A few months ago, betting on the recovery through stocks seemed like a pretty safe wager, as the major indexes made steady gains. But now, tepid trading and scant economic data are leaving market watchers and strategists split over the pace and strength of the domestic recovery.

Some of those differences are a matter of timing. Last week, the Commerce Department said retail sales climbed unexpected by 0.3% in February, but by mid-March, the economy's progress was more lamb than lion. That was reflected in lukewarm market activity around the one-year anniversary of the S&P 500 stock index s recession-era low of 666, reached last March 9. Over the last year, the index has rebounded about 72%, but some strategists say the bounce is not a signal that the economy is back on its feet -- or that a sustainable recovery is underway.

Gluskin Sheff chief economist and market strategist David Rosenberg, a perennial doubter, called the market s rebound a "flashy, low-volume rally" in a Tuesday note, adding that the cost of getting out of the crisis has been greater than expected. "There is this illusion that we are in a sustainable recovery, but instead what has happened is that the government fooled the public by printing massive amounts of money and expanded the Fed s balance sheet to levels nobody ever thought could be possible," he wrote.

Even Rosenberg s polar opposite, Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research, and a longstanding bull voice for a recovery based on improved corporate earnings, echoed that concern in a Thursday note. "Governments around the world are addicted to deficit-financed spending. Their drug dealers are Keynesian economists who believe that such spending is the only way to avoid getting into recessions, and that more of it will get an economy out of a recession faster," he wrote. "The problem is that governments are now hooked on running long-term structural deficits to finance rapidly expanding social welfare spending and to provide government workers with outrageously generous pay and benefits. The deficits are no longer just cyclical; they are forever."

Still, the Federal Reserve has started making its well-telegraphed moves to reduce its stimulus measures, and some strategists say that signals a belief in Washington that recovery is underway. "The Fed is clearly not expecting a below-trend recovery or a double dip [recession], ISI Group policy analysts Tom Gallagher and Andy Laperriere wrote March 8. They say the Fed will stop is mortgage backed securities purchases in June. On Wednesday, Gallagher and Laperriere noted that Chicago Fed President Donald Evans said he believed interest rates would stay low "for some time," at least the next three or four meetings of the Federal Reserve Open Markets Committee. In short, the Fed will deal with inflation when it's sure the economy is on solid footing.

But that could get harder the longer rates stay low, wrote Milton Ezrati, partner and senior economist and market strategist at Lord Abbett. He said the Troubled Asset Relief Program and the huge $787 billion stimulus raised government outlays by unprecedented amount. "Red ink for the year as a whole ran at $1.4 trillion, more than three times the $459 billion of the previous year and, at 10% of gross domestic product, a burden unprecedented since the Second World War," he wrote Wednesday. "Against such a backdrop, deficit concerns will almost surely multiply as the year progresses, especially on inflation, if the Federal Reserve continues to buy Treasurys directly."

So the question once again comes around to timing the recovery, and at this stage, consensus remains unlikely. Thomas Lee, U.S. equity strategist at J.P. Morgan, on Thursday advised investors to start switching to offense from defense, as sectors that will benefit from an improving labor market will prosper. Those include specialty stores, casinos, systems software, exchanges, consumer electronics, drug retail, wireless telecom services, specialty consumer services, investment banking and brokerage, railroads, trucking, coal, oil and gas.

But PNC Financial Chief Economist Stuart Hoffman said recent economic data remains "consistent with our expectations of our 'half-speed' economic recovery, with real GDP growth downshifting from the robust 5.9% in fourth-quarter 2009 near 3% in the soon-to-be-completed quarter."

With so much debate over the rate of the recovery, a bet on half-speed might just be the best hedge for now.