ByJACK HOUGH
America is getting augmented> health care for Christmas, it seems. But of course, whether the changes count as reform is a matter of opinion.
Before dawn Monday, all 58 Senate Democrats and both Independents banded together in a procedural vote that suggested a health-care bill will pass the Senate as soon as Tuesday. If it can be reconciled with a House version, the measure might be made law soon after.
All 40 Senate Republicans opposed the bill.
Who will benefit from the proposed changes? Fittingly for such a party-lines bill, commentators show bitter disagreement. Henry Aaron, a senior fellow with the Brookings Institute, a think tank that identifies itself as independent, wrote last week that the measure will simplify health care administration, support treatment studies, fund preventative care and promote team-oriented care to reduce costs and improve quality. Meanwhile, Michael Cannon, director of health policy studies for the Cato Institute, a think tank that calls itself libertarian, wrote that the bill is something else altogether: a massive $450 billion bailout for private insurance companies that will drive health insurance premiums and taxes higher while reducing quality, all for the benefit of a small cadre of Democrats with a preternatural need to control other people s health care.
The stock market s collective view seems to be that health-care providers will indeed profit, or at least, that they will suffer less than originally believed. Since the end of October, the broad U.S. stock market has gained 8%, judging by the S&P 500 index. Exchange-traded funds that track segments of the health-care sector have done better. The iShares Dow Jones U.S. Medical Devices Index Fund (IHI)
Insurer shares, in particular, are zooming. There are three reasons. First, stripped from the Senate bill is the so-called public option a government health plan that threatened to undersell private insurers. Second, a proposed $6.7 billion industry tax is now likely to be phased in only gradually beginning in 2011, which should give health plans enough time to raise prices accordingly. Third, individuals will be required to purchase insurance a fine deal for insurance sellers although critics say the penalties for noncompliance are weak, suggesting many individuals will prefer to remain uninsured.
It s not all good news for insurers. The Senate bill would impose a medical loss ratio of 80% to 85%, depending on the market segment, meaning insurers would have to spend 80 to 85 cents of each dollar they collect from plan members to provide health care. Carl McDonald, a health care analyst with Oppenheimer & Co., an investment bank, wrote in a note to clients Monday that the number was workable for insurers, especially if they can label certain items that count as corporate expenses for accounting purposes as health care for purposes of meeting the spending minimum.
Below are three health-care companies whose shares are soaring and still seem cheap, assuming that something resembling the Senate bill becomes law.
Aetna
Stock gain since end of october: 31%
Hartford, Conn.-based Aetna (AET)
Cigna
Stock gain since end of october: 29%
Based in Philadelphia, Cigna (CI)
WellPoint
Stock gain since end of october: 28%
Indianapolis-based WellPoint (WLP)



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