Happy birthday, recovery! (better luck next year.) Or so the sentiment might read if Hallmark were to mark the occasion.

Yes, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of U.S. economic cycles, the expansion turns two years old this June. Since that first welcome turning point in 2009, the gross domestic product has inched up every month, banks have begun to lend again, layoffs have subsided, corporate profits have broken records, and companies have (at least) started talking about hiring anew. Even the long-moribund manufacturing sector is experiencing its strongest growth spurt in seven years. The combined value of goods and services produced in the U.S., in fact, is now an eye-popping $13 trillion -- higher than it was in the go-go days before the Great Recession. So why does the celebration feel so muted?

Well, it's those other numbers -- the ones that, to many investors and consumers, feel more real (and closer to home) than, say, GDP or inventory levels. Starting, of course, with the most obvious: jobs. For all the talk of a resurgence in hiring, the unemployment rate has barely budged during the expansion, remaining stubbornly close to 9 percent. More than 13 million people are still without work, and many more have stopped looking altogether. And then there is the matter of home prices, a metric that has come to reflect many Americans' sense of personal net worth and one that is no higher today than it was in December 2003.

No wonder many people are skeptical that a true recovery is under way. Indeed, for all the fearsome specters that have crammed the news cycle of late -- Wars! Disasters! Nuclear meltdowns! -- it is the prospect of yet another economic stall that worries Americans most. No less than 68 percent of affluent clients surveyed by Fidelity say that a "weakening economy" is their biggest fear right now. And to be frank, such skittishness is not without cause. Strategas economist Don Rissmiller points out that any number of weighty issues might break the fledgling recovery's back: a sudden slowing of China's economic engine, the $1.5 trillion budget deficit here at home, worsening fiscal woes in Europe, rising oil and other commodity prices -- take your pick. For Quincy Krosby, a market strategist at Prudential Financial, it's not a question of whether higher commodity prices will have an economic impact, but rather, how much the fragile recovery will be affected.

More birthday cake, anyone?

Strangely enough, however, the economy's current split personality might offer some good news for investors -- or at least for those prepared for both the up- and downsides. While the public's constantly vacillating sentiment does add another variable to an already complicated market calculus, many savvy money managers say there are ways to profit from it.

The most important advice overall, say pros across the investing spectrum, is to spread the wealth. In a stunted economic expansion, a given sector of stocks may zoom from hot to not at twice the speed. To counter this anticipated market fickleness, in fact, a number of stock managers are loading up on shares of bigger, stronger companies and broadening their bets across more sectors than they ordinarily would. Prudential's Krosby, for example, is advising clients to shift a greater portion of their portfolios to stocks that have been ignored through the market's rebound, namely those of big U.S. firms with businesses likely to withstand volatility and with rock-solid balance sheets to boot. Others are seeking diversification further away. Mike Spinks, multi-asset fund manager for London-based Schroders, is turning to commodities as "the clearest hedge for everything that is being thrown at the market."

Fixed-income veterans, likewise, are covering their bases. Matt Eagan, who comanages the Loomis Sayles Absolute Return Strategies fund, for instance, is hedging against the possibility of higher interest rates by betting against Treasurys, in addition to using futures contracts. Such alternative strategies are now very much in vogue it would seem: Several advisers are shifting a higher portion of client money to investments in hedge-like funds, currencies and options known as "covered calls," which can generate income and offer some cushion against a decline.

Barry James is being even more cautious. The veteran manager of the $987 million James Balanced: Golden Rainbow fund is taking his cues directly from corporate executive suites and boardrooms -- that is, he's looking at what insiders seem to think of their own stocks. While companies were buying back shares of their deflated issues in March 2009, he says, 60 percent of S&P 500 firms today are selling shares through offerings. Plus, three times as many insiders are cashing in stock as are buying it. "We call that smart money, and they are selling. So what does that tell us?" says James, who has cut the percentage of stocks in his fund to 40 percent, down from their typical share of 50 or 60 percent.

To be sure, the economy can keep chugging along at its current pace for years -- or pop into gear and accelerate even faster. "To keep 3 percent growth going, I don't think it takes all that much, and we have certain new engines kicking in," says Jason Pride, director of investment strategy at Glenmede, which oversees $20 billion. He, for one, sees a good sign in the recent uptick in employment.

And should those numbers improve even more, it may be tempting to forgo the caution and dive into the market full bore. But then, say many seasoned investors today, why take an unnecessary chance? The key right now, concludes Jack Ablin, chief investment officer for Harris Private Bank, is "risk management." That, he says, "is going to be the most vital tool that investors should have at their disposal over the next three to four years." Indeed.