After a two-week> government assault on Goldman Sachs and the investment community, it might seem somewhat counterintuitive to be funneling dollars into ORIX. This diversified, multinational financial services company has interests in leasing, lending and real estate securitization, positions Sen. Carl Levin might describe as the moral equivalent of armed robbery.
ORIX is based in Japan but operates in more than 24 countries. The firm works within a variety of financial businesses, including lending, life insurance, auto, IT and equipment leasing, real estate development and management, trust and loans. Like other financial firms, the company was crushed over the past couple of years shares plummeted from $160 in 2007 to under $10 in 2009.
ORIX fits the archetype of a less-liquid, off-the-radar screen idea we wrote about a few weeks back. Despite a $10 billion market cap and inclusion in the TOPIX stock index, the company s U.S.-listed ADRs rarely trade 20,000 shares a day. Message boards, Twitter postings and general crowd interest seem thin.
( Luck exists in the leftovers )
Nokorimono ni wa fuku ga aru
ORIX Corp. (ORIX) -- 2 years>
But something unexpected happened to the company's stock last week. Even as Goldman Sachs, which engages in many similar lines of business, was being harangued, shares of ORIX managed to eclipse recent highs. The gains were a telling and influential indicator.
ORIX first established a Hong Kong-based subsidiary
As with every investment, what matters most isn t so much what you trade, but how you trade it -- the technique and discipline you use when dealing with the uncertainty of the markets. Trading ORIX is no exception. That means starting with an appropriate position size, between 1.5% and 5% of your portfolio.
Now at $45, investors should consider shares at current or higher prices. Forty-six dollars a share is a better buy than $44, staying away from cheap prices (and gaps in the chart) near $41, $39 and $34.
It may sound odd to advocate buying at higher prices. But consider that we too often rummage through the worst possible stocks, the bulletin board or penny stock sitting in the valley of a multiyear low, all in the name of timing.
Yet, the true test of a successfully timed trade is not whether you bought in a trough, but whether you benefited later from a gain. Here, because we know that markets tend to move in trends that persist over time, we can see how ORIX is a better buy at $45 on its way to $90 than it was a $22 on its way to $45.
Stocks are like sushi. You don t want a bargain. Better to pay full price for quality than waste your risk capital on a subpar trade.
At the time or writing, Hoenig s fund held positions in many of the securities mentioned.>