ByDONALD LUSKIN
It's so easy to> know where the economy is going. Just ask Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke! The only problem is understanding that he means when he answers the question. He doesn't always speak plainly -- in fact, in the grand tradition of Alan Greenspan, Fed officials always do their best to speak in riddles.
So let me help you. Here's the text of the statement issues after Wednesday s FOMC meeting. I'll translate it into English for you, one sentence at a time.
FOMC: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that the economic recovery is proceeding and that the labor market is improving gradually.
ENGLISH: At least we're not in recession anymore. And I don't know about you, brother, but at least I've got a government job.
FOMC: Household spending is increasing but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit.
ENGLISH: I don't know how you guys out there do it. Somehow you keep on spending, even though you don't have a job, you're not making any money, and your credit cards are maxed.
FOMC: Business spending on equipment and software has risen significantly; however, investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls.
ENGLISH: All you guys on cube farms have been downloading lots of songs from iTunes. But build a new factory? Hire more workers? Fuggedaboutit!
FOMC: Housing starts remain at a depressed level.
ENGLISH: You mean they're not building any more McMansions outside Las Vegas?
FOMC: Financial conditions have become less supportive of economic growth on balance, largely reflecting developments abroad.
ENGLISH: Those damn Greeks. You'd think after 2,000 years they'd have figured out how to pay their bills.
FOMC: Bank lending has continued to contract in recent months.
ENGLISH: I got turned down for a loan! What's that about? I'm the guy who prints the money!
FOMC: Nonetheless, the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be moderate for a time.
ENGLISH: Don't hold your breath, but prosperity is just around the corner. Did I mention the chicken in every pot?
FOMC: Prices of energy and other commodities have declined somewhat in recent months, and underlying inflation has trended lower.
ENGLISH: Yeah, I know the prices for everything you want to buy are going up. But I still say there's no inflation.
FOMC: With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.
ENGLISH: Hey -- how can there be inflation when no one has a job? See? I told you!
FOMC: The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.
ENGLISH: I know you can't borrow any money. But if you could, the interest rate would be zero. Sweet!
FOMC: The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to promote economic recovery and price stability.
ENGLISH: I'll get back to you.
FOMC: Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Donald L. Kohn; Sandra Pianalto; Eric S. Rosengren; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Kevin M. Warsh.
ENGLISH: I know who my friends are!
FOMC: Voting against the policy action was Thomas M. Hoenig, who believed that continuing to express the expectation of exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period was no longer warranted because it could lead to a build-up of future imbalances and increase risks to longer-run macroeconomic and financial stability, while limiting the Committee s flexibility to begin raising rates modestly.
ENGLISH: Can you believe that dope? He thinks we might start some kind of bubble! Who ever heard of the Fed causing a bubble!?
See how simple it is once you know how to read the Fed code?
Actually, Bernanke and his colleagues are coming around pretty much to what I've been telling you for many months. The recession is over, but we are by no means in a new expansion.
We're just kind of nowhere. And if the economy is going nowhere, then stocks are likely to go nowhere, too.
The good news in that is that if stocks go nowhere, they can't go down much.
The bad news is that if stocks go nowhere, they can't go up much.
So at this point the art of the trading game is just playing the trading range. After an 80% rally from the March 2009 lows, we obviously hit the top of the range. How far do stocks have to correct before we find the bottom?
I sure don t think we're going all the way back to where we were in March 2009. Not even close. This is just a slow recovery, not a double dip recession.
I think stocks are getting cheap. When the Gulf oil spill fiasco gets taken care of, and when the Europeans make it obvious they aren't going to let Greece go bankrupt, some confidence will be restored and we'll move back up the trading range. We may have not put in the lows in this correction quite yet, but we're close.
But if you successfully call the bottom, don't get carried away. Get ready right away to call the next top. It won't be far away. Even the Fed can see, in its own peculiar lingo, that the economy is in a muddle. So are stocks.



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