BySARAH MORGAN
So much for> timing.
After a year of volatile decision-making in the stock market, the Nobel committee awarded its prize in economics to two American economists who studied choices in non-market institutions. Oliver Williamson, a professor of business, economics and law at the University of California, Berkeley, was selected for his work in economic choices within large corporations, and Elinor Ostrom, a political science professor at Indiana University, was picked for her study of choices made about common property.
The Nobel committee said each winner made contributions to the understanding of economic governance and how to determine what kinds of institutions work most efficiently in particular situations. Williamson s work on large firms studied why such companies grow to be as big as they do and focused on explaining the advantages and drawbacks of consolidation. He found that vertically-integrated corporations can be more efficient in situations where top-down authority can resolve conflicts more quickly than negotiations in a marketplace, but that authority can also be abused.
Ostrom s work has evaluated different ways of regulating the use of common property or natural resources. She found that collective ownership works better than classical theories of self-interest would suggest. In some cases, collective self-policing by a group of local people preserves resources better than privatization or government regulation, according to her research.
In selecting these economists, the Nobel committee has taken a long-term view, rather than reacting to the crisis over the past year, says Mark Gertler, a professor of economics at New York University. That s what the prize should be about, and not the heat of the moment, Gertler says.
The Nobel committee came under fire last week after the Peace Prize was awarded to President Obama. Critics said the committee s decision appeared more forward-looking and had not been validated by the president s accomplishments. The committee stood by its choice. (The economics prize is awarded by a separate body.)
Economists say the economics prize winners work has been influential but is also relevant to the issues of the day. Williamson s study of internal governance is relevant to understanding what went wrong within financial firms, says Roger Myerson, an economics professor at the University of Chicago.
And finding dependable information on the reliability of financial products like mortgage-backed securities is a common pool problem, like the problems Ostrom s work has examined, Myerson says.
Ostrom is the first woman to win the prize, officially called the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel. That s not the most important thing about Elinor Ostrom s work, but it s a very important thing for our profession, Myerson says.
Of course, there are many more economists whose work is both influential in the field and relevant to today s real-world problems. There are more people who are waiting in line to receive the Nobel Prize than there are prizes to give out, says David Pendlebury, citation analyst for Thomson Reuters science division, who every year helps to develop a list of possible Nobel candidates.
Here are some other important economists who could be on the short list for future awards:
Eugene Fama, professor of finance at the University of Chicago s Booth School of Business
Fama s work is strongly associated with the efficient market hypothesis. That means he s well-respected in an area of economics that might have been an awkward pick in a year in which global markets appeared far from efficient. Still, Fama has been considered a Nobel contender for years and was given two-to-one odds of winning this year by the British odds makers Ladbrokes. He s won prizes for research in finance from Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley. He s also the director of research for the investment firm Dimensional Fund Advisors.
Ernst Fehr, director of the Institute for Empirical Research in Economics at the University of Zurich
Most of Fehr s published work deals with neuroeconomics (an interdisciplinary field that examines how the brain makes monetary decisions) and issues of trust, fairness, and reciprocity. Fehr was tied for third place in Ladbrokes ranking of potential Nobel winners, and he was also one of Thomson Reuters Citation Laureates, which means his work has been widely referenced by other economists. Last year, he won the Marcel Benoist Prize for outstanding achievement in the sciences, and he s also won the Cogito Prize for his work on altruism.
Matthew Rabin, professor of economics at the University of California Berkeley
Rabin is a behavioral economist whose published work examines issues like risk-taking, procrastination, incentives and sin taxes particularly salient topics these days. He was picked by Thomson Reuters as a possible contender. At 46, he s younger than other scholars on this list. He won the John Von Neumann Award from a college in Budapest in 2006. He s a co-editor of a book on behavioral economics.
William Nordhaus, professor of economics at Yale University
If the Nobel Committee wants to make a forward-looking pick in upcoming years, they could choose Nordhaus, whose work has focused on the economic impact of climate change and the constraints that natural resources place on economic growth. Nordhaus has been an advisor to the Brookings Panel on Economic Activity, a Member of the President s Council of Economic Advisors, and a member of the Congressional Budget Office Panel of Economic Experts. He also published a study in 2002 projecting that the war in Iraq could cost as much as $2 trillion. (Through 2008, the direct cost of the war had reached $607 billion, according to the Congressional Joint Economic Committee.)
Martin Weitzman, professor of economics at Harvard University
Weitzman also focuses on the economics of climate change, including green accounting and comparing different means of controlling pollution. He s been selected as a fellow of the Econometric Society and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. He s also been a consultant for the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, among other institutions.
John Taylor, professor of economics at Stanford University
Taylor s expertise is in macroeconomics and monetary policy. He s best known for developing what s called the Taylor rule that describes how central banks should set interest rates to stimulate growth and hold down inflation. Taylor has been a member of the President s Council of Economic Advisors, the Congressional Budget Office s Panel of Economic Advisors and the California Governor s Council of Economic Advisors. He served as Under Secretary of Treasury for International Affairs during the Bush administration.



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