ByJACK HOUGH
Back to the Story
ROSS STORES is defying America's retail slump. Sales for all clothing and general merchandise stores rose just a fraction of one percent in June. Ross managed a 15% increase, or 8% at longstanding stores.
The Pleasanton, Calif.-based chain is likely benefitting from the ill fortune of posh retailers. Some of their customers, pinched by high gasoline prices and declining house and stock wealth, are newly keen on bargains. Wal-Mart Stores has them, of course, but its brands wrinkle the noses of the stylish. Ross buys clothes with sought-after brands from merchants and manufacturers when the latter are caught with too much stock. It sells those clothes at considerable discounts through 863 namesake stores, most in suburban strip malls, and through a 54-store chain called dd's Discounts, launched in 2004. Most customers are women shopping for themselves and their families and who enjoy a "bargain hunt," the company says. Analysts say Ross has had a flood of industry overstock to choose from of late.
Management also deserves credit for efficiently managing its own inventory, which has kept profit margins healthy, and for using spare cash to buy back shares, which has amplified profit gains for stockholders. In its first quarter the company grew sales by 10% and profit by 19%, while increasing earnings per share by 25%.
In January 2007 in this space I mentioned Ross's new inventory management system in recommending a purchase of its shares over those of its larger rival, TJX Cos., which operates discount clothing chain TJ Maxx. Ross stock has since gained 26%, vs. 14% for TJX and a 14% decline for the S&P 500 index. It turned up recently in what I call the Impatient Value screen. It looks for companies with the unlikely combination of modest stock valuations and recent share price gains, the idea being that bargains with momentum are likely to pay off sooner than those without. (Six companies made the cut in all. Run your own search using SmartMoney's stock screener and the full list of criteria
a plan I called tragicomic in January. Recipients wisely stashed much of the money; in May, personal savings as a percentage of disposable income jumped to 5% from 0.4% in April. A portion of the cash probably financed shopping trips. Assuming the months ahead will invite no more taxpayer-financed generosity toward taxpayers, and that the personal savings rate will continue creeping toward its 7% average since 1929, even top-performing retailers like Ross might be due for a difficult stretch.
That means Ross's prospective investors, like its shoppers, ought to demand quality merchandise for less. The stock goes for 16 times this year's earnings forecast, down from the 18 times earnings it went for at the time of my last recommendation. That's a fair deal, though I suspect that, the stock's appearance on my screen notwithstanding, buyers who hold out until later this year will see a better one.
Also See:
See All the Screen Survivors
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Impatient Value Screen Survivors | ||||||
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Stock Ticker |
Company Name |
Industry |
Curr. Price ($) |
Price Chg. YTD (%) |
Forward P/E (Curr. Yr.) |
Return on Invested Capital (%) |
|
AZZ |
Industrial Electrical Eqp |
44.82 |
58.10 |
14.94 |
18.99 | |
|
EZCorp |
Credit Services |
16.36 |
44.91 |
13.75 |
19.47 | |
|
ICON PLC ADS |
Research Services |
75.95 |
22.78 |
31.13 |
15.09 | |
|
Ross Stores |
Apparel Stores |
37.77 |
47.71 |
16.86 |
24.68 | |
|
Safeco |
Prprty/Casualty Insurance |
66.22 |
18.93 |
11.13 |
15.34 | |
|
Wabtec |
Railroads |
48.98 |
42.22 |
18.77 |
15.61 | |
Data as of July 14, 2008.



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