3 Stocks Poised for Dividend Growth

Large-company stocks pay as much current income today as safe bonds. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which tracks shares of 30 household names like McDonald's (MCD) and Caterpillar (CAT), has a dividend yield of 2.8%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yields just under 2.7%. A typical five-year bond issued by a company of good-not-great creditworthiness yields about 2.8%.

Many investors have taken this unusual condition to mean that bonds are overpriced, or that stocks are a good deal, or both. In recent weeks in this space, I've listed plenty of shares with safe-looking yields of 3% and higher. However, stock buyers shouldn't necessarily snub companies with modest yields.

Unlike most bond payments, dividends can and usually do increase over time as companies increase their profit. Rising dividend payments bring a double benefit: more income right away, and the possibility of a higher stock price over time, as investors gradually pay up for the extra income.

The three companies below pay only 1% to 2% right now, but three signs suggest increases are likely. First, these companies lag industry peers in the percentage of profits they pay out as dividends. Second, their profits are on the rise. Third and perhaps most telling, they've increased payments in recent years.

Deere & Company

Dividend yield: 1.8%

U.S. farmers will likely make good money in coming years, as the world's population booms and demand for grains rises, analysts say. That should spur purchases of agricultural machines, to the benefit of companies like Deere (DE).

Beginning in January, the diesel engines powering tractors and combines will have to meet the Environmental Protection Agency's so-called Interim Tier IV requirements the fourth of five smog-cutting steps to be rolled out from 1996 to 2014. Interim Tier IV rules are designed to bring a 90% reduction in particulate matter from the level set by Tier 3 and cut nitrogen oxide levels in half. (By 2014, the air emitted by tractor engines should be almost as clean as the air taken in.) The upshot for tractor makers is that the new requirements look likely to keep purchases and pricing strong. Deere has far exceeded Wall Street's profit forecasts in recent quarters and is expected to earn $4.90 a share in its fiscal year ending October 2011. That puts its shares at a reasonable 13 times foreword earnings and its dividend payment at a skimpy 24% of earnings.

Texas Instruments

Dividend yield: 2%

Texas Instruments (TXN) sells processors and other innards for cellphones, computer equipment and other electronic devices. The company s focus over the past six quarters has been on bolstering margins. TI recently turned 32 cents of each sales dollar into operating profit, a figure that even a margin leader like Apple (AAPL) would be proud of. Now, management is expanding production capacity in an effort to take market share. A sudden pick-up in orders has left manufacturing capacity tight, and customers are shifting their business to companies that are best able to deliver products on time. Wall Street expects sales for Texas Instruments to climb 33% this year and earnings per share to more than double. The stock's dividend yield of 2% is far from the smallest offered by large technology companies, but it could be much larger. The payment makes up just 19% of this year's earnings forecast.

Target

Dividend yield: 1.9%

Wal-Mart's (WMT) push into food helped boost sales during a period of weak consumer spending. Target (TGT) is currently adding food to its shelves, and sales for the category have risen by double-digit percentages of late. Companywide sales are forecast to increase 4% this year and next. That's expected to be enough to drive earnings per share growth of 17% this year and 13% next year, resulting in earnings of $4.39 a share in the company's fiscal year ending January 2012. Shares sell for less than 12 times that figure. The dividend payment is only a dollar a share per year.

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