ByJACK HOUGH
Bubbles love banks>. To properly chase house and stock prices to unsustainable highs, buyers need big dollops of cheaply lent cash. House buyers congratulate each other for using "other people's money." Stock buyers convince each other that prices are justified by profit growth. (Never mind that the profits come from filling new houses with financed trimmings, and from spending the sudden abundance of "equity" on treats.)
Banks love bubbles, too. Rising asset prices keep loan payments prompt, at least for a while. The flood of new loans and the low delinquency rates make for giant profits. Stock buyers applaud the banks -- which they own, after all -- and chase their share prices higher, becoming wealthier themselves, and qualifying for more financial services, which generate more profit, and so on.
That's more or less how in 2006, financial companies came to make up 22% of America's stock market value. They weren't just facilitating the economy from the sidelines; they were the economy. The finance sector went from being half the size of manufacturing to double its size in 16 years.
Financial stocks are among the market's most abused this year. Investment banks within the S&P 500 are down 71%. Thrifts and home lenders are down 89%. The sector as a whole has shrunk to 13% of the index's value. Small enough? Maybe not. In the early 1990s, financials made up 7% to 11% of the market's value.
On its own, though, the financial sector's relative size might not tell the whole story. Banks aren't the only companies that have acted like banks in recent years. That non-financial stock portfolio you're hiding out in -- the one composed of the likes of tractor maker Deere (DE)
This column has avoided recommending bank stocks in recent months. One exception: Bank of America (BAC),
Note that I recommended Caterpillar (CAT)
| Company | Ticker | Industry | Price | Market Value | % of Sales From Finance Last Year | Proj. EPS Growth / Decline Next Year (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General Electric | GE | Conglomerate | 18.13 | 180.49 | 35.00 | -13.40 |
| John Deere | DE | Farm Equipment | 33.75 | 14.25 | 8.50 | -4.40 |
| Harley Davidson | HOG | Motorcycles | 16.62 | 3.87 | 6.80 | -9.20 |
| Ford | F | Cars | 2.85 | 6.81 | 10.50 | n/a |
| Caterpillar | CAT | Construction Equipment | 39.65 | 23.92 | 6.70 | -17.10 |



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