8 Bright Spots of the 2Q Earnings Season

The bulk of second-quarter earnings season is now in the books and it was far better than Wall Street had hoped. More than 70% of the companies in the S&P 500 that have reported results thus far have beaten analysts' average expectations, according to Thomson Reuters, well above the typical "beat rate" of more than 60%.

The fact that most of those positive earnings surprises came from cost cutting (read: layoffs) makes it harder for investors to determine whether the better-than-expected bottom-line numbers are sustainable. Indeed, just slightly more than a quarter of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported year-over-year revenue growth, according to Yardeni Research. (And let's not forget that aggregate second-quarter earnings for the S&P 500 are still down nearly 30% from a year ago, according to Thomson Reuters.)

But perhaps more important than bottom-line results are the details revealed by reading between the lines of company guidance. After all, the latest earnings reports tell us about business conditions as they were between April and June, but what investors are really looking for are clues about how these businesses are faring now or three months from now -- and, of course, any signs that we're on the road to a broader economic recovery.

Painting a picture of the future based on earnings guidance is bound to disappoint investors, however. Given that chief executives have seen their share prices soar from the early March lows, there's little or no incentive to stick their necks out with optimistic guidance for upcoming quarters, says Jeffrey Kleintop, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, a Boston-based financial-services firm.

"CEOs have already seen big moves in their share prices so they are hesitant to raise the bar and risk disappointing the market later. They want to keep expectations as low as possible," says Kleintop.

That well-placed caution also serves to put any glimmer of good news in extra-sharp relief. After all, any silver linings coming out of second-quarter earnings season just might mean that we're farther along the path to recovery than any management team or investor dare hope.

SmartMoney.com culled through the second-quarter earnings reports to find bright spots that go beyond the myriad "beats." Here, then, are eight companies that showed some real signs of life:

Could it be a sign that consumers are willing to spend again -- or just a fluke? When

(

) reported its second-quarter earnings on July 21 it shocked Wall Street by announcing that it sold 5.2 million iPhones -- up 626% from a year ago.

Apple (AAPL)

That gave a nice boost to Apple's bottom and top line, both of which were records for a non-holiday quarter. Net profit for the company's fiscal third quarter was $1.35 a diluted share up 13% from $1.19 per diluted share a year ago beating analysts expectations by 18 cents.

Apple reported stellar [third-quarter] results, particularly in light of the depressed consumer environment, Edward Zabitsky, principal and CEO of ACI Research, wrote in a report Wednesday.

However, investors shouldn't look at Apple's blowout iPhone sales as evidence of a trend given that a large percentage of them were driven by existing customers who were upgrading to the new 3GS model, Zabitsky said in an interview. In fact, the analyst believes the environment for premium consumer products like the iPhone will remain challenging for several years as consumers adjust to a new normal.

When the world's largest steel maker says a global recovery is strengthening -- outside of the U.S. and Western Europe, that is -- anyone keen on macroeconomic trends has got to feel more bullish. After all, given its ubiquity in cars, construction, infrastructure and durable consumer goods, there are few better leading economic indicators than the demand for steel.

That's why it was especially hopeful when Lakshmi Mittal, chairman and chief executive of ArcelorMittlal (MT), told Wall Street that he believes the worst is over, even after his Luxembourg-based company swung to a second-quarter loss of $792 million from a year-ago profit of $5.8 billion. Demand from China, India and Turkey -- leading emerging market economies -- spurred the company to bring back workers in order to restart mills and blast furnaces, the executive said. And although Mittal said the U.S. is lagging China and other emerging markets for now, he thinks a recovery here "could happen in the next two quarters."

Industry analyst Manoj Chauhan of First Global Research agrees with Mittal's assessment and expects a recovery in the overall global steel industry to begin by the end of 2009.

It was a relief to

(

) shareholders when the company that makes flat-panel TV screens posted better-than-expected second-quarter earnings. It was even better news when Jim Flaws, the chief financial officer, said the worst is behind the company, thanks to robust global demand for LCD TVs, mostly from China and Japan. That led Corning to actually hire back hourly workers, bringing its domestic production capacity up to around 75% from below 50% when conditions were at their worst. Demand for LCD TVs is a good sign, seeing as they are both a discretionary purchase and a comparatively expensive one at that.

Corning (GLW)

But it's even more encouraging when a company hires, rather than fires, employees. Corning's posturing on the third and fourth quarters remains cautious, but Vijay Rakesh, an analyst at ThinkEquity who rates shares at Buy, says the market is missing the potential of even better sales later this year. "We believe that given the macro commentary, the [Corning] outlook is conservative and the stock is now pricing in conservative flat [third-quarter] guidance vs. the possibility of a seasonally stronger holiday season," Rakesh told clients in a July 28 report.

As a vast, diversified industrial and financial services conglomerate,

's (

) earnings are often seen as a barometer for the health of the economy. So when the company said second-quarter net income fell nearly 50%, distraught investors immediately knocked the company's stock down 6%. True, GE beat the Street by three cents a share, but only thanks to a tax benefit.

General Electric (GE)

But there was something most investors may have missed. GE Capital, the company s beleaguered finance arm, appears to have stabilized and is on track to be profitable this year, management said. Although S&P called the finance units results "weak," investors were pleased that GE Capital said it won't need outside funds to cover future loan losses. Even more encouraging, GE Capital said U.S. consumer spending has shown slight improvement, with U.S. credit-card delinquencies improving during the second quarter.

There's no doubt that the GE Capital business remains under duress. (Even Stephen O Neil, an analyst at Hilliard Lyons who rates shares at Buy, bases that recommendation solely on the earnings potential of the company's industrial assets, not GE Capital.) But at least the finance arm is no longer seen as the conglomerate's albatross.

Like many of its peers in the financial-services industry,

(

), Europe's largest bank, had a rough start to the year: Pretax profit for the first half of the year (which is how most European firms report results) plunged more than 50% year-over-year to $5 billion. Despite the steep drop, HSBC's results still surpassed the Street's forecast of $4.9 billion and marked an improvement over the last six months of 2008.

HSBC (HBC)

But it was what the company said about the financial-services industry as a whole that really caught Wall Street's attention. The company said that based on its own trends, the financial markets may have hit and passed the bottom of the cycle. "It may be that we have passed, or about to pass, the bottom of the cycle of the financial markets," Chairman Stephen Green told analysts on a conference call. If true, it should bode well for the broader market, seeing as how the financial sector has been leading it by the nose ever since the rally began back in March.

As for the company, some analysts say the company's U.S. consumer finance business will likely bottom out this year. "Early signs of stabilization in the housing market may encourage refinancing of mortgages that should speed up repayment and shrinkage of the troubled loan exposure," wrote Paul Lee, an analyst with Hong Kong-based Taifook Research.

Chip makers are often one of the first industries to take a hit during a recession, as businesses and consumers cut back on purchases of new PCs and other gadgets. In January, industry bellwether

(

) told investors that it would have to slow production. But now things seem to be picking up for the Santa Clara, Calif.-based company. On July 14, the company beat Wall Street s second-quarter forecast by 10 cents a share and revenue climbed 12% to $8 billion.

Intel (INTC)

Our second-quarter results were clearly better than we expected, with demand strengthening throughout the quarter, Paul Otellini, the company s president and CEO, said in a conference call with analysts. While the global economic environment is still recovering, our customers signaled increased confidence for a seasonal second half with their ordering patterns.

It s a good sign overall for the computer supply chain in its entirety, said Hendi Susanto, an analyst at Gabelli & Company. The release of Windows 7 may prompt some businesses that have delayed upgrades to make new purchases, Susanto said, improving the outlook for a strong second half for technology companies.

The home-building business is definitely not a place for the faint of heart these days. After reporting a 32% drop in revenue from $9.3 billion in 2007 to $6.3 billion in 2008,

(

) knows this all too well. But now it appears Pulte is starting to pull through.

Pulte Homes (PHM)

During its second quarter the Bloomfield Hills, Mich.-based company reported a net loss of 74 cents a share for the second quarter, narrower than the company s first-quarter net loss of $2.02 per share. The company s president and CEO, Richard J. Dugas, Jr., acknowledged that the results show the market stress but pointed to positive signs including an 11% increase in net new orders (on 9% fewer communities) over the first quarter.

Considering Pulte has less of an exposure to cheaper homes for first-time buyers and more of a focus on older, wealthier demographic communities, we were not particularly expecting a strong result, Wall Street Strategies analyst David Urani wrote in a report Wednesday. Recent home sales figures, he says, suggest the demand surge from the spring has legs, he wrote.

Consumers still aren t spending much, but

(

) found a bright spot in what chairman, president and CEO Gregg Steinhafel described as modestly improving risk trends for the company s credit-card segment. The segment had taken a hit from customers missing payments, but the number of delinquent accounts has been leveling off over the past couple of months. Account balances with two or more late payments were 8.13% of the company s receivables in June, down from nearly 9% at the end of last year, William Blair & Company analyst Mark Miller wrote in a report on July 22.

Target (TGT)

That bodes well for the big-box retailer. Even a slight uptick in credit card receivables could boost the company s earnings, says Brian Sozzi, an analyst at Wall Street Strategies.

Investors will have to wait a little longer for things to completely turn around for the company, however. Target s comparable same-store sales for July were down 6.5% from a year ago. Since Target s core business is in discretionary categories like home furnishings and apparel, If you re looking for double-digit sales growth, it s not going to happen this year, says Sozzi, but the company could see some improvement in sales by the latter part of the third quarter.

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