The Suddenly Brighter Employment Picture

After months of a rising unemployment rate, the November jobs report saw the unemployment level decline to 10% from 10.2%. The U.S. dollar, which has been falling most of the year, promptly reversed course and has rallied versus nearly all other major currencies. So what do trends in U.S. employment really mean for the dollar and stocks? These brokers offer opposing views.

Who's Talking: David Joy, Chief Market Strategist, RiverSource Investments for Ameriprise Financial

The Gist: Last week s positive jobs report is a sign that investors should think twice about risky dollar strategies.

November s employment report came as a big surprise to investors who and have bought gold or investments abroad believing that the U.S. dollar would continue its decline. The better-than-expected results the economy lost only 11,000 jobs in November, far below the expected 120,000 caused an immediate reassessment of the calculus behind the dollar carry trade, says Joy. (The dollar carry trade refers to investors borrowing U.S. dollars to invest in higher-interest-yielding investments). The U.S. Dollar Index rose 1.6% last Friday, responding to the jobs report, a sign of investor worries that a stronger-than-expected economy in the U.S. would prompt the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates sooner rather than later. Gold, meanwhile, fell 4%.

So what does this all mean? Many investors have benefitted from the dollar s recent weakness by piling onto stocks, gold and other commodities which tend to do well when the dollar is down. Now those investors are wondering whether Friday s events will tip this trend in the other direction, says Joy. He says only time will tell if the trend will continue but that a certain unease has replaced the complacency behind the assumption that the dollar remains in a downtrend and the notion that riskier assets financed in dollars remain a good bet. Meanwhile, the S&P 500, which had been improving with the dollar s decline, still climbed 0.5% even with the dollar rallied.

Joy says the jobs news is ultimately good news for investors, since it signals that the economy is moving toward a more sustainable recovery. Market dynamics may change as investors get a better sense for what the Fed may do in the future. Ultimately, Joy says an interest rate hike would be a welcome development since it would be a response to stronger economic growth. But it would also mean what has been working for investors over the past several months may not work as well in the future.

Who's Talking: Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity s Director of Investment Research and co-manager of Fidelity Dynamic Strategies Fund

The Gist: With the economy on the mend and low interest rates expected to continue, risky investments are still a good bet.

At this point, so many workers have been laid off that there s really only one direction to go up, says Timmer. Sure, it s unclear whether the consumer can afford to sustain the economic recovery, but that s not a question that needs to be addressed immediately, he says. The Federal Reserve which is dually mandated to contain inflation and keep unemployment low -- is currently focused on unemployment, not inflation, says Timmer. And that means the Fed will continue to keep interest rates low for a while in the hopes of stoking job growth. It also means riskier assets such as stocks, corporate bonds, and commodities will continue to do well and that the dollar will keep declining in value.

Timmer remains bullish on risky assets, especially emerging markets and commodities. But he is still worried about what the Fed may do, since withdrawing stimulus too soon might lead to a deflationary relapse, while withdrawing stimulus too slowly or too late could lead to inflation. Finally, he says investors should choose their fixed-income investments wisely, opting for TIPS and high-yield corporate bonds over Treasurys. The fact that the government has to refinance $2 trillion in short-term debt next year, along with $1.5 trillion in new debt is a recipe for high interest rates, says Timmer, which he has no interest in.

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