3 Stocks Beating Sales and Earnings Forecasts

For U.S. corporations, the new way to grow is to shrink.

Consider the sales environment. Consumers have stashed away at least 5% of their after-tax income for 19 consecutive months. That's normal by historic standards, but not compared with the decade through 2008, when the savings rate averaged less than 3% and at times dipped below 1%.

Faced with such a drying-up of demand, companies have responded by shrinking production and cutting more than seven million jobs since 2007. As a result, they're looking prosperous. Per-share profits for large U.S. companies are forecast to approach record levels this year and top them next year.

How will companies grow their profits when cost-cutting opportunities dry up? Expect a merger wave. When one lean company buys another, the result is job overlap, layoffs and a nudging higher of profit margins.

The result of all this is leaping profitability but limp sales. Among S&P 500 companies, more than three-quarters beat earnings forecasts in their most recent quarterly report. Remarkably, 174 of them did so by at least 10%. However, only a dozen companies accomplished the same feat with their sales. Below are three companies that beat Wall Street estimates by double-digit percentages on sales and earnings. That there are so few of them bodes poorly for the broad market, perhaps, but long-term studies suggest that such double-surprisers tend to produce handsome stock returns.

Cummins

Engine-maker Cummins (CMI) reported on July 27 that its second-quarter sales increased 32% to $3.2 billion. Wall Street was looking for just $2.8 billion. Management raised its sales guidance for the full year by $1 billion to $13 billion. The company is cashing in on strong orders from fast-growing markets like Brazil, India and China, and from a surge in equipment spending among miners. Shares sell for 15 times this year's earnings forecast of $4.87 a share, which seems reasonable but not cheap. The company's earnings, however, are expected to surge past $6 a share next year. If that forecast holds, the stock price could well head higher. Either way, Cummins can afford to boost its dividend more than it did last month. Its new dividend of $1.05 a year, paid quarterly, makes for a yield of about 1.3%.

Freeport McMoRan Copper and Gold

Freeport McMoRan Copper and Gold (FCX) depends far more on the first metal in its name than the second. Copper is expected to make up more than three-quarters of next year's sales, versus 12% for gold. Prices for both metals are up nicely from a year ago, so it's not surprising that Freeport's sales of them last quarter topped management's earlier guidance by about 10%. Shares sell for less than nine times this year's earnings forecast of $7.54, a sign that investors worry commodity prices could fall. Even assuming they will, shares might be a good deal. Canaccord Genuity assumes for forecasting purposes that copper prices will fall 4% by 2012 and gold will drop 9%. The broker reckons Freeport will nonetheless earn more than $7 a share in 2012.

Teradyne

Teradyne (TER) makes automated test equipment, mostly for semiconductor manufacturers. Last quarter, the company reported its highest earnings in a decade. There are a few reasons. First, spending on personal electronics, especially smartphones, has been relatively strong this year. Second, the increasing complexity of such devices means manufacturers must cram more circuits into a given amount of space, increasing the need for careful testing. Third, management at Teradyne says the company is gaining share. Financial results, although strong at the moment, are volatile. Last year Teradyne lost money. This year it's expected to earn $2.45 a share. That figure puts the stock at less than four times earnings, making it one of the cheapest in the S&P 500 index relative to earnings forecasts.

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