An Un-FortuNet Bet

Here's our weekly look at small-capitalization stocks that are making big moves on Wall Street.

IT'S FITTING THAT FortuNet's fate is so tied to Las Vegas. To invest in the company, you have to be prepared to make a very big bet.

With many small-cap stocks, you're taking a chance that a future event, like approval of a drug or a big contract win, will help lift a company from obscurity and provide big returns. But with FortuNet, which makes a mobile-gaming system that allows people to continue to bet even if they're, say, in the lobby of a casino, there's a big date looming next week. And, depending on what happens on Sept. 21, people who have gone all in will either own all the chips or walk away with their pockets empty.

On that date, the Nevada Gaming Commission is set to act on a recommendation to allow FortuNet to get a license to operate a mobile gaming system in the state. On Sept. 7, the Nevada Gaming Control Board, another regulatory body, recommended that the company get the license, and, since then, the stock has been on a tear, rocketing 130% to $15.92, and hitting an intraday high of $18.20.

That poses a problem for investors who want to get in now. Obviously, approval is priced into the stock. That means that, even if approval comes, the upside is limited.

For its part, the company is being fairly conservative in talking about getting the license. "The gaming commission has the final authority on gaming matters and they may accept or not," says Yuri Itkis, FortuNet's chairman and co-founder. "Past experience is that they accept the recommendations of the gaming board. This is the general scheme of things."

If it doesn't get approval, expect a bloodbath. All that new money and even some old money is likely to come pouring out. Let's just say FortuNet doesn't have the most committed shareholder base, judging by how volatile this stock has been this year.

The company, which is based in Las Vegas, went public on Jan. 31 at $9 a share, and essentially stayed flat until mid-March. That's when Nevada became the first state to approve regulations allowing portable bingo devices to move outside the gambling halls and into a casino's public areas. In addition to bingo, the rules allow for betting in poker, blackjack and horse racing. Opponents of the rules say this will make it easier for minors to gamble.

Then, on May 4, the company leading the charge to wireless gaming, Cantor G&W, won the first license to manufacture and distribute its devices. The next day FortuNet's stock soared to an all-time closing high of $24.51.

Then began a sharp four-month freefall that saw the company lose more than two-thirds of its value and it can all be blamed on the company's own performance. FortuNet was late with its very first earnings report as a public company. And it disappointed on earnings. For the quarter ended June 30, the company essentially broke even with net income of $17,211, compared with $505,579, or six cents a share, in the year-ago quarter. Revenues grew 12% to $4 million. That was short of Wall Street expectations of two cents a share on sales of $5 million. FortuNet blamed the profit dropoff on $458,079 in legal expenses related to a patent-infringement lawsuit and additional costs to going public. The year-earlier quarter saw legal fees of $88,000.

The stock finally bottomed out at an all-time low of $6.84 the day before the recent news of preliminary approval came out. Since then, investors have ridden it back up.

"It's a volatile stock, no doubt about it," says John Roy, an analyst at W.R. Hambrecht, the San Francisco investment bank that co-managed the IPO. "The company is posting low double-digit growth in bingo, so everyone is betting on the new stuff coming through. I like the company. I think the stock can go to $30 a share and give it a $1.94 estimate for next year. But, that's only doable if this gets approved for sales in the first quarter."

Whether the run-up is warranted is even an open question. Even if FortuNet wins the license, its system then needs to get tested, which could take a year. And other players in the market could end up with more share. Indeed, if all goes well next week, FortuNet will become the third company to receive approval. Slot machine giant International Game Technology also won approval.

It's enough to make even the most seasoned gambler consider folding.

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