4 Stocks That Thrive in a Bad Economy

Absent my favorite brew, I ll drink Samuel Adams gladly, Coors under protest and Molson only if things have gone horribly wrong.

In September though, I predicted Molson Coors Brewing (TAP) would prove a better stock than Sam s brewer, Boston Beer (SAM) . Two reasons: Severe hops inflation had made Boston s amber waves far less profitable than Molson Coors pale yellow ones. And Molson Coors was by far the cheaper stock, at 16 times earnings, vs. 24.

Indeed, Molson Coors stock has fallen an enviable 11% since then. The broad American stock market is down 30% and Boston Beer has lost 38%. The valuation gap has narrowed but not closed. Molson Coors now carries a 2008 price/earnings ratio of 16 and Boston Beer 15. (That s based on three quarters of reported earnings and estimates for the fourth quarter.)

It s tempting to switch my preference -- for the shares, not the beers. Hops prices have eased a touch, after all, with a larger harvest expected this year. But I have a new reason for picking Coors. According to my beer price survey, conducted solely at a grocer across the street from SmartMoney s Manhattan office (it s cold out), Coors costs 33% less. Cheap is suddenly fashionable. I wonder if a decade-long shift in U.S. alcohol consumption away from big-label domestic beer in favor of pricier craft beer, wine and liquor isn t due to reverse. Molson Coors is expected to increase profits this year. Boston Beer isn't.

Below I ve listed Molson Coors and a few other companies that seem likely to thrive in a recession. All pay dividends, have reasonably priced shares and carry modest debt, or none at all.

Genuine Parts (GPC) relies on cars for half its business and plants and offices for the rest. U.S. car sales have hit their worst level in 15 years, but fewer new cars means more repairs on old ones. Genuine Parts, Advance Auto Parts (AAP) and AutoZone (AZO) are all expected to increase profits this year. Genuine has the cheapest shares and biggest dividend yield (4.1%), and has negligible debt. Also, three-quarters of its car-part sales come from mechanics, not stores. That means it s less exposed to slowing retail traffic for nonessential car trinkets.

Profits for Cal-Maine (CALM), the nation s largest egg producer, are expected to fall during its fiscal year ending May 31. But sales are still growing, and growth is expected to resume later in the year. I recommended the stock last April, based largely on its modest valuation. The broad market has lost 37% since then, but Cal-Maine is down just 11%. With a drop-off in restaurant visits seemingly priced into earnings forecasts, shares go for just six times this fiscal year estimate. Cal-Maine is only modestly indebted, and pays a variable dividend equal to one-third of profits. Right now that works out to just over 5%.

Finally, I recommended Pfizer (PFE) in the middle of October. It s up 1%, vs. a 13% decline in the broad market. It still has a $10 billion cash surplus, a single-digit P/E and a dividend yield of 7.3%. And drugs, like alcohol, are a good bet in a recession. Pfizer s sales and profits are expected to increase this year.

Screen Survivors
CompanyTickerIndustryStock
Price
Forward
P/E
Proj. EPS
Growth
(%, current fiscal year)
Dividend
Yield
(%)
Pfizer PFE Drugs$17.36757.3
Molson Coors TAP Beer43.8515231.8
Genuine Parts GPC Car Parts36.5712<14.1
Cal-Maine CALM Eggs29.39625.0

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