ROI; Why We're All J.P. Morgan Now; Arends: The entire world of investing, including your 401(k), is now being run just like J.P. Morgan's "synthetic credit portfolio."

The drama unfolding at J.P. Morgan Chase is stunning. Gripping. And oh so predictable. If you think this is just a story about Wall Street greed and folly, and has nothing to do with you, think again. We are all J.P. Morgan now.

Borrowing Against a Portfolio Leaves Little Margin for Error

Lured by ultralow interest rates and a recovering stock market, investors have rediscovered a risky investing tool: the margin loan. Margin accounts, which allow investors to borrow against the value of the securities in their brokerage ...

Why a 'Balanced' Portfolio May Not Work; Arends: That 60/40 portfolio of stocks and bonds your adviser is pushing might not work.

What if everything your investment adviser is telling you is wrong? Look at the mutual fund choices your company is offering in your 401(k) plan. Look at the portfolio of those "target date" funds you're supposed to rely on, with their ...

Gas Pains Bring Investor Gains; Hough: Where to look now that natural gas stocks are out of steam.

In the past year, U.S. natural gas prices have fallen by half, and recently sat near a 10-year low. How cheap can gas get? Some say it may soon trade for next to nothing, and that has important -- though not-so-obvious -- implications for ...

Why U.S. House Prices Won't Recover; Hough: Taking inflation into account, U.S. home prices are down to 1895 levels.

When will U.S. house prices recover? Likely never. But that's no reason not to buy. The latest S&P / Case-Shiller numbers, reported last week, show that prices in 20 major markets declined 3.5% over the year through February. They're now ...

ROI; France's Left Turn May Be Right for Stocks; Arends: Investors concerned France's new Socialist president will tank the market should brush up on their history.

The last time the French elected a Socialist president their currency and stock market plunged in a matter of weeks. It turned out to be a bargain.

College: ‘best investment’ or big risk? Financial return for a four-year degree may surprise you

College is the best investment you can make, President Obama told students last month at the University of Colorado. As a metaphor for the benefits of education, that statement is fine. But taken as a claim about the financial returns of a ...

Stocks Are Cheap? Logic Says Otherwise; Arends: Is it true that stocks are cheap "when compared with bonds"? That's the line on Wall Street.

Is it true that stocks are cheap "when compared with bonds"? That's the line on Wall Street. If you haven't heard it from your broker yet, you will. Indeed, in a recent report, some investment strategists from big brokerages, in their ...

3 Stocks With Real Earnings Surprises; Hough: Here's how to tell companies that truly beat expectations from those that merely set the bar low.

Studies have long linked upside earnings surprises with handsome future stock returns. The problem with today's upside surprises, however, is that most aren't especially surprising.

The Problem With Emerging-Markets Funds; Hough: Many lack sufficient exposure to, of all things, emerging markets.

Your emerging-markets stock fund might need more exposure to emerging markets. Many such funds have large exposure in markets that bear more economic resemblance to the U.S. than to China and India. They also tend to favor companies with ...

Apple, IBM Push Tech to No. 2 in Dividends

The Fed in 57 Words

By Jack Hough; How to Beat Government Bonds—Using Social Security

For an investment return that tops those offered by hedge funds, insurance firms or Wall Street banks, baby boomers should look to Social Security.

ROI; Wall Street Is Full of 'Stock-Picking Robots'; Arends: Thousands of investors were duped into taking stock tips from a robot, the SEC says. Isn't that business as usual?

Twin brothers Alexander and Thomas Hunter have been scamming stock market investors since they were just 16 years old, says the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The Right Way to Buy Facebook

Retirement; When to Take Social Security: Your Questions Answered; A column on the decision to delay benefits got a big response from readers. Here are some questions answered.

Last week's Upside column looked at the question of when Social Security participants should start collecting payments: as early as age 62, as late as age 70 or somewhere between the two. Those who delay payments miss out on early ones but ...

ROI; How to Change Your Life; Arends: New research suggests the key to breaking a bad habit lies in identifying both its cue -- and its reward.

Most of us would like to change something about ourselves or our lives. We eat too much. We smoke. We don't exercise. We're stuck in the wrong job. We spend too much and save too little. We look for love in the wrong places.

4 Growth Stocks Without the Hefty Price; Hough: They aren't the cheapest stocks, but they offer pep with less of a premium.

Chipotle Mexican Grill presents a dilemma, and not just for burrito buyers torn between black beans and pinto beans. Store traffic is booming, margins look plump, and Wall Street expects the company's earnings per share to jump 31 percent ...

Why it's Time to De-Risk; Hough: Investors should consider swapping bold bets for boring ones.

Bulls say the capital markets are in a "risk rally," while cynics call it a "dash for trash." Whatever the label, assets that investors were too fearful to touch last year have lately been the market's top performers.

Are 'Long-Short' Funds a Good Bet? These funds offer ways to seek profits, protection or some of both. But with their high fees and complexity, they aren't for everyone.

Investors are caught between the fear of another stock market crash and the punishingly low yields on safe havens like Treasurys. "Long-short" mutual funds, which bet for and against stocks at the same time, offer ways to seek profits, ...

Big Boost to Returns

The track records of target-date mutual funds for retirement got a double boost lately. They benefited from the stock market's powerful start to 2012, with the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index rising 12% in the three months through ...

10 Things I Hate About Tax Day; Arends: Why writing the big check to Uncle Sam is the least of it.

Have you got your schedule C in order? Have you hunted down all your receipts? Have you made sure to count the depreciation on your laptop and the percentage of your cable bill attributable to your home office expense? And what about those ...

Financing Your Future; How to Create a Pension (With a Few Catches); 'Longevity insurance' is catching on with baby boomers. But even the best safety nets have some holes.

Americans with pension envy increasingly are turning to a relatively new breed of annuity, known as "longevity" insurance, to restore some financial security to what are supposed to be their golden years.

The Frugal Fund Company That's Up 38%; Hough: This value manager's shares look a lot pricier than its holdings.

An investment company known for its frugal approach to stock selection has seen its own shares reach lofty levels on Wall Street. WisdomTree Investments shares have gained 38% this year -- nearly four times the broad U.S. stock market's ...

ROI; How I Fixed the Tax Code (In Half a Day); Arends: The current tax code is appalling. Here's one that's simple, efficient and fair.

I did it. I reformed the U.S. tax code. It took me about half a day. With time off for lunch. Why Congress hasn't been able to do this in 26 years is another matter.

The Great Reversal: Playing the U.S. Manufacturing Boom

Investors who have favored emerging markets like China in recent years should pay attention to another growing manufacturing center. It boasts plenty of skilled workers; cheap and abundant energy; stable institutions; and a large middle ...

Hedge-fund ads are a game-changer; Commentary: Be careful of pitches from private-equity firms

BOSTON (MarketWatch) — The one thing that might have allowed convicted felon Bernie Madoff to run his phony hedge-fund business even longer in the face of an eroding stock market is successful advertising.

Stocks Hit All-Time High (Sort Of); Real-Time Advice: By one measure, the market has fully recovered from the 2008 global financial crisis.

3 Stocks With Scattered Earnings Estimates; Hough: As earnings season approaches, forecasts for these companies are all over the place.

Earnings season kicks off next week amid high uncertainty on Wall Street--especially concerning the companies below. Analysts have spent more than seven months steadily lowering their first-quarter earnings forecasts for the broad market. ...

3 Stocks for Those Seeking Safety; Hough: Worried about a summer sell-off for the market? Consider these shares.

Don't expect the stocks below to escape losses entirely if the broad market slides this summer. But history says they hold up relatively well in downturns, making them a good fit for jittery investors who want to stay in the market.

3 Stocks Short-Sellers Are Targeting; Hough: Investors who bet on falling share prices have turned their attention to these companies.

As share prices broadly rise, some investors are betting big against the three stocks listed below. Each has seen heavy "short-selling" in recent weeks. That's a trading tactic that involves selling shares without actually owning them in ...

The Coming Utility Surge

Investors who are worried that stocks have risen too far, too fast, should give utilities another look. Shares of electricity and gas companies typically offer generous dividend yields—dividend payments as a percentage of stock price—and ...

ROI; What Does Bernanke Know? Arends: Forget the Labor Department's jobs numbers. For a true picture of the bleak employment picture, look to men in their prime.

Fed chairman Ben Bernanke surprised the markets yesterday when he hinted that his policy of easy money would continue. "Further significant improvements in the unemployment rate," he said, "will likely require a more rapid ...

More Money, More Risk in Prepaid-Tuition Plans

Spooked by the stock market, more parents saving for college are putting their faith in something that could prove to be equally tenuous: the ability of state governments to manage money.

Dividend Investors to Get 15% Raise; Real-Time Advice: Apple isn't nearly alone in answering shareholder demand for yield this year.

How to Handle the Coming Dividend Tax Hike; Hough: Will the favorable tax treatment on dividends go away at the end of 2012, even as Apple and other companies roll out new dividends?

Apple's dividend announcement this past week is good news for income investors, but bad news might be lurking around the corner. Unless Congress takes action, the top tax rate for the highest earners on most dividends, currently 15%, is ...

Beware Fund Share-Class Fees

Cash poured into mutual funds during the first week of February at the fastest pace in nearly two years, according to data from the Investment Company Institute, a trade group.

Where to Find the Bargains

Stocks and higher-yielding "junk" bonds have surged so much in recent months that bargains are getting difficult to find. At the same time, safer investments such as Treasury bonds and high-grade corporate issues have meager ...

Apple at $500: Is It Time to Double Down—or Walk Away?

With Apple shares having recently topped $500, how soon might they hit $1,000? That is an impatient thought for an investor, perhaps. But Apple shareholders have gotten used to fast gratification: The share price has doubled five times in ...

ROI; Should You Sell Apple? Arends: Analysts and consumers are nuts for Apple, but iMania may not last much longer.

Expect the lines to form early on Friday outside Apple stores and electronics retailers, as devotees battle to get their hands on the latest iPad.

The 400% Man; How a college dropout at a tiny Utah fund beat Wall Street, and why most managers are scared to copy him.

On a fall day in 2010, half a dozen wealthy investors and portfolio managers converged on an office in midtown Manhattan. These were serious Wall Street moneymen; in aggregate, they handled more than a billion dollars. They had access to ...

Investors Gird for Higher Dividend Taxes

Financial advisers and their clients are starting to plan for, if not yet act on, a possible jump in taxes on dividends. Dividend-producing stocks have had a special attraction among investors in recent years, in part because of the ...

How to Spot a Company That's at the Top of its Game; Hough: Sometimes the next big thing is the current big thing.

Starbucks has been the subject of punch lines about chain store ubiquity at least since the summer of 1998, when The Onion, a satirical newspaper, ran a headline about the opening of a new Starbucks inside the restroom of an existing one. ...

How to Outsmart Social Security; Hough: A new study offers tips on when to begin collecting benefits.

Social Security is designed to be fair, but it plays favorites. A savvy retiree can maximize benefits by choosing to begin payments at just the right time. Most choose wrong, whether from necessity or because they don't understand the ...

Rough Sledding: Clinging to Stocks

The stock market was a happy place five years ago and heavenly in the 1990s. But after the financial crises of the past few years, investors could be forgiven for thinking that the market resembles the Iditarod sled-dog race in Alaska—a ...

An Insider Trading Loophole Congress Didn't Close; Real-Time: A bill passed Thursday bans lawmakers from profiting from privileged information. But company execs can still do so.

Coffee Stocks Look Shaky; Hough: Green Mountain's tumble is a cautionary sign. It's time to kick caffeine.

For a 500 year-old beverage made from water and fruit pits, coffee sure has got investors buzzing. Consider: The broad S&P 500-stock index sells for 13 times this year's earnings forecast. But Starbucks fetches more than 25 times ...

Emerging Markets ... It's a Jungle Out There

Emerging markets have started the year with a bang. From São Paulo to Singapore, stock and bond markets are booming and investors are jumping on board.

Investors' Sell Signal: Surging U.S. Stocks

The stock market is surging, but many individual investors aren't getting swept up in the excitement. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has climbed 6.2% this year, and closed above 13000 on Tuesday for the first time since May 2008. Dow ...

A Three-Year Bull Market: Feeling Better Yet?

On March 9, 2009, the stock market hit its postcrash bottom. Today, after a three-year rally that's seen the Dow Jones Industrial Average rise 98%, from 6547 points to 12978, investors are trying to understand how to explain the good ...

How to Tell if a Growth Stock Can Keep on Growing

Intuitive Surgical, a maker of medical robots, is expected to increase its earnings by 33% this year. That is tantalizing growth at a time when the broad Standard & Poor's 500-stock index is projected to see a 9% gain in operating ...

Parents Fear the Math Doesn't Add Up for Prepaid College Plans

Spooked by the stock market, more parents saving for their kids' colleges are putting their faith in something that could prove to be equally tenuous: the ability of state governments to manage money.

3 Stocks Bucking the Earnings Slowdown; Hough: Profit growth is slowing for most of the market, but not for these firms.

Over the past three years, corporate profits underlying the S&P 500 index have rebounded from a negative number to a record sum. Soaring profits, in turn, have helped to justify a quick rise in stock prices. But profits for the current ...

ROI; Do You Need to Buy Big Oil Stocks? Arends: As fuel prices soar (again), it may make sense to invest where you spend.

Be honest. When you are standing at the gas pump, refilling your car and watching the numbers spin higher and higher, don't you wish you had some stock in Exxon or BP?

Real Estate: When High Rents Are a 'Buy' Signal; Arends: In many markets nowadays, buying a home can be a better investment than renting one.

My wife and I recently sold our condo in Miami Beach to buy another one. The one we sold was a studio -- or "junior one bedroom" -- in a historic art deco building, a short walk from Ocean Drive and the popular News Cafe. It ...

Gone in 22 Seconds

If Mary Schapiro, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, wants to regulate the stock market, she's going to have to think faster.

How Much Risk Can You Manage?

In my last column, I outlined a new approach to managing investment risk that I summed up this way: Never gamble unless you can afford to lose.

The Surprising Truth About Positive Earnings Surprises; Hough: Shares not only leap after good earnings news, they drift higher for months.

Two companies report earnings that surpass Wall Street estimates by 10 percent. Shares of the first company jump, but those of the second are unchanged. Why?

Main Street's $100 Billion Stock-Market Blunder; Arends: The market may be back to pre-crisis levels, but many regular investors have missed out.

Back in the spring of 2009 I was approached by a middle-class investor in a panic. She had dumped all her stocks in the fall of 2008, following the Lehman Brothers collapse. She just couldn't stand watching her life's savings ...

How to Play a Slowing China

It has been a tough few weeks for China investors. After looking like the nation's slumping stock market had turned a corner, a wave of bad news sent it tumbling again.

ROI; Steinway & Sons: A Grand Investment? Arends: Investors who find the piano maker's concert grands too pricey might want to consider its stock.

Steinway & Sons has a brand name to die for. It's been more than 150 years since German immigrant Henry Steinway first began making pianos in a loft in New York. Today the company's famous name is almost synonymous around the ...

Strategist: Stock Market Should Double Again; Hough: Why one market forecaster thinks the current bull market isn't nearly over.

U.S. stock prices have doubled from their financial-crisis lows of just over three years ago, judging by the S&P 500 index. That has investors wondering if the market has rallied too far, too fast.

Maybe You Shouldn't Invest Now

With the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing to multi-year highs, investors might be tempted to join the rally. But John P. Hussman, who heads Hussman Funds, thinks the present ranks among what he calls "A Who's Who of Awful ...

Identical ETFs are not created equal; Commentary: What’s under the hood can impact returns

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Financials and industrials are the two sectors that have done the best since last Oct. 3, when the stock market shook off its lethargy and began climbing.

Mutual funds say ‘bye’ to bad three-year records; Commentary: Meltdown wiped from returns, but not memory

BOSTON (MarketWatch) — Mutual funds mark anniversaries to forget the past, not to celebrate it. With the three-year anniversary of the U.S. stock market’s bottom during the 2008-09 financial crisis passing last week, fund firms have a lot to ...

Why College Aid Makes College More Expensive; Hough: New research shows how federal spending on higher education can backfire.

Federal aid for students has increased 164% over the past decade, adjusted for inflation, according to the College Board. Yet three-quarters of Americans and even a majority of college presidents see college as unaffordable for most, and ...

The Dumbest Investment Move; Arends: Why owning your company's stock in your 401(k) can be a big mistake.

There are plenty of stupid investments you can make in this world. Stock in Pets.com and Washington Mutual didn't work out so well. Nor did those Las Vegas condos. Some of the social media and Web 2.0 stocks flying high on Wall Street ...

The 400% Man's New Big Bet; Arends: The little-known fund manager with eye-popping returns has 50% of his portfolio in one stock. Will it pay off?

Should you invest half your money in the same stock? Most financial planners would tell you that's a crazy idea, that you need to be more "diversified." But that's what Allan Mecham at Arlington Value -- aka the 400% Man ...

Why Europe stocks are too cheap to ignore; Commentary: The Old World is on sale

BOSTON (MarketWatch) — How cheap is Europe these days? Very. Especially for a U.S. investor. Not only have the stocks plummeted over there, but the currency has plummeted too.

Why Food Stocks Could Give Investors Heartburn; Hough: Two recent stock collapses look like isolated cases, but lofty valuations are widespread.

Six months ago this column drew reader attention to a trio of food stocks that looked too expensive. One of them, snack specialist Snyder's-Lance, has risen a bit since then, but the other two have plummeted.

In New Year, Being More Active Is Thus Far Good (Financial) Advice

Mutual-fund managers who actively trade—and pile up fees in the process—have long been punching bags for investors. But suddenly they look like heavyweight champs.

Will the Europeans have to sell their gold? Commentary: Pressure on gold is bullish in the long term

LONDON (MarketWatch) — If the Italians can’t persuade the bond markets to keep them in business, they have another card up their sleeve. Few people realize it, but Italy holds the world’s fourth biggest stockpile of gold, at 2,452 tonnes. ...

The truth about Kim Kardashian’s taxes; Commentary: Facts, schmacts on the Internet — again

BOSTON (MarketWatch) — It takes a lot to get me to write about Kim Kardashian. Let alone to come to her defense. But this week a pressure group in California, campaigning for higher taxes on the rich, has done just that.

In 2012, something’s gotta give; Commentary: Stocks, bonds, the euro, China — all under pressure

BOSTON (MarketWatch) — Get ready for 2012. Because if the markets around the world are to be believed, this is the year when something’s gotta give.

Buy Signals: How to Decipher Stock Buybacks

American companies are gobbling up their own stock. Investors who view that as a buy signal, however, should consider that some repurchases bode much better than others for future stock performance.

'Safe' Stocks Off to Wobbly Start in 2012; Hough: Consumer staples shares have been stars in recent years. Now they look vulnerable.

Stock investors are having a mostly happy new year. The S&P 500-stock index returned around 5% through Friday. And yet the slice of the index that represents safety to many investors -- consumer staples -- is down slightly.

The euro-crisis horror show; Commentary: Suspense over Europe’s fate may be worse than reality

BOSTON (MarketWatch) — Watching the European crisis takes me back to a moment at my English boarding school a couple of decades ago. About 70 of my fellow students were sitting in the dark in the communal TV room late on Saturday night, ...

Hidden in Your Value Fund: Bank Stocks; Arends: Financial stocks can make a value mutual fund uncomfortably volatile.

Aunt Sally has a problem. We all do, really, but especially Aunt Sally. Where is she supposed to put her savings? Interest rates on certificates of deposit are pitiful. Treasury bonds are little better: A five-year Treasury pays 1 percent, ...

Bottom-Fishing: Netflix Vs. H-P; Hough: Both stocks have been shattered of late. Which offers investors the better deal?

Netflix and Hewlett-Packard are dissimilar companies that have met a common fate: a spectacular loss of popularity on Wall Street. The causes of these declines are more alike than different.

Harnessing the Anything-Goes IRA; Investors in Self-Directed Accounts Face New Fraud Threats

Tired of the stock market's wild ups and downs, a growing number of investors are opening self-directed IRAs, which allow them to hold real estate, precious metals and other alternative investments.

Signs of Hope for Investors Waiting to Get Back In

Just in time for Christmas, there is a sprinkling of good news for investors. Jobless claims are the lowest since April 2008, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Housing starts hit their highest level since April 2010. Companies are ...

Low-volatility ETFs can carry a high price; Commentary: New funds cut risk — and potential for greater return

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The stock market quaked with volatility last year, and some gurus are predicting more rocking and rolling for 2012. Smelling opportunity, exchange-traded fund providers are gearing up to offer new indexes and ...

Gushing Oil Prices: Which Consumers Will Feel It First?

'Cloud' Stocks With Less Risk

For a way to invest in "cloud computing" without paying a stratospheric price, take a cue from Wall Street's newest tech enthusiast: Warren Buffett.

How to make ‘zillions’ on Wall Street; Commentary: Anyone can try their hand at the stock-options game

BOSTON (MarketWatch) — When it comes to Wall Street, a lot of people are like Dilbert’s boss. Anything they don’t understand, they figure, must be easy to do.

Analysts' Picks No Better Than Throwing Darts; Arends: It's the time of year when the geniuses on Wall Street tell you the best stocks to buy for the year ahead. Don't listen.

It's the time of year when the geniuses on Wall Street tell you the best stocks to buy for the year ahead. So-called "analysts' top picks" are a popular topic on the Street of Shame. For some people it's just a ...

How to Profit From Analysts' Stock Recommendations

If Wall Street's stock tips were reliable, portfolio selection would be easy. Investors could simply load up on Apple because analysts give it more positive ratings like "buy" and "outperform" than any other stock, ...

Big Fracking Deal: The Looming Takeover Boom in Oil; Hough: Investors with an appetite for risk might want to drill deeper into the oil sector to find smaller firms sitting on U.S. oil-shale riches.

Energy profits are booming and Big Oil shares look inexpensive. But investors with an appetite for risk might want to drill deeper into the sector to find smaller firms sitting on U.S. oil-shale riches -- which make tempting takeover ...

2011's Winners Tank in 2012

Last year's stock-market goats are this year's heroes, and vice versa. But investors betting that the reversal will persist should tread carefully, analysts say.

Why Investors Should Sell Their Losers Now; Hough: Investors tend to wait until year's end for tax loss harvesting. That's a mistake.

There are 23 trading days left in 2011 -- plenty of time to sell losing stocks for tax purposes. But investors shouldn't wait, for two reasons.

Diamond Shares: Tasty or Nuts?

Dividend Stock Guide for Boomers; Hough: Firms that supply boomers with steady dividends will be in high demand.

By 2030, around 20 percent of the U.S. population will be 65 and older, up from 13 percent today, reckons the Census Bureau. There's a gloomy theory on how that will affect stocks. As boomers earned and saved in the 1980s and 1990s, ...

Why Merkel-Sarkozy pact is doomed to fail; Commentary: Greece and Portugal have no reason to accept plan

BOSTON (MarketWatch) — If you want to understand the latest Franco-German proposal to “save” the euro, imagine this. Imagine the governments of China and Japan demanding they be given the legal right to override the U.S. budget’s legislative ...

How to Invest in China; Hough: The country's economy may be slowing, but long-term stock investors should still gain some exposure.

China's economy has swelled four times in size in a decade, but growth is slowing. Market forecasters are locked in a debate over what comes next.

Why the U.S. May Be Your Best Bet; Domestic Markets Have Improving Fundamentals; Plus, 'You Have to Be Pretty Brave to Bottom-Fish Now in Europe'

A new year, an old investor dilemma: Is it better to run with last year's biggest winner even though it has gotten pricier, or to shift money into the losers even though they might have further to fall?

Getting back to the gold standard; Commentary: Jim Grant says gold, not paper currency, is the future

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Jim Grant’s rise to power may be delayed. The legendary Wall Street writer, publisher of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, has been mentioned by two of the rivals for the Republican presidential nomination. Newt ...