ByANNAMARIA ANDRIOTIS
After weeks of >disappointing housing reports from the government and realtors, new data released Monday could offer some hope for a stalled market.
The annual rate of new home sales climbed in June to 330,000 units, up 23.6% from May. The rate was well above the 295,000 units a year that economists polled by Briefing.com had expected.
New home sales are still down 16.7% from June 2009, but last month's surprising data suggest the housing market may have a lifelife even without the homebuyer's tax credit, which expired for most potential buyers at the end of April.
New homes appear to be selling far better than old ones. The annual rate of existing home sales fell 5.1% in June.
The supply of new homes slipped to 7.6 months in June, down from a revised 9.6 months in May, but still higher than the five- to six-month supply that would characterize a healthy market. Although vacancy rates in the U.S. have improved in recent quarters, the majority of the U.S. remains oversupplied compared to history, John Burns, CEO of John Burns Real Estate Consulting, wrote in a report. He adds that only five states are undersupplied: Oklahoma, New Mexico, North Dakota, Montana and Alaska.
Whether the June improvement in new home sales suggests a firm pickup in real estate or just a temporary spike is unclear. Although home prices remain relatively depressed and mortgage rates are near record lows, the market continues to face several downward pressures including a persistently high unemployment rate.
For the rest of the year, the pace at which employment improves will likely be the biggest factor impacting home sales, according to an American Century Investments report. Over the longer (one- to three-year time frame), very little else can contribute more to recovery in the residential housing market than reduced unemployment accompanied by rising incomes and increased consumer confidence, according to the report.
Separately, new and existing home sales may suffer yet as the market moves further away from the tax credit expiration date.
Uncertainty over the market could persist for the next few months. Investors are already feeling the impact of the slowing housing market in volatility among stocks tied to the market. The Standard & Poor s Supercomposite Homebuilder Index, which tracks building shares including Toll Brothers (TOL)
Wall Street now awaits data from the Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, which is scheduled to be released Tuesday. The index tracks home prices in the largest 20 metropolitan areas in the U.S. Economists polled by Briefing.com expect a June reading 4% higher than a year ago.



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