"The United States has been downgraded, and this is how bad it is: Even Greece won't talk to us," joked Jay Leno last month. Indeed, Greece, like the other big European entitlement states, teeters on bankruptcy. European Union and International Monetary Fund leaders met over the weekend to try to stave off a situation in which the country would run out of money in less than a month.

Given that environment, allocating money to a Greek stock now seems crazy, not unlike buying a Latin American fund in 1998 or an internet stock in 2002 or a gold stock in 2004. But given that trading is often about doing what's difficult, I'm specifically intrigued by sectors chided by the public and avoided by the herd.

Roughly 20% of the world's shipping fleet is owned by Greek firms, making it an even more unlikely investment opportunity given the world's still moribund economy and bear market in shipping stocks. U.S.-listed shipping stocks are a virtual backwater, with a small number of billion-dollar companies among a long list of highly distressed and indebted microcaps, many headquartered in Greece.

 

Stocks Sink on Greece Worries

2:32

Stocks fell sharply Monday, following the largest weekly gain for blue-chip stocks in more than two months, as investors fretted that Greece's debt crisis is coming to a head. Paul Vigna has details on Lunch Break

Yet early indications suggest that could be changing. The Baltic Dry Index, an index of shipping rates, hit a one-year high last week before surrendering some gains on Friday. That's directly benefited companies like Baltic Trading (BALT), which deals in the spot market, and Kirby Corp (KEX) ., the largest domestically listed shipping firm and whose shares are up nearly 50% over the past year.

Both the price action and my existing position have prompted my increased interest. Because markets tend to move in trends, strength in one initial names or indicator can be a harbinger of a bigger move. While still largely mired in a bear market, the sector has improved, and the fact I have existing, opening winning trades is reason enough to expand my position. Most investors end up taking their gains exactly when they should be expanding them: In blackjack parlance, "double down" when markets move your way.

Among the companies actually headquartered in Greece, there are two high-risk, lotto-ticket long shots which, like Baltic Trading, tend to follow the recently resurgent Baltic Dry Index. One is Excel Maritime Carriers, Ltd. (EXM), an Athens-based, highly-distressed, small-cap shipping stock which, despite having its credit rating cut by Moody's and its shares downgraded by Deutsche Bank (DB), has actually jumped nearly 35% over just the past few weeks.

The other, even more speculative play would be Navios Maritime Acquisition Corp. (NNA), an owner/operator of 13-vesslees and a subsidiary of Navios Maritime Shipping (NM) . Headquartered in Piraeus, Greece, the $135 million market-cap company boasts a 6% yield but trades just pennies above its 52-week low of $3.00.

Although not headquartered in Greece, another speculative and leveraged play is Eagle Bulk Shipping (egle), a highly distressed global shipper with a fleet of 44 ships and a billion dollars in debt. With a high concentration of ships leased in the volatile spot market, the company is also closely linked with the BDI.

Jonathan Hoenig is managing member at Capitalist Pig Hedge Fund LLC. At the time of writing, Hoenig's fund may have owned shares of companies mentioned in this article.