voters tapped the economy as the top issue.

The Presidency and Hometown Stocks

5:15 p.m. | Rob Wherry

Is there an advantage for stocks based in the president s hometown?

President Bush split his younger years between Houston and other oil towns across Texas. Bespoke Investment Group found that during the eight-year Bush administration that is about to end stocks in the S&P 500 actually fell 30% while stocks based in Houston gained a sweet 165%. Of course, much of the gain in Houston can be attributed to red-hot energy stocks that overshadowed high profile flameouts like Enron.

As America chooses its next president, Bespoke is tracking a basket of stocks in Chicago and Phoenix, the hometowns of Barack Obama and John McCain, respectively.

Are Traders Still Focused on President Bush?

4:09 p.m. | Thomas E. Weber

Today's big rally aside, have the markets priced in the next president, or have they been reflecting the current occupant of the White House? Barry Ritholtz of Big Picture sidles up to a Bloomberg terminal and rolls out the charts to marshal an argument about how President Bush s tenure has affected markets.

Who Will Be the Next Face of the Treasury?

3:20 p.m. | Mark Glassman

Dealbreaker

that New Jersey governor John Corzine's name is being tossed around in discussions over who will succeed Heny Paulson as Treasury Secretary. Dealbreaker reminds us that both are former balds heads of

(

).

['What do you mean we only have $699,999,999 left?']

reports Goldman Sachs (GS)

Yesterday, the site published CNBC pundit Charlie Gasparino's list of potential Obama TSs. They are:

  1. Larry Summers

  2. Tim Geithner

  3. Paul Volcker

  4. Robert Rubin

Rookie Presidents and the Markets

12:40 p.m. | Thomas E. Weber and Mark Glassman

Our colleague Beverly Goodman stopped by New York's CW11 this morning to discuss how the market might shift during the next president's first year in office. Typically, presidents' rookie seasons yield more Ted-Ginn-Jr. bumps than Adrian-Peterson spikes. If you're curious about what history suggests will happen to stocks in 2009, watch here or below:

Placing Bets on Where Tax Rates Are Headed

12:10 p.m. | Thomas E. Weber

If you ve been addicted to polls and predictions, Election Day brings some withdrawal pains. But fear not: If obsessing about the future is your thing, you can track what the wisdom of crowds has to say about where tax rates are headed even before we know who the next president will be.

[The I.R.S. wants a grand...]

The Intrade prediction market lets members place their bets on what will mark the highest U.S. income tax rates in the next few years. Econoblogger Greg Mankiw has a look at what the betting could mean.

Change Is Coming If You Pay With a $20

10:50 a.m. | Mark Glassman and Kelli B. Grant

Here's how bad the recession is. The election is being used as both a referendum on the economy and an excuse to hold sales.

[Stylish voter deterrent]

Steve Madden (SHOO), Kenneth Cole (KCP), A.C. Moore (ACMR) and Toys 'R' Us are among the chains offering substantail discounts on some or all of their merchandise in an effort to capitalize off of election hype. Of course, it's possible that some of these sales may actually deter voting ("Twenty percent off super hot pumps vs. another vote for Obama in New York... hmmm... processing...."), but can you blame these guys? It's not like the Treasury is bailing them out.

Happy voting and/or shopping.

Deals, coupons and codes:

You May Have the Right to Sap Productivity

9:40 a.m. | Kelli B. Grant

Concerned about the lines at the polls? You may be entitled to cut out of work a little early, or come in late, to beat the crowds.

State lawsDonning the appropriate candidate pin

If I Vote Twice, Can I Get a Grande?

8:45 a.m. | Mark Glassman

You were probably going to vote anyway, what with this being hands-down the most important election since the last one, but

(

) just wanted to make sure. The coffee chain is giving away

all day to anyone who tells the barrista they voted, according to the

. (Note: this does not technically mean you have to vote. It just means you have to be comfortable lying to Starbucks.)

[Venti election tampering with skim]

Starbucks (SBUX) free talls AP

This would be awesome were it not illegal. Federal laws prohibit the payment of money, goods or services in exchange for voting. What you are now smelling is the fresh scent of someone in Marketing getting fired.

Ben & Jerry's has skirted this issue by giving away free scoops to voters and non-voters alike, but only from 5 p.m. to 8 p.m.

**UPDATE: Starbucks has since expanded its giveaway to included non-voters, The WSJ reports. Apathy, thou art avenged.

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