In Recovery, a Bump Here Is a Boom There

No doubt about it, the world economy is still in trouble. Greece s debt is dragging down the euro zone as Germans fume about a bailout. Portugal and Spain are scrambling to avoid their own budgetary catastrophes. China is enmeshed in trade- and currency-related conflict with the United States. Chile is digging out from a devastating earthquake. And the Islamic world remains hostage to Iranian nuclear ambition and Pakistani instability.

None of that shouldn't stop global investors from finding bright sides and looming opportunities on the bumpy road to recovery. Indeed, some of those opportunities are the direct result of that turbulence. One nation s small bump can be another s small boom. The trick is timing those recoveries and understanding how they relate to one another.

Fundamentally, the global economy is picking up, says Chris Verrone, a technical analyst at Strategas Research Partners, an independent economics and policy research firm in New York.

"I think the one thing everyone's missing now is that stocks continue to make new highs" world-wide, he says. "And what's interesting about that is that institutional sentiment remains pretty bearish, here and internationally people are having a hard time believing the move they are seeing."

Of course, the pickup is cyclical. Demand for commodities from emerging markets is rising, and will continue to do so even if the dollar strengthens in the short term, particularly as Europe struggles through its current financial woes.

But some say those conditions won't last. David Kotok, chairman and chief investment officer of Cumberland Advisors, an investment firm based in Sarasota and Vineland, Fla., says domestic deficit woes (and the risk aversion to another bubble) are going to keep the U.S. economy working off debt and sacrificing rapid growth for many years.

"What if we had a period where we had very slow growth and very low inflation? Bond market rates would fall, stocks would adjust to this new paradigm and over time, real estate would stabilize," Kotok says. "We would work off our debt burdens over time and we wouldn't have a depression or a catastrophe. It wouldn't feel good, but I believe that's where we are and I don't think it's so bad."

With the United States setting its own messy house in order after a self-created financial crisis, he says investors should look past the Greek debt crisis and move into European assets during this short-term dip. Our problems are worse than theirs, on balance, and this is the right time to act, he says. He's dropped his U.S. allocation in Cumberland's global multiasset-class fund to 35% from more than 50% two years ago its lowest level ever.

"When this [Greek crisis] is over, I think Europe and the euro zone emerge stronger than ever," he says. "Americans who don t diversify out of the dollar are delusional."

The dollar and our deficit are at the root of another trend among Americans that could be played to a patient investor's advantage. Robert Brusca, chief economist at FAO Economics, says because our ability to pay down our debt is limited by our current trade relationships, those relationships will have to change and so will the fortunes of some emerging markets.

"There's been a bit of a subtle backlash against countries that make their way by exporting," he says. "The U.S. recognizes it needs to get its deficit under control, and if you have Germany, China, Japan and all the emerging market countries trying to develop and grow by exporting, and we have to winnow our debt down, we can't keep buying all kinds of stuff from them. There will be some shaking out among the exporters."

To pinpoint countries with more sustainable growth, he recommends finding emerging economies that have blended exports with genuine increases in internal consumption.

"I'd draw a red line under the Asian tigers China, Japan, the exporters," Brusca says. "I think Brazil qualifies as an economy that has a good mix."

Kotok says Indonesia is another economy producing a growing middle class.

Both countries can be easily accessed though exchange-traded funds such as the Market Vectors Indonesia fund (IDX) or the SPDR S&P Emerging Asia Pacific fund (GMF), which offers broader regional exposure. Brazil funds include the MSCI Brazil Index fund (EWZ) and the Brazil Infrastructure Index fund (BRXX).

Single-country funds are volatile, and allocations should be limited, but can be rewarding, says Kotok.

He also says there's a real opportunity that stems from a recent tragedy. The Feb. 27 earthquake that shook Chile didn't wreak the devastation of the quake that ravaged Haiti on Jan. 12, but it did damage more than one million buildings. The estimated price tag is as high as $7 billion, according to a report from reinsurer Swiss Re.

Kotok says the MSCI Chile Investable Market Index fund (ECH) will rise as rebuilding gets underway. "Watch how rapidly Chile a growth-oriented economy with a sound central bank that's very market oriented starts to thrive after a terrible shock," he says. "Chile's GDP will explode from the rebuilding, which will be done forcefully and robustly."

Investors who can look past the grim headline have plenty of potentially positive options.

INVESTOR CENTER

MARKETS:
Chart
TODAY
Portfolio Chart

RESEARCH STOCKS & FUNDS

Subscriber Tool

Stock Screener

Portfolio Tracker

Track your own buys and sells

See More Tools

Answer Engine
Find Answers to Life's Challenges  

Find solutions to this and many other problems using

Answer Engine from SmartMoney. 

Copyright 2012 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved
This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit
www.djreprints.com.