ByJACK HOUGH
Tuesday it was >
J.P. Morgan (JPM)
Dividend cuts seem epidemic. On Feb. 5, even before the aforementioned companies announced cuts, Standard & Poor s said it expected payments for companies in its 500-stock index to shrink 13.3% this year. That would be the sharpest contraction since World War II.
But for dividend investors the news isn t nearly as bad as it appears, for three reasons. First, cuts are largely concentrated in a single, troubled sector. Of 82 companies in the S&P 500 that have cut payments since the start of 2008, more than two-thirds are financials. Second, while the overall dollar amount of payments has declined, that s owed mostly to cuts by a handful of giant banks. Since the start of 2008, dividend increases have outnumbered cuts among S&P 500 companies 4 to 1.
Third, a decade of puny yields has given way to almost plump ones. Over 10 years ending 2007, the S&P 500 s yield averaged 1.6%. A halving of stock prices in the past 16 months has boosted the index s yield to 3.2%, based on S&P s 2009 dividend forecast issued Feb. 5. Over the past two centuries, stocks have carried an average dividend yield of close to 5%.
Index investors will have little trouble capturing the market s newly generous yield. Stock pickers must use more caution, since cuts have become more difficult to predict. One standard tactic -- making sure a company s dividend doesn t consume too much of its profits doesn t always apply. Intel (INTC)
Ultimately, growth strategies may trump payment ability when managers decide whether to scrap dividends. Pfizer (PFE)
Not even a long history of dividends is a sure guide. Dow Chemical hadn t cut its dividend in 97 years before Feb. 12.
To select the six companies below, I looked for 5% dividend yields among companies with stable sales and profits and strong balance sheets, while making sure dividend payments make up not more than three-quarters of this year s earnings forecast. I ignored banks, as well as manufacturers like General Electric (GE)
Consolidated Edison (ED)
Verizon (VZ)
Pitney Bowes (PBI)
| Ticker | Company | Industry | Share Price | Dividend Yield (%) | Dividend as % of Profits* | Price / Earnings* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| * Based on 2009 earnings forecasts Data as of Feb. 24, 2009 Source: SmartMoney.com | ||||||
| ED | Consolidated Edison | Diversified Utilities | $37.46 | 6.3 | 74 | 11.7 |
| LLY | Eli Lilly & Co. | Drug Manufacturers/Major | 32.91 | 5.9 | 47 | 7.9 |
| GPC | Genuine Parts | Auto Parts Wholesale | 29.00 | 5.5 | 65 | 11.8 |
| HNZ | H.J. Heinz | Food | 33.77 | 5.1 | 57 | 11.7 |
| PBI | Pitney Bowes | Business Equipment | 20.01 | 7.0 | 55 | 7.6 |
| VZ | Verizon Communications | Telecom Services | 28.57 | 6.4 | 73 | 11.4 |



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