To investors, a> stock's "yield" generally means its dividend payment as a percentage of its stock price. But just about any measure of financial productivity can be turned into a yield. A price/earnings ratio of 15, turned upside to create an earnings/price ratio (1 divided by 15), becomes an earnings yield when expressed as a percentage: 6.7%. A company with a $10 stock price and $8 per share of yearly sales has a sales yield of 80%, you might say.
Free cash flow yield is a particularly useful measure. It shows at a glance the maximum amount that can be lavished on shareholders. After all, free cash flow is the amount of real, spendable cash coming in each quarter that can be spent on things like dividends, share repurchases and investments. (Earnings, on the other hand, are an accounting contrivance designed to make quarterly comparisons meaningful.) Clearly, investors can't expect a company with a 2% free cash flow yield to continue paying a 5% dividend and buying back stock, unless it's spending down a cash stockpile or borrowing.
The companies below have lately generated free cash equal to more than 7% of their stock market values, making their dividend yields, all over 2%, seem affordable.
Cardinal Health
2010 FCF Yield: 7.8%
Dividend Yield: 2.1%
Dublin, Ohio-based Cardinal Health (CAH) is a go-between for hundreds of drug makers and thousands of stores, hospitals, nursings homes and other facilities that buy drugs. The company also distributes throwaway medical products like gloves, gowns and blood collection kits. In its last two quarters, Cardinal Health has topped Wall Street's earnings forecasts by more than 20% on a combination of internal efficiency efforts and stronger-than-expected demand. This fiscal year ending June 30, Cardinal should generate $945 million of free cash (before dividends), rising to $1.03 billion next year and $1.18 billion the year after, according to projections by Oppenheimer, an investment bank. Management plans to use the cash to expand, increase its dividend payments and repurchase stock.
Verizon
2010 FCF Yield: 8.6%
Dividend Yield: 6.6%
Cable television companies have in recent years persuaded customers to drop their landline telephone service in favor of Voice over Internet Protocol, or VoIP, service. Now, phone giants Verizon (VZ) and AT&T (T) are busy laying fiber optic networks, which they'll use to try to entice cable television customers to switch to fiber-optic service. The initial construction is expensive, but Verizon is projected to finish by the end of 2010, a year ahead of AT&T. Once the big spending is out of the way, free cash flow for both companies should swell. Verizon is forecast to produce $7.08 billion in free cash this year, jumping to $9.81 billion next year.
Mattel
2010 FCF Yield: 8.2%
Dividend Yield: 3.6%
Last quarter, toy maker Mattel (MAT) increased its sales only modestly but widened its profit margins considerably. As a result, it reported earnings that were 19% above what Wall Street was expecting. Mattel looks likely to benefit this year from reduced competition for Barbie, as competitors like Hanna Montana and Webkinz have lost sales momentum. Toy Story 3 hits movie theaters this summer, with Mattel holding the toy license (and Barbie playing a role in the movie). Also, Mattel looks likely to spend less in coming years on legal bills, following a massive 2007 recall of China-made toys and the winding down of a lawsuit with MGA entertainment over Bratz, a line of dolls that have cut into Barbie sales. In December 2008, a federal judge ruled that Mattel owns the Bratz brand. Mattel planned to sell it this year, but the company is waiting for appeal results. Investment bank Needham estimates Mattel will produce $621 million in free cash this year, rising to $694 million next year and $726 million the year after.
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