It s a bit of a head-scratcher: Investors who want to position their portfolios for an economic recovery must first take a position on if there is, indeed, an economic recovery. Financial markets typically move six to nine months ahead of the overall economy, so the nearly 62% run in the Standard & Poor s 500 index since its March bottom would suggest that investors believe the economy has already healed. Yet the pros hardly agree whether we re seeing signs of sustainable economic growth, or whether the green shoots will wither once the government fertilizer goes away.

This muddies the picture for individual investors. So-called cyclical stocks -- those whose fortunes usually rise and fall along with the economy -- usually lead the market out of a recession. True to form, some cyclical sectors have outperformed this year: Technology stocks are up 52% year to date, compared with 21% for the S&P 500 as a whole; consumer discretionary stocks are up 33% and materials stocks are up 39%. But some investors are steering clear. This is not a normal recovery, says Tim Knepp, chief investment officer for Genworth Financial Asset Management. Knepp says the government stimulus and high employment are two factors that make this recovery unusual. While Knepp says he d typically favor cyclical stocks coming out of a recession, these days the firm recommends companies in defensive industries such as health care and consumer staples.

Brian Belski, chief investment strategist for Oppenheimer & Co., takes a more bullish view of the economy. Cast aside the doubts, this recovery is for real, he wrote in a research note this week. He noted the 3.5% third-quarter GDP growth and said that while government programs like cash for clunkers contributed to that number, their effect has been exaggerated. Belski notes that the post-recession market playbook favors cyclicals, but recommends sticking to cyclical sectors positioned for growth alongside the economic recovery, such as technology and industrials. By contrast, investors might consider avoiding consumer discretionary stocks since consumer demand for, say, designer clothing, remains weak.

Alan B. Lancz, president of an eponymous financial advisory firm in Toledo, Ohio, plans to sell his clients cyclical stocks on upcoming dips in the market. Cylicals have been red hot, he says. Fueling the rally have been investors returning to the market to chase performance. Plenty of investors, including some pros, have missed much of this year s blockbuster rally. As they jump back in, they push stocks up further. This momentum rally could continue into next year, Lancz says. After that, he says, the market will want to see more solid evidence of a recovery, and if the green shoots haven t taken root, investors could be in for a disappointment.