ByELIZABETH O'BRIENRUSSELL PEARLMAN
American investors> transfixed by domestic debacles might not have noticed that foreign markets have fallen too, in many cases further than ours. But in the eyes of some savvy investors, stocks of well-run, long-standing foreign firms have gone from pretty expensive to awfully cheap in mere months--and that free fall is creating the opportunities they ve been waiting for. When valuations are this extreme, people should just be buying, says David Herro, manager of the Oakmark International fund, who has scooped up shares of French advertising firms and Swiss banks.
It wasn t that long ago that some analysts were pushing the theory of decoupling, the idea that smaller foreign countries would no longer be beholden to the giant American economy for their own growth. Consider decoupling debunked by the ongoing crisis. Many foreign firms found they could not increase profits quickly when their best customers us started to rein in spending.
See Our Slideshow: 5 Global Stocks for Bargain Hunters
The pullback in exports to the U.S. exposed other problems in foreign economies: lax lending standards, an overreliance on commodity goods such as oil, even corruption. The result has been an expected retrenchment in worldwide economic growth, from 3.7 percent in 2007 to less than 1 percent in 2009, according to the World Bank. As the prospects for growth disappeared, world stock markets tanked.
But some analysts think foreign stocks have fallen too far. The Leuthold Group, which tracks market data worldwide, estimates that stocks in 17 of the 23 developed economies now trade near their all-time lows. Companies such as Canon, the Japanese camera company, and French advertising firm Publicis are sitting on a ton of cash with little debt and outstanding competitive positions and they re paying healthy dividends as they wait for a turnaround.
Of course, investing abroad carries more risk than investing in the good ole U.S.A. Foreign economies are often less stable even in stodgy Old World places like France. And if the world s economy sinks into a depression, stocks everywhere could drop further. But some investors think those risks are worth taking at today s prices. To find the best values, we zeroed in on stocks from only the developed economies. Sure, Russian and Indian stocks have gotten cheap too, but they pose more risk than firms from places like Japan.
Below, five picks all easy to buy on U.S. stock exchanges.
NOKIA (NOK)
Nokia s manufacturing flexibility allows the company to launch new products quicker than rivals. And its economies of scale mean Nokia can afford to compete on price, says Cynthia Tusan, portfolio manager of the Aston/SGA International Small-Mid Cap Fund. In parts of the developing world, consumers buy phones directly from the handset company and not through wireless-service providers the way Americans do, which helps Nokia strengthen its brand recognition among those nations increasingly affluent consumers.
Nokia certainly has its fair share of problems. The company expects handset sales to drop in 2009. And it lags in fifth place in the U.S., in part because its basic, functional phones haven t captured the public s imagination like iPhones and BlackBerrys. Still, some analysts feel the 56 percent drop in Nokia s share price since May overestimates the company s challenges, and CEO Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo has asserted that Nokia s scale and brand identity will help it during the downturn. The company consistently has higher profit margins than most of its major rivals. But Nokia is at its cheapest since the Nasdaq bubble popped. Meanwhile, the stock pays a hefty dividend.
DIAGEO (DEO)
Even if alcohol sales do drop in a protracted recession, Diageo s global reach could help mitigate the impact. Ten percent of the company s $16 billion in revenue comes from Africa, where drinking habits likely won t be impacted by Wall Street s woes. Diageo s Guinness beer sells better in Nigeria than it does in the brew s native Ireland; in Kenya, drinkers of all income brackets quaff Senator Keg beer, known and loved simply as Obama by the locals. In the U.S., Diageo employs salespeople who focus on just one brand, an effective strategy, says Sasha Kovriga, a portfolio manager with Osterweis Capital Management. That personal service seems to keep bars reordering Smirnoff vodka, Johnnie Walker and Baileys liqueur, three of Diageo s best-selling brands here.
Some investors contend Diageo is a bargain right now. The company has used its free cash to buy back shares, and its debt load remains low. Diageo s balance sheet, paradoxically, can become stronger the longer some of its products sit in the warehouse. That s because while the products of most companies lose value the longer they remain unsold, more than a quarter of Diageo s revenues come from some form of whiskey, which often commands higher prices as it gets older. Just by sitting there, the inventory appreciates, Kovriga says.
SANOFI-AVENTIS (SNY)
To be sure, ObamaCare isn t the only issue on the horizon. More than half of Sanofi s sales come from drugs that lose their patent protection over the next five years. But Sanofi is doing something about generic competition by getting into the generic business. Last year Sanofi launched a bid to acquire Czech drugmaker Zentiva, which makes and sells generic cardiovascular and digestive medicines. And CEO Chris Viehbacher, who joined the company from GlaxoSmithKline on Dec. 1, is expected to overhaul the company s research and development. Meanwhile, the political winds out of Washington could end up helping Sanofi if the Obama administration proves more receptive to stem-cell research than the Bush administration did.
Sanofi s depressed stock more than reflects the problems it and the industry at large face, analysts say. Its shares are down nearly 30 percent from their 52-week high, and it trades at seven times 2009 s expected earnings. Analysts expect it to increase sales by 6 percent and profits 13 percent in 2009. At these prices, and with the company s large dividend, patient investors have an incentive to wait.
PUBLICIS GROUPE (PUBGY)
That bodes well for Paris-based Publicis Groupe, one of the four largest global advertising firms. The company owns Saatchi & Saatchi, Leo Burnett and other firms that have created ad campaigns for such varied clients as the British Labour Party and the Nintendo Wii. To be sure, Publicis will see its fair share of suffering this time around floundering General Motors is one of its largest North American clients. But the majority of an ad agency s assets are people, not big factories, which means Publicis has very few costs it can t trim, a big plus in a weak economy. And the firm has bulked up its online presence, getting a head start on its competitors by buying leading online ad firm Digitas. The company expects most of its growth this year to come from digital advertising and emerging markets; the latter account for about one-fifth of its $6.4 billion in annual revenue.
Publicis s stock trades well below its 10-year average P/E. Its shares are down almost 30 percent over the past 12 months. But Publicis should rally on even a hint of an economic recovery, says Oakmark International s David Herro, who has been buying the stock.
CANON (CAJ)
Canon s copier and office-equipment businesses have made shareholders worry recently. The deteriorating global economy combined with the increasing value of Japan s yen has made those products less attractive abroad, notes Ryosuke Katsura, senior analyst for the investment bank Mizuho. However, Canon isn t taking a downturn lightly, creating a central computer system that could trim more than $1 billion in costs annually by keeping tabs on sales, production and development costs.
At the beginning of 2008, Canon had $8.5 billion in cash with almost no long-term debt. The firm bought back nearly 27 million shares, or 2 percent of the shares outstanding, making an already cheaply valued stock even cheaper. And with the company expected to generate $7 billion in free cash this year, analysts suspect it could raise the dividend, which currently yields 3.6 percent, or buy back even more shares.



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