Neither recession nor recovery occurs overnight, and economists debating these topics don't resolve their opinions with much speed either. After a week dominated by swine flu fears, corporate earnings, Chrysler's bankruptcy and debate about the government stress tests' likely effects on wobbly banks, our pundits' views on recovery were no firmer, but neither were they weaker.

So-called green shoots lower jobless claims, increased consumer confidence, a lower-than-expected drop in first-quarter corporate profits and the 9.4% April rise of the S&P 500 index (its best showing since March 2000) are starting to add up. However, a debate still rages on about whether those are genuine positive market signals or blips that will give way to more bad news next week.

Take the naysayers. "The recovery has not begun," Morgan Keegan economist Donald Ratajczak wrote April 27, warning that the emergence of a few green blades of grass only means "the lawn is dying at a slower rate." And then there are the market watchers who are just sick of all the prognostications and the metaphors that come with them. This is getting old and tedious," ISI Group founder Ed Hyman said in an April 27 report. Unfortunately for Hyman, the clich s probably won t end any time soon, especially since it appears the swine flu outbreak probably temporarily derailed a recovery. Our experts acknowledged the seriousness of the epidemic, but pulled up short of trying to predict its ultimate impact. The extent to which it affects markets and economies can't yet be determined, wrote J.P. Morgan global economist Joseph Lupton Thursday.

However, as officials seemed to be gaining control of the virus some pundits were already trying to put it in the rear-view mirror. "In early 2003, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) briefly added to the pressures on global stock markets. In 2006, the avian flu garnered much attention and had a small measurable effect on the markets," wrote LPL Financial s chief market strategist Jeffrey Klientop. "An influenza pandemic has the potential to exact a great human and financial toll, but is it time to panic? No. It is unlikely the swine flu will have the opportunity to evolve into an easily human-communicable strain before it turns into a milder version of the flu."

What s remarkable, though, is that given all the news that came out this week the Dow Jones Industrial Average is set to record its sixth out of seven positive week. "The stock market held up remarkably well on Monday and Tuesday despite nervousness over bank stress tests, swine flu and the forced downsizing of the U.S. auto industry," wrote Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research.

However, Yardeni adds a bull market isn t in the offing yet. Both he and Thomas Lee, U.S. strategist at J.P. Morgan, said that absent fresh catastrophe, markets will remain range-bound, with Yardeni's top forecast for the S&P hitting 1000. Lee, in a Wednesday note on the business cycle, urged a bit of perspective and said that the next few weeks could shed light on how and when recovery arrives. Take a step back: Things are better than they were at Jan. 1, 2009, he said. We believe the S&P 500 should be considerably higher in the second half, with a year-end target of 1100.

He cautioned that smart investors should use history as a guide going forward. Putting this rally into a historical framework strongly points to a retest in the coming weeks, he said, because that's been part of nearly every recession's bottoming process. That means we could be headed for a "W" shaped recovery that includes another market tumble. In other words, the current rally still falls within what would be regarded as the initial move prior to a retest, he says. A rally past the first week of May would force us to reconsider this view, as it would suggest a 'V' bottom is more likely.