Could a global recovery be underway? After four days of solid stock gains, a report indicating that home sales are improving and data showing increased productivity abroad, our pundits think the prospects are fairly strong.

"The green shoots which began to sprout in early spring are turning into real growth," the global economic team at Societe Generale wrote in a Friday report. "Even the IMF, which was extremely pessimistic on the global outlook just months ago, declared this past week that the global recession has likely ended and a recovery is now underway."

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke helped stoke the good feelings during a speech Friday. "[E]conomic activity appears to be leveling out in the United States and abroad," he said, referring to positive indicators from China and other economies. France and Germany reported a surprisingly strong August euro-zone composite purchasing managers' index reading. Additionally, the Cash for Clunkers stimulus program has seen such an overwhelming response, that its already run through its $3 billion in available funds (the program ends late Monday).

While Bernanke may be optimistic that the global economy is emerging from a recession, he warned that the recovery would take place slowly. For investors, that could mean the stock market will continue to remain volatile, growing in fits and starts with few correlations between what's happening in the economy and stock valuations.

"The stock market rebound is already reflecting typical recovery. The average stock market appreciation one year after recession troughs, looking back to 1929, is roughly 40%, with the current recovery off of the March lows already well ahead of that performance in half the time," Citigroup chief U.S. equity strategist, wrote Monday. "Thus, investors may need to be more circumspect as share prices climb."

Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research, believes that U.S. economy is about to get a big boost from the Cash for Clunkers program, which cut bloated auto inventories by 24% from 11 months ago and prompted many manufacturers to ramp up production, bringing laid-off workers back to the assembly lines. Similar programs in Europe and Asia have also helped the economies there.

"Governments provide stimulus to get us out of recessions," he wrote Wednesday. "Inventory accumulation follows inventory liquidation. Stock prices rally anticipating rebounding economic activity and earnings. The resulting positive wealth effect revives consumer confidence and spending. We don t think it is going to be much different this time."

LPL Financial chief market strategist Jeffery Kleintop says that investors must prepare for a recovery that will be herky-jerky. He expects below average, but positive, economic growth in the second half of 2009 and into 2010, followed by "a powerful 20-25% year-over-year rebound in profits beginning in the fourth quarter."

"Unfortunately, investors often misunderstand the relationship between GDP and the stock market," he wrote on Aug. 17. "There is no statistical relationship between the performance of stocks and GDP growth in a quarter. The correlation or degree to which two things move together between GDP and the S&P 500 index is zero."

Indeed, the recovery is expected to be a slow and sometimes volatile process. For investors, that means either keeping a close eye on stock valuations to determine whether they are outpacing the recovery, or exhibiting a great deal of patience.