All Hope Isn't Lost for U.S. Auto Makers

Washington seems on the brink of extending a lifeline to the Detroit auto industry, at least long enough for this Congress to hand the problem off to President-elect Barack Obama. In my view, it could actually be a good investment.

This may seem surprising coming from someone who's railed against the U.S. auto industry for years, and believes most of its troubles are of its own making. Detroit made a disastrous bet on SUVs and trucks, choosing to make its last stand on the wrong side of the environment, energy supplies, highway safety and consumer tastes, while foreign competitors ran away with every other segment of the market. And yet deep inside of me beats the heart of an American car lover, even though I've never owned one in my adult life.

At age 16, I took my driving test in a 1967 turquoise blue Mustang hardtop. The test got off to a bad start when the seat belts were wedged behind the seats, never having been used as far as I could tell. Badly rattled by the obvious disapproval of the inspector, I proceeded to fail on multiple counts, neglecting to properly turn the wheels on the downhill parking maneuver being the last straw. This was doubly embarrassing when my friends, waiting for me to pick them up that evening, discovered my mother in the driver's seat. But once I recovered and passed on the second try, the Mustang was the key to new-found popularity.

Even so, nostalgia doesn't explain why I remain a Ford Motor (F) shareholder, when obviously I should have taken my profits and sold last year, when Ford shares spiked on news of a quarterly profit. I also owned a Ford bond, which matured in September. I still own a GMAC bond that matures on Monday. When I bought it at a discount three years ago during the last big auto crisis, I never dreamed this investment would turn into such a cliffhanger. I've never believed GMAC (now majority owned by Cerberus Capital Management) would be bankrupt by Dec. 15, but in recent weeks the bond has been trading between 70 and 80 cents on the dollar, meaning investors must think there's a big risk. (On Monday it jumped to 95 cents, so things are looking up.) I'm counting the days until this is resolved.

Fortunately I don't have so much at stake financially that I've been losing any sleep over the fate of the U.S. auto companies. But I do think they deserve a lifeline while they pursue the radical restructuring and new product development that they've promised and, at least in Ford's case, I believe is well underway. Paradoxically, the recent shocks of high gas prices, a collapse in consumer confidence, and the credit crisis none of them the fault of the auto companies create a historic opportunity to win back the loyalty of generations of customers. I'm a case in point.

At the moment I'm a member of an endangered species: a bona fide car buyer. I've been shopping for a new car because my current lease on a 2007 Infiniti M35x expires in January. As I've said before, I'll be sad to part with the Infiniti, which has had flawless performance in every respect but one: The paltry 20 miles to the gallon it averages in highway and city driving. I am now going green, a late convert to be sure, but a motivated one. I've been looking only at cars that exceed 30 miles to the gallon, a surprisingly small field.

On a recent visit to my hometown in Illinois, my mother and I dropped in at the local Ford dealer. I wanted to see the Escape Hybrid (34 city/31 highway, according to Environmental Protection Agency data for 2009 models) and thought she, still loyal to an aging Buick Park Avenue, might be interested in the new Taurus or Sable (18/28). Even though this was in the depths of November's consumer-spending collapse, the spacious, inviting Ford showroom was bustling with activity. The glossy new Lincoln MKS and Ford Flex looked like dinosaurs, but the Escape Hybrids were sold out. I tried a nonhybrid (20/28) and liked it, even though the fuel efficiency didn't pass muster. The helpful salesman said he could rustle one up from another dealer, but only at list price, which starts at just under $30,000. And I thought dealers were practically giving cars away.

Back in Manhattan, I called on the local MINI Cooper dealer to see the MINI Clubman (25/34). The MINI showroom is attached to the BMW dealer (MINI is owned by BMW), and in contrast to the Midwestern Ford dealer, the BMW showroom was moribund. Salesmen looked so dispirited that, heads buried in their hands and slumped at their desks, no one even looked up as I walked by. There was only one other customer at MINI during my visit. Even so, there were no deals offered MINI has a list price-only policy and a six- to eight-week wait. The saleswoman told me that MINI sales had indeed slowed, but only from the blistering pace of earlier in the year, when the entire production of 2008 models sold out. I test drove the Clubman and liked it, too, especially the surprisingly roomy interior dimensions for such a small car.

My quest continues. The clean diesel Volkswagen Jetta TDI (29/40) boasts amazing fuel efficiency but no Manhattan dealership, and of course there's always the Toyota Prius. My Internet research suggests that these models are selling at or even above their MSRPs. Obviously, there's a trend at work: Even in the midst of the worst sales sump in decades, these fuel-efficient models are not only selling, but at full price. No wonder Ford CEO Alan Mulally ditched the corporate jet and drove to Washington in an Escape Hybrid.

To me, this spells opportunity for Detroit. Although foreign auto makers seem to be in the lead yet again, there aren't so many attractive fuel-efficient vehicles available that Detroit can't catch up. Ford, in particular, is well on its way, which is why I still own the stock. (I rate it a hold, in part because I don't see any point in selling it at such a low price; I deem it too speculative for new investors.) The fact that I, once a die-hard performance and style fanatic, would seriously consider a Ford, suggests that there are plenty of other baby boomers willing to radically re-think their priorities. As I've said before, the only long-term solution for Detroit is to produce high-quality vehicles that consumers actually want. This should be the priority of any government monitor, and if it is, then warrants should pay off for taxpayers. Of course, the auto industry isn't the only one imperiled by circumstances beyond its control and likely won't be the last asking for help. But if the government can make this work, it could set a template for future rescues.

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