8 Most Optimistic Prognosticators

It was just 16 months ago when the Dow Jones Industrial Average was breaking the 14000 mark, a record high that stood resilient in the face of a crumbling housing market. So much for that...

The situation on Wall Street has gotten so dismal since then that President Obama has added Cheerleader-in-Chief to his resume. When asked about the stock market last week he said "profit and earnings ratios are starting to get to the point where buying stocks is a potentially good deal if you've got a long-term perspective on it." How bullish of him.

See what our 8 optimists have to say

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Actually, President Obama isn't the only one staying hopeful about the future. Whether it's predicting an end this year to the recession, calling for a bottom in the housing market or betting on the first pitch of the baseball season, we found eight optimists weaving silver linings among all the doom and gloom.

Lawrence Yun: Mr. Bright Side

Chief Economist
National Association of Realtors

Yun has managed to do what others can't: Put a cheerful face on the housing market. Home prices slipped an average 18.5% last year. Now, one out of five homeowners owe more than their houses are worth. Nevertheless, amidst all that Yun sees reasons to stay cheery. When pending home sales plunged to their lowest rates since 2001, Yun said buyers are expected to respond to much improved affordability conditions and from the $8,000 first-time buyer tax credit.

Upbeat Prognosis: The NAR is predicting a 4.6% increase in home prices next year.

David Bianco: Fair Weather Forecaster

U.S. Strategist
UBS

Wall Street is full of market forecasters, but Bianco stands apart. Earlier this year he had a price target of 1300 on the S&P 500, a 44% increase that topped a poll of major forecasters. As the market continued to slide he revised that estimate to 1100, the same day Goldman Sachs (GS) ratcheted down its target to 650.

Upbeat Prognosis: A 40% upside is possible if GDP rebounds. "We encourage investors not to be blinded by the present."

Jeremy Siegel: Crunching the Numbers

Professor
Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania

Siegel, author of the best-seller "Stocks for the Long Run," says shares are even cheaper than they look due to a quirk in how valuations are calculated. He says index providers like Standard & Poor's fail to measure aggregate earnings and price-to-equity ratios correctly because they don't take into account the market capitalization weightings of index member companies.

Upbeat Prognosis: Siegel says the miscalculation results in $27 a share in earnings being shaved off the S&P.

Richard Bove: Bullish on Banks

Analyst
Rochdale Securities

Bove, who gained notoriety by calling attention to financial sector problems ahead of his colleagues, now says if banks were being valued on their deposits investors would see they were in better shape than they thought. Instead, the Street has been fixating on billions of dollars of noncash losses rung up due to mark-to-market accounting rules.

Upbeat Prognosis: Buy banks. I don t want to downplay the fact that the economy is weak, he says. But if you are willing to analyze these companies based upon their cash flows rather than their capital, you ll discover that the banking industry is in relatively good condition.

Wilbur Ross: The Bargain Hunter

Chairman
W.L. Ross & Co.

These days most investors are heading for safe havens like gold or cash. Not Ross. This billionaire "vulture" investor, who made his money buying steel and coal companies on the cheap, is back at it with beaten-down financial firms. He recently told Reuters debtor-in-possession loans, which help companies fund operations while in bankruptcy, are becoming a new way for opportunistic investors to take ownership of the ailing firms.

Upbeat Prognosis: Ross sees dollar signs in the toxic assets the government is buying. He's prepared to invest in any public-private deal surrounding the bailout of financial firms.

Roger McNamee: Pumping Up Palm

Founder
Elevation Partners

McNamee, who runs the venture-capital firm famously backed by U2 front man Bono, recently made a bold prediction that the Palm (PALM) Pre supposedly due in the first half of 2009 would quickly become gadget lovers favorite new toy, knocking the iPhone off its throne. Of course, McNamee has a financial reason to trumpet such a statement: Elevation owns 39% of the company. But the bullish prediction, along with other rosy sayings, was even too much for company executives, who resorted to the extraordinary move of filing an SEC document separating itself from the comments.

Upbeat Prediction: You know the beautiful thing: June 29, 2009, is the two-year anniversary of the first shipment of the iPhone," he said, hinting calling plans for the phone would expire near that date. "Not one of those people will still be using an iPhone a month later."

Ben Bernanke: Recession Buster

Chairman
Federal Reserve

Once thought to be on the way out, Bernanke has become the calm, cool and collected voice on the economy since Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is still having trouble instilling confidence on Capitol Hill and Wall Street. He railed against the last bailout for insurer AIG (AIG) and on Tuesday he made the case for sweeping new regulatory oversight of the nation's financial system. He remains positive about the outcome for previously announced government initiatives.

Upbeat Prognosis: Bernanke told Congress the recession could end this year with a full recovery several years in the making.

Tom Ricketts

Owner
Chicago Cubs

Ricketts, chief executive officer of Chicago-based Incapital and son of the founder of Ameritrade, offered $900 million for baseball's perennial heart-breaker. Although the team plays in one of the sport's most hallowed stadiums, it hasn't been home to the league's World Series winner since 1908. To break that dubious record, the Cubs recently spent $52 million on right-hander Ryan Dempster and $30 million on outfielder Milton Bradley.

Upbeat Prognosis: The Cubs are widely expected to win the National League Central division for the second straight year. The World Series, though, will be a tougher achievement.

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