ByJACK HOUGH
The U.S. government is> working on a national plan to fix the nation's "broadband gap." That's the term for our supposed shortage of high-speed Internet service. If you weren't aware we had such a thing, that makes two of us. But a flood of federal spending is coming anyway, so shares of well-positioned fiber-optic companies could pay off nicely.
In the U.S., 27 out of 100 inhabitants have broadband service, up from four in 2001, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. To me, that's decent progress made with a minimum of government spending. But to the fiber-frantic, what matters more is that 14 countries today top America on broadband penetration rates, and that 18 advertise faster speeds. Never mind that most of these countries are tiny relative to America and have populations concentrated in cities, conditions that naturally support high broadband penetration and fast data speeds. Or that connections in even rural America are already fast enough for necessary functions like job searches and school work. Or that a country with an obese population and a $1 trillion budget shortfall probably shouldn't put smoother YouTube clips, faster multiplayer video gaming and uninterrupted Facebook access at the top of its priority list.
The spending is coming. More than $7 billion in broadband stimulus spending has already been approved, and award recipients should be named in the first quarter of next year, around when the Federal Communications Commission unveils the country's new plan for closing the broadband gap. The spending should be compressed into an 18-month span, wrote Daniel Kim of Paradigm Research, a Toronto investment bank, in a Monday note to clients. That should create a threefold to fourfold increase in fiber-optic spending, Kim wrote, especially because companies may be delaying spending now to qualify for government money once it's released.
Kim recommends two small-company stocks that could benefit. Enablence Technologies, traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the ticker ENA, already counts 300 of America's roughly 1,000 rural telecom companies as customers. According to a July study by Telecom Pragmatics, an industry research group, companies with rural telecom exposure should be among big winners of government cash because reaching rural inhabitants looks to be a central goal of the new FCC plan. Enablence enjoys fast sales growth at the moment, although it's not expected to turn a profit until its fiscal year ending April 2011.
EXFO Electro Optical Engineering, based in Quebec, reported a loss on giant asset write-downs in its fiscal year ended Aug. 31, but is expected to return to profitability this year. Kim writes that EXFO should profit from the sudden surge in the need for fiber "backhaul" for cell towers. That should help satisfy the fast-growing data thirst of smartphone users.
George Notter, an analyst with Jeffries & Company, recommends shares of Eden Prairie, Minn.-based ADC Telecommunications as a potential broadband stimulus beneficiary. The company counts AT&T and Verizon as key customers, together contributing more than 30% of sales. Management says it also collects a "mid-single-digits" percentage of sales from independent telecom accounts, and could see plenty more business from these customers under the government's rural push. ADC is profitable now, with earnings per share expected to increase 33% in its current fiscal year and 75% in its next one.



- LinkedIn
- Fark
- del.icio.us
- Reddit
X