3 Simple-Food Stocks With Caviar Prices

Pantry shares satisfy in a shaky economy, but not when they cost this much.

[smcaviar] Getty Images

Food stocks make sense right now. U.S. unemployment is up, house prices are down, European debt looks shaky and growth has slowed a bit in China and Brazil. When the economy looks shaky, food-makers can be counted on to deliver stable sales.

What's more, ingredient prices surged in recent months but are now pulling back. That means food companies that raised prices should now reap expanding profit margins.

But price matters, as any grocery shopper will tell you. Food stocks are worth a little more than the average stock to account for their dependability but not much more because they're slow growers. The median stock among small and midsize U.S. companies sells for 15.6 times projected profits for its current fiscal year. The three food names below, all small to midsize firms, sell for 22 to 55 times earnings. They're all excellent performers whose shares this column has recommended in the past, but they now nonetheless seem like pricey fare.

Perhaps the lofty valuations mean that investors are scrambling for safety. Ironically, high-price stocks are anything but safe if the market tumbles.

Snack That's Priced Like a Meal

22 times earnings

Snyder's Lance (LNCE) sells Snyder's pretzels, Cape Cod chips, Archway cookies and Lance crackers, among other truck stop treats. A merger between Snyder's and Lance last December should save distribution costs, because Lance will consolidate its 1,100 company-owned routes into deals with Snyder's 1,900 independent distributors. The larger company will also be able to spend marketing dollars more efficiently; whether it can improve upon painting "I got Lance in my pants" on the side of trucks remains to be seen. Investment bank Gabelli & Company recommends a purchase of the stock and foresees earnings expanding to $2 a share by 2015 from $1.09 last year. This year's forecast, however, calls for earnings to dip to 95 cents a share. Based on recent sales, a more reliable measure than distant earnings, Snyder's Lance trades at a 19% premium to other packaged foods companies.

Just Plain Nuts

28 times earnings

Diamond Foods (DMND) makes, in order or rising excitement for investors, Diamond-brand culinary nuts, Emerald snacking nuts, Pop Secret popcorn and Kettle potato chips. In April, the company agreed to acquire Pringles from Procter & Gamble (PG) . If we're nitpicking, Pringles acquired it after being spun off from P&G in what's known as a Reverse Morris Trust, the tax-avoiding details of which are scintillating enough to make a corporate accountant's glasses fog. Pringles should vastly increase the company's ability to sell more snacks overseas, and Kettle sales are growing so quickly that Diamond is doubling production. Jefferies recently launched coverage of the stock with a buy recommendation based on the Pringles takeover and Kettles expansion, which it sees as transformative. On Kettles I agree wholeheartedly. I ate two small bags just this week--and by "two" I mean four. But the stock is nearly twice as expensive as the broad market and chips are as competitive as snack categories get.

Over-Caffeinated

54 times earnings

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) is in a sweet spot, and its coffee isn't nearly the main reason. It owns Keurig, a maker of single-cup brewers for homes and offices, as well as the K-cup system for distributing the coffee. Corporations, having cut staff in recent years to save costs, remain keen to push coffee on remaining workers to boost productivity. Sales for Green Mountain have grown by double-digit percentages for 29 consecutive quarters. Shares soared in March when Green Mountain announced a deal with Starbucks (SBUX) . The coffee chain, in an effort to boost sales without opening more shops, will sell its beans elsewhere in K-cups. Green Mountain, meanwhile, will be able to sell Keurig machines through Starbucks locations. It's a clear win for both companies and teeth-whitening firms, and Green Mountain has plenty more growth in store, but it's priced like a social networking stock on its first day of trading, not a Vermont roaster that's been in business since Reagan took office. I'd wait for it to cool off.

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