ByJACK HOUGH
Winner s curse and> empire building might sound like chapter titles of a Harry Potter knockoff, but they have nothing to do with wizardry. They re terms researchers use to explain why, when one company buys another, it usually gets a bad deal.
The winner s curse is why you re better off selling on eBay than buying; in auctions, winning bidders tend to overpay. The same goes for companies sought by more than one suitor, and the number of auction participants is inversely correlated with the subsequent returns. That is, frothy deals blow more of the buyer s money.
Empire building is something of a dig at managers. Even absent auctions, company takeovers tend to lose money, because companies, like individuals, often buy high. During a merger wave from 1998 to 2001, researchers calculate that companies squandered 12 cents in shareholder capital for each dollar they spent. Longer-term studies raise similar doubts about the financial rewards of takeovers, to the point where researchers theorize that managers buy other companies mostly because they want to run bigger operations. They build empires, but at a cost to their stock prices.
Just like on eBay, as a shareholder involved in a takeover you re usually better off as a seller than a buyer. The average acquisition in recent decades has commanded a stock premium of some 35%. Predicting which companies will one day attract bids isn t easy. You might choose wrong. A deal might take years. It might not come with the price premium you d hoped for. Fortunately, corporate suitors look for things that are pretty similar to what individual investors look for anyhow -- low purchase prices relative to potential profits. So investors can search for cheap stocks using the same measures buyout pros use, but view takeover potential as an aside rather than the main rationale for their decisions.
The companies listed below have low EV/Ebitda ratios. EV stands for enterprise value, which is the cost to own all of a company s shares and pay off its debt while applying its cash to the transaction. Ebitda is earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. It s a measure of underlying profit potential that ignores some accounting charges related to past transactions, as well as interest and tax payments, the size of which often change after a deal. In addition to having low EV/Ebitda ratios -- low takeover prices relative to their profit potential -- these companies generate ample free cash, which suitors would presumably be happy to lay claim to.
Advance Auto Parts (AAP)
Top priorities in a spending downturn include food and medicine, and perhaps a swipe of underarm deodorant, but not necessarily a spritz of name-brand perfume. Accordingly, sales for Inter Parfums (IPAR),
Have a look if you like at details on these and other companies on the table below.
| Ticker | Company | Industry | Share Price | Market Value ($mil) | EV/Ebitda | Forward P/E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAP | Advance Auto Parts | car parts | $41.64 | 3943 | 7.58 | 15 |
| ANN | Ann Taylor Stores | clothing stores | 5.00 | 286 | 0.86 | n/a |
| BJ | BJ's Wholesale Club | discount stores | 32.21 | 1894 | 5.64 | 14 |
| IPAR | Inter Parfums | perfume | 5.60 | 172 | 2.66 | 8 |
| WG | Willbros Group | oil & gas services | 9.80 | 384 | 2.03 | 8 |



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