At the moment the panic seems to have subsided. And all it took was a word from China, the new lord and master of the financial universe. On Thursday the Chinese authorities let it be known that they intended to do nothing. Equity markets around the world thunderously celebrated.

Huh? Well, under these circumstances, the Chinese doing nothing is a wonderful thing. You see, the Chinese government holds about $600 billion in government bonds issued in Europe. That's right -- the bonds of Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain -- the so-called "PIGS" nations who have been in the throes of a credit crisis that has rattled the whole world.

It's not that these countries are intrinsically going out of business. It's just that if bond holders panic and refuse to lend them more money when their existing bonds come due and have to be replaced, they'll be forced into insolvency for lack of financing. China, the single largest holder, signaling that it has no intention to reduce or abandon its existing investments was a huge risk off the table.

Don't think the Chinese can't move the bond world. They can. They have. Why do you think in December 2008 the Fed announced it was going to buy billions in mortgage-backed securities -- and then in March 2009 upped the number to over a trillion? It's because the Chinese wanted to sell. If that Fed hadn't bought them, who would have? Not me!

Same thing for European bonds. If the Chinese had wanted to sell, who would have bought them? The European Central Bank, the equivalent of our Fed, doesn't have the statutory authority to do that. They've already bent their rules a lot in the PIGS crisis, but that would be tearing up the rule book and studding the shreds in the trash compactor.

How about European banks? Sorry. The banks of France, Germany and the Netherlands already own more than twice the PIGS debt that China owns. They aren t interested in owning more, believe me.

So with China a solid holder, and with the announcement several weeks ago that the stronger countries in Europe will bail out the weak ones, I think the crisis really has passed.

But so what?

Does that mean the fantastic bull market that took the U.S. stock market up 80% from the March 2009 lows to the April 2010 highs will just get right back into high gear and make another sensational leg up? I really doubt it.

There are plenty of people who think that's what will happen. They see the 12% drop in stocks since the high last April as just a brief and necessary correction in a great bull move.

There are also plenty of people who feel just the opposite. They think we live in a new world of continuous crisis, and if it's not Europe that pulls the rug out from under the global economy, it will just be something else. They think this has not been a correction at all, but the beginning of a new bear market.

So what's a good contrarian to do, when so many people feel so strongly about two completely opposed possibilities? Easy -- the only contrarian bet is that nothing at all will happen from here. And that's pretty much what I am expecting.

Stocks are now down a bit on a year-to-date basis -- about 1% as measured by the S&P 500. I'll bet by year-end 2010 they'll be up about 10%. That's just a little more than the average annual return over the last eighty years. That amounts to stocks doing nothing.

Why don't I think we're in a new bear market? To be clear, I think there's a very real possibility that the correction we're in could make lower lows. After an 80% run, a 12% correction is almost nothing. But I do think it's just a correction. We won't make lower lows than the March 2009 bottom, or anything even close to that.

Why? The bears are right when they say we live in a world of continuous crisis. But what they're missing is that the governments of the world are absolutely committed to solving those crises as they arise. That hasn't always been the case by any means. In the Great Depression, the United States and other governments stood by sucking their thumbs while the global economy collapsed. But who can deny that this time around every government has done everything possible, and then some, to bail out anybody, anything, every time?

So then why don't I believe that it's off the races, and after an 80% bull run we won't just have another 80% on top? It's for the same reason, but upside down. Yes, governments are throwing everything they've got to make sure everything is OK. But things keep going wrong. So it amounts to a holding action, a stand-off. The world can't collapse, but it isn't really ready to grow, either.

Look at the economic numbers here. After billions upon billions in stimulus, and a year-and-a-half of zero interest rates, gross domestic product growth should be shooting to the moon. But the U.S. economy only grew 3% in the first quarter, according to Commerce Department on Thursday morning. And that was a downward revision from what they said a month ago, when they thought it was 3.2%. That wasn't much better, but at least it was better.

But that 3% took everyone by surprise. The consensus among analysts would be that GDP would be revised higher. Yet it was revised lower. We're still in denial about how weak the economy actually is.

What this all boils down to is that it's a lousy time to be a long-term investor. This is when you want to be more of a trader. You want to buy every big dip, because you know that some new bailout or stimulus will come along and save the world. But then you also want to sell every big rally because you know that we're not really seeing sustainable growth, and it's just a matter of time before the next crisis.

Maybe the only smart way to play this is by buying the stocks of online brokers. The more investors realize that they had better stop investing and start trading, the more commission dollars those guys are going to rake in.